曾几何时，摩托罗拉（Motorola）统治着全球的手机行业，然后是诺基亚（Nokia），再然后是黑莓（BlackBerry），但现在它们都已走下了神坛。就像《财富》杂志（Fortune）最近一篇黑莓评论文章的题目，你一定在想，“到底是怎么回事？”

    这个问题同样适用于现在已经破产的柯达（Kodak），那可是一个世纪以来的影像行业的全球霸主。而只有区区十几个员工的Instagram靠着照片分享服务就被Facebook以10亿美元高价收购。说到过气明星，惠普（Hewlett-Packard）怎么了？雅虎（Yahoo）怎么了？

    我们现在所处的经济环境非比寻常。过去5年的翻云覆雨让许多商业人士开始思考公司面临的最基本问题：我们的战略在当下的环境中还管用吗？我们应该作出什么改变？我们应该坚持哪些东西？我们是否需要新的商业模式？

    但重新审视公司战略也可能会让你陷入迷雾，费时费力，到头来又回到原地。如何来管理这个过程呢？回答下面3个问题，也许你就能理清今天的纷纷扰扰，找到战略方向。

    1、公司的核心业务是什么？

    在各个经济周期中颠补不破的一个真理是：不管在波峰波谷，业绩最好的公司一直都投资于其核心业务。看看杜邦（Dupont）在大萧条期间的所作所为吧。即使利润狂跌，公司仍然坚持为化学研究投入资金，因为那始终是公司的核心业务。再来看看他们的回报：尼龙、氯丁橡胶以及其它产品在未来的岁月里为杜邦带来了数十亿美元的收入。

    日子好过的时候，公司往往不由自主地涉足其它行业，即使他们在该领域并无专长。然后当经济衰退来临的时候，这些非核心业务的肥皂泡破灭，难逃被裁撤的命运。音像专家先锋公司（Pioneer）在最近的经济危机中退出了竞争惨烈的平板电视领域。家得宝（Home Depot）也关闭了Expo品牌的家装设计连锁中心。就连谷歌（Google）业停止了在电台和报纸上出售广告的非核心业务。

    卓越的公司都很清楚什么是他们的核心业务。衰退初期，软件公司Intuit的首席执行官布拉德•史密斯说：“我们不会裁撤创新力量。本公司过去25年都是由产品创新来推动。我们要保护创新渠道，只有这样，危机结束时我们才会变得更强大。”如有必要，他会裁减其它部门。在个人及小型企业财务软件领域，公司面对着微软（Microsoft）这样的巨无霸对手，他无法承担哪怕是一丁点的落后。

    你能确定公司的核心业务吗？如果不能，你就需要在全公司范围内展开深刻的反省。

    2、眼下前所未有的经济环境如何改变了公司的客户及其行为？

    我们都很熟悉大萧条一代对待投资和工作的超级谨慎态度。在这次历史性的衰退中的经历改变了几百万人的一生，今日的情形何其相似乃尔。作为一个小小的例子，数家金融公司应景地推出了“超级安全”的投资工具（往往还收取高额费用）。而惊恐的投资者也愿意为安全支付更多费用，这是他们长久以来所未曾做过的事情。

    苦日子的其它影响可能更让人吃惊。在发达国家，人们的身体状况反而会在经济衰退时改善，可能是因为大家吃得更健康，少喝酒，还可能少抽烟，少坐车。在前两次衰退中，消费者在广泛定义的娱乐方面花费减少，而普遍的看法是人们在世道艰难时会更多地从娱乐中寻求欢乐。【根据麦肯锡（McKinsey）编制的信息，在该公司所研究的所有类别中】花费增加最多的类别是教育。确实出人意表，因为教育是非必需的花费，而且要过好几年才能产生收益。看来，很多人觉得既然找不到工作，不如先提升自己的竞争力。人们开始接受衰退的现实之后，美国大学商学院的申请人数开始飙升。

    今日的环境如何改变你的客户？影响也许出乎你的想象，而你应该迅速发现这些改变，并及时应对。

    Remember when Motorola (MMI) ruled the mobile phone business worldwide? And then Nokia (NOK) did? And then BlackBerry (RIMM) did? And now none of them do? As Fortune headlined a recent BlackBerry article, "What the Hell Happened?"

    We all ask the same question about Kodak, monarch of the global photo industry for a century, now bankrupt, while Instagram, a photo-sharing service with a dozen employees, is sold to Facebook (FB) for $1 billion. And while we're at it, what happened to Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)? To Yahoo (YHOO)?

    We're not living in ordinary economic times. The convulsions of the past five years have left many business people asking the most fundamental questions about their companies: Will our strategy work in this environment? What must we change, and what must we not change? Do we need a new business model?

    Reconsidering strategy can turn into a miasma that consumes endless time and yields nothing. Yet the process is manageable. One way to think through your strategy in today's uncertain environment is to answer three basic questions.

    1. What is our core?

    A finding that's consistent across cycles is that the best performing companies keep investing in their core no matter how bad things get. Look at what Dupont (DD) did during the Great Depression. Even as profits plunged, the company resolved to keep funding chemical research -- its core -- no matter what. Among the results: nylon, neoprene, and other products that brought Dupont billions of dollars over the following decades.

    In good times, companies often wander into businesses for which they command no special capability. Then, when a downturn hits, those non-core businesses blow up and have to be axed. Pioneer bailed out of the grindingly competitive flat-screen TV business in the recent recession. Home Depot (HD) shut down its Expo chain of home design centers. Google (GOOG) closed non-core businesses that sold advertising on radio stations and in newspapers.

    Excellent companies are certain of their core. Early on in the recession, Brad Smith, CEO of software firm Intuit (INTU), said, "We're not going to cut innovation. This company for 25 years has been fueled by new product innovation. We're protecting the innovation pipeline so we come out of this strong." He would cut elsewhere if necessary, but in the realm of personal and small business finance software, he's up against mammoth competitors, including Microsoft (MSFT). He cannot afford to fall even a fraction of a generation behind.

    Are you sure of your company's core? If not, you've got to do some corporate soul-searching.

    2. How is today's unprecedented environment changing our customers and their behavior?

    We're all familiar with the Depression generation's ultra-cautious attitudes toward investing and jobs. Millions of people were shaped for life by the experience of a historic downturn, and similar effects are happening today. In response, as one example among many, several financial firms market "ultra-safe" investment vehicles (often with considerable fees attached). Rattled investors are willing to pay more for safety than they have been in a long time.

    Other effects of bad times are more surprising. In developed economies, physical health tends to improve during a downturn, possibly because people eat healthier food, drink less, possibly smoke less, and drive less. In the previous two recessions, consumers spent less on entertainment, broadly defined, though conventional wisdom holds that people spend more on entertainment to cheer themselves up when times are tough. The category of spending that increased most (among those studied by McKinsey, which compiled this information) was education -- surprising, since it's a discretionary purchase that yields its benefits years into the future. Many people apparently figured they might as well improve their employability at a time when they can't get a job. As the most recent downturn began to take hold, applications to U.S. business schools rose markedly.

    How is today's environment changing your customers? The effects may be counterintuitive, and you should discover and address them quickly.