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专栏 - 苹果2_0

巴克莱年内首次上调苹果目标股价

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年05月09日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
鉴于苹果公司股票回购的积极反响和苹果有望在今年9月发布新款iPhone的预期,巴克莱银行的分析师本•特雷兹把苹果的目标股价上调了13%,从465美元调高到了525美元。

    自去年9月以来,苹果(Apple)股票不幸坠入熊市。在此期间,分析师们为它设定的目标股价也一直处于下行通道。不过,这种情况在本周一开始有所改观。

    巴克莱银行(Barclays)分析师本•雷特兹一反常态,将苹果未来12个月的目标股价上调至525美元。三周前,即苹果召开2013财年第二财季营收电话会议前,特雷兹曾将苹果股价设定为465美元(见上图中标黄部分)。

    特雷兹在致客户的报告中写道:“我们认为苹果股票短期前景仍然向好。首先,我们比此前更看好苹果的毛利润率。鉴于质保预提、组合和苹果定价方面的潜在趋势,我们认为此前对第三以及第四季度的预测过于保守。其次,我们认为苹果近期将有所动作,投资者、分析师、消费者和广大媒体的目光将再度聚焦于苹果的新产品。6月10日,苹果将召开软件/服务/Mac发布会,而到了9月,它极有可能发布新款iPhone或iPad。再次,经过反思,我们认识到之前并未完全理解苹果加大股票回购计划是如此令人宽慰。因此,苹果此次大规模回购对其股价的推动效应可能比我们数周前估计的要大一些。”(财富中文网)

    译者:项航

    Like Apple's (AAPL) shares, the price targets analysts set for the company have been on a jagged downward slide since last September. Until Monday, that is.

    That's when Barclays' Ben Reitzes broke the streak and upped his 12-month target to $525 from the $465 valuation he set three weeks ago, just before Apple's March quarter earnings call.

    "We believe the near-term set up is still quite positive," he wrote in a note to clients. "First, we feel better about gross margins -- we believe that our estimates for the June and September quarters are conservative given potential trends in warranty accruals, mix and Apple's pricing plans. Second, we believe Apple is about to change the narrative and get investors, analysts, customers and the media finally talking about new products again -- starting with a software/services/Mac event on June 10th and a likely iPhone/iPad event in September. Third, upon further reflection -- we didn't fully appreciate at first how much of a relief it was for Apple to unveil a bigger buyback. As a result, the buyback's size may help the multiple a little more than we even thought a few weeks ago."

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