摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）看到了中国市场的光明前景：衣着考究的中国男女人手一部iPhone。

    凯蒂•休伯蒂在周日致客户的一份报告中援引摩根士丹利的AlphaWise调查，描绘了苹果（Apple）不负众望，最终与中国移动（China Mobile）和中国电信（China Telecom）达成交易后，中国大陆智能手机市场的“钱途”。AlphaWise的调查反映了中国迅速壮大的中产阶层的购买模式。

    休伯蒂的观点如下：

    • 目前中国大约有1.5亿高端移动用户，其每月话费至少为100人民币（16美元）。

    • 目前，苹果在中国的唯一官方运营商、中国联通（China Unicom）拥有1,500万高端用户，约占中国高端用户总数的十分之一。

   • 今年年底或明年初，苹果将开始通过中国移动（拥有1.2亿高端用户）和中国电信（拥有1,500万高端用户）销售新一代iPhone。

    • 五分之一的中国联通高端用户购买了iPhone，而其它两家运营商的用户预计也会步他们的后尘。（8%的中国移动高端用户已经在使用iPhone，虽然他们仅仅只能使用2G业务。）

    • 假设市场渗透率为20%，那么到2013年，苹果至少能多卖出2,400万部iPhone，使该公司的每股收益增长6.5美元。

    • 随着iPhone日益流行和（中国）中产阶级队伍的不断壮大，到明年，苹果iPhone的销售增量有望继续上升，达到近4,000万部，为其每股收益再添砖加瓦10美元。

    Morgan Stanley has seen the future and it's a well-heeled Chinese man (or woman) with an iPhone.

    In a note to clients Sunday, Katy Huberty drew on Morgan Stanley's proprietary AlphaWise survey of buying patterns among China's rapidly growing middle class to paint a picture of the smartphone market on the mainland after Apple (AAPL), as widely expected, finally signs deals with China Mobile (CHL) and China Telecom (CHA).

    She assumes:

    • That there are roughly 150 million high-end subscribers in China currently paying at least RMB 100 ($16) per month for mobile phone service.

    • That China Unicom (CHU), currently Apple's only official carrier, has 15 million of those subscribers, or roughly 10%.

    • That late this year or early next, Apple will begin selling next-generation iPhones through China Mobile (120 million high-end subscribers) and China Telecom (15 million).

    • That because 20% of China Unicom's high-end subscribers buy iPhones, the other two carriers' subscribers will follow suit. (8% China Mobile's high-end customers already use iPhones, even though they get only 2G service.)

    • Assuming 20% penetration, Apple should see, at a minimum, 24 million addition iPhone sales in 2013, adding $6.5o per share to the company's bottom line.

    • As the iPhone catches on and the middle class expands, that number could grow to nearly 40 million next year, adding $10 to Apple's earnings per share.