美国股市正在经历许多投资者“号称”期盼已久的那种回调吗？（尽管他们私下里也希望这次情况会有所不同）还是说，这只是由于人们对埃博拉下意识畏惧、对油价下跌困惑引起的短期市场波动？

    显然，目前要下定论为时尚早，但有一点可以肯定，那就是：过去几天的市场状况，已经使得IPO（首次公开发行）热度大减。虽然IPO的管道尚未完全阻断，但敞口肯定已有所收窄。

    IPO咨询公司Class V Group的莱斯利•普夫朗认为，如果市场持续波动，不会有太多公司继续推进上市，除非是（阿里巴巴那样的）异类企业。稳定性不足，估值忧虑过多，且IPO折扣率升高。另外，当市场触底时，投资者往往会减持较小型公司（如初上市公司）的股票，以筹集现金，支撑自身在较大企业的核心仓位。

    普夫朗表示：“如果市场波动太大，未来IPO折扣率将高于此前通行的15％，否则，银行和投资者对于买卖IPO股份会变得非常紧张。不过，需要注意的是，那些不断准备着，并且预备在市场重开时率先上市的公司，将受益最大。或许其估值不是最理想，但它们能多次进入市场吸金，并且给了新投资者更多的流动机会。”

    另一个开放性的问题是，市场大幅回调会对众多优质pre-IPO企业（那些已经以高估值进行了多轮股权融资的企业）造成何种影响？

    换言之，如果上述企业需要延迟上市，同时又没有妥善管理好自身烧钱的速度，那谁将挺身而出，参与下一轮投资（即便企业估值有所下降）？今年早些时候，公开市场对“软件即服务”类企业的估值大降，各共同基金、对冲基金迅速停止了支持此类公司，直到公开市场稳定后才重返该领域。

    可见，如果出现更广泛的市场低迷，共同基金、对冲基金将全面退出所有pre-IPO领域。而鉴于大多数此类企业已经完成了传统的后期风险投资，我们会看到，一波意料之外的并购热潮可能即将来临。（财富中文网）

    So, is this it? Is this the market correction that many investors have been publicly expecting, while privately hoping things are really different this time? Or is it just short-term volatility related to knee-jerk Ebola fears and confusion over falling oil prices.

    Obviously it’s too early to draw conclusions, except for this: What we’ve seen over the past few days has put a major chill in the IPO pipeline. Not quite cold enough to block it completely, but certainly the opening has narrowed.

    Leslie Pfrang, a principal with IPO advisory Class V Group, says that she can’t imagine too many new issuers moving forward if the volatility persists, save for large outliers (i.e., sub-Alibabas). Too little stability, too many valuation worries and widened IPO discounts. Plus, when markets bottom, investors tend to sell down positions in smaller holdings (i.e., recent IPO issuers) in order to raise cash for buttressing core positions in larger companies.

    “If the market is too volatile, you can’t just project the standard 15% IPO discount going forward, because banks and investors are going to be nervous about bringing it to market or buying it,” she says. “What’s important to keep an eye on, though, is that the companies that keep preparing and are ready to go first when the market reopens are able to benefit the most. Maybe they don’t get the best valuation, but they are able to access the market multiple times for capital and it gives new investors more liquidity opportunities.”

    Another open question is what a major correction would do to the legion of pre-IPO “unicorns,” which have raised huge equity rounds at high valuations.

    Namely, if they need to delay IPOs and haven’t properly managed burn rates, who is going to step up for the next round (even if it comes with a valuation haircut)? When public SaaS valuations tanked earlier this year, the mutual/hedge fund community stopped back such companies on a dime, only returning once the public markets stabilized.

    If this is a broader-based downturn, I could see them walking away from all sorts of sectors. And given that most of these companies already worked through the traditional later-stage VC class, it would seem that an unexpected M&A rush could be on the horizon.