美国咨询公司高德纳（Gartner）于上周三发布了《全球手机销量》报告，IDC和康姆斯科（comScore）紧随其后，双双于上周四发布了彩色柱状图，表明各自对智能手机大战当前战况的看法——IDC（上）分析了全球市场，而康姆斯科（下）则分析了美国国内市场的状况。

    笔者的见解是：

    • 以上两张图表都清晰地表明，智能手机市场已呈两虎相争之势，不论是在美国国内还是全球市场，苹果（Apple）iOS和谷歌（Google）Android都占据了90％以上的市场份额。落败者们看来唯有期盼奇迹才有可能追上。

    • 虽然Android的全球市场份额在2012年增至约70％，但据IDC和高德纳（参见下方统计）的数据，Android的增速在第三季度趋于平稳。关于这点，IDC的季度图（上）比康姆斯科的3个月平均变化图（下）更明显。

    • 虽然苹果在2012年底的全球市场份额（约21％）小于它在2011年年底的份额（约23％），但从IDC的柱状图中可以看出，上个季度，随着iPhone5发布、iPhone 4和iPhone 4S降价，苹果的市场份额再度呈现上升态势。

    IDC和高德纳的数据统计如下所示：

    Hard on the heels of Gartner's Worldwide Mobile Phone Sales report Wednesday, IDC and comScore both released colorful bar graphs Thursday representing their view of the current state of the smartphone wars -- the world war (top) from IDC, and U.S. war (bottom) from comScore.

    A few observations:

    • The extent to which the smartphone wars have become a two-man race is clear in both charts, with Apple's (AAPL) iOS and Google's (GOOG) Android controlling more than 90% of both the U.S. and the worldwide markets. The also-rans would have to execute sharp uphill sprints to catch up.

    • Although Android's worldwide market share grew to approximately 70% in 2012 according to both IDC and Gartner (see spreadsheets below the fold), Android's rate of growth leveled off in the third quarter. That's easier to see in IDC's quarter-by-quarter chart (top) than in comScore's three-month moving average (bottom).

    • Although Apple finished 2012 with a smaller global market share than it enjoyed at the end of 2011 (about 21% vs. about 23%), you can see in IDC's bar graph that it was re-gaining share last quarter, after the release of the iPhone 5 and the price cuts on the iPhone 4 and 4S.

    Below: IDC's and Gartner's spreadsheets.