或许，华尔街分析师们只有把苹果（Apple）的业绩数据估得低一点才能感到放心。或许，他们还在对上个季度自己给出的预测值过高（仅此一次）耿耿于怀。或许，他们对Mac、iPhone和iPad销售空前火爆的报道心存怀疑。

    不管是什么原因，尽管几乎人人都觉得这是苹果有史以来最好的季度，但华尔街给出的业绩预期却低得可疑。

    我们的基准和以往一样，是跟踪苹果的独立分析师、日益壮大的博客群体、私人投资者和形形色色的业余人士给出的普遍预期。事实证明，多年来他们的预测远比华尔街准确。

    当然，华尔街的普遍预期也在逐步向博客圈的预期靠拢。三个月前华尔街还在预计苹果每股收益8.98美元。但现在，汤森路透（Thomson Reuters）的数据显示，华尔街的预期已调高至9.95美元。

    但这仍比独立分析人士的普遍预期11.96美元低了20%还多。

    单营收一项，华尔街的普遍预期（385.8亿美元）与独立分析师的预期（430.3亿美元）差距已接近非洲一个中等规模国家一年的GDP。

    各分析师之间的预测差距则更加惊人。每股收益预期最低的是市场研究公司Gabelli分析师亨迪•苏珊托，仅为8.88美元；最高的则是苹果独立分析师奈维•奈格拉尼，达到了12.80美元 。

    Perhaps professional analysts are just more comfortable underestimating Apple (AAPL). Perhaps they're still smarting from last quarter, when their numbers (for once) came in too high. Perhaps they're suspicious of reports that suggest that Mac and iPhone and iPad sales have never been so strong.

    For whatever reason, Wall Street's estimates for what everybody seems to agree will be Apple's best quarter ever look suspiciously low.

    Our benchmark, as usual, is the consensus of the Apple independent analysts, a growing community of bloggers, private investors and assorted amateurs whose estimates over the years have proved considerably more accurate than Wall Street's.

    The Street's consensus, to be sure, has been inching closer to the bloggers. Three months ago the pros were calling for earnings of $8.98 per share. Today, according to Thomson Reuters, the consensus EPS is $9.95.

    But that's still more than 20% below $11.96, the consensus offered by the independents.

    In terms of revenue, the gap between the Street's consensus ($38.58 billion) and the indies' ($43.03 billion) is roughly equivalent to the gross national product of medium-size African nation.

    The disparity is even more striking when you look at individual calls. The EPS estimates range from a low of $8.88 filed by Gabelli's Hendi Susanto to a high of $12.80 from Navin Nagrani of AAPL Independent Analysts.