过去几天，至少已有五位分析师根据苹果公司（Apple）削减2013年初iPhone 5订单的报道，调低了苹果公司股票的目标价，分别是：瑞银（UBS）的史蒂夫·米洛诺维奇（从775美元降至700美元），花旗（Citi）的格伦·扬（从675美元降至575美元），Canaccord的迈克尔·沃基（从800美元降至750美元），瑞穗（Mizuho）的艾比·兰姆巴(从750美元降至600美元)和太平洋皇冠证券公司（Pacific Crest）的安迪·哈格瑞弗(从645美元降至565美元)。

    所有这五位分析师似乎都是基于这样的假设，苹果削减订单是因为iPhone 5销量不如预期——这种推断有点站不住脚，看看苹果公布的两个iPhone 5销售数据就知道了:9月份iPhone 5全球首发以及上周末中国首发时，销量都刷新了纪录。

    那么，苹果削减iPhone 5零部件订单是另有其他原因吗？我们听到了两种不同的说法：

    苹果iPhone 5的产出率提高了。正如Business Insider的贾·亚罗表示：“可能是以前苹果认为iPhone 5的生产难度很大，下的（零部件）订单量较大。结果生产难度还可以，所以苹果可以削减订单了。”

    苹果正在控制库存，为6月份当季推出一款新的iPhone做准备。这是苹果前首席执行官约翰·斯卡利倾向的说法。“我想，他们在产品周期上有一个很大的调整，”他告诉消费者新闻与财经电视频道（CNBC）：“传统上，苹果的新品推出是每年一次；现在事实上是每年两次。从供应链角度，这样做极其复杂，但苹果似乎做得不错。因此，我想人们可能低估了目前苹果经营状况有多好，以及一旦苹果适应了每年两次新品推出后，该公司将取得的成功。”

    响应斯卡利的说法，Asymco的贺拉斯·德迪乌已收集了六条间接证据。在我看来，这些证据非常有说服力。请点击查看《S代表着春天吗？》

    译者：早稻米

    At least five analysts lowered their Apple (AAPL) price targets in the past few days based on reports that the company has reduced its iPhone 5 orders for early 2013: UBS' Steve Milunovich (to $700 from $775), Citi's Glen Yeung ($575 from $675), Canaccord's T. Michael Walkley ($750 from $800), Mizuho's Abbey Lamba ($600 from $750) and Pacific Crest's Andy Hargreaves ($565 from $645).

    All five seem to be operating on the assumption that Apple cut its orders because the company is selling fewer iPhone 5s than expected -- a theory undercut somewhat by the only two things Apple has said about iPhone 5 sales: That they broke records in September, when the device was first released, and last weekend, when it launched in China.

    So are there other reasons Apple may have cut back on iPhone 5 parts orders? We've heard two competing theories:

    Apple is making the iPhone 5 more efficiently. As Business Insider's Jay Yarow put it: "Apple may have put in a bigger manufacturing order under the assumption that the iPhone 5 was going to be hard to make. Turns out it's not that hard to make, so Apple can cut its order."

    Apple is clearing the decks for a new iPhone in the June quarter. This is the theory favored by former Apple CEO John Sculley. "I think they're going through a very significant change now in terms of product cycles," he told CNBC. "Traditionally Apple introduces products once a year; now it's really introducing products twice a year. The complexity of that from a supply chain is immense, and Apple seems to be doing it well. So, I think that people are underestimating just how well Apple is run, and just how successful the company can be when it gets to that twice-a-year product introduction cycle."

    In support of Sculley's theory, Asymco's Horace Dediu has collected half a dozen pieces of what he describes as circumstantial evidence. They seem pretty convincing to me. See Does S stand for Spring?