在去年夏天的《财富》科技头脑风暴大会上（Fortune Brainstorm Tech），我与Uber的首席执行官特拉维斯•卡兰尼克聊了聊谁会认真考虑收购他的公司。我认为会是租车公司赫兹（Hertz），他笑着说这家公司“太小了”（很有先见之明，赫兹公司目前估值只有97.5亿美元）。随后我提到了谷歌（Google），他的嘴咧得更开了些，说：“至少他们买得起。”

    两天后传来消息，谷歌风投基金（Google Ventures）对Uber进行了一轮大规模投资，价值约为35亿美元。【在随后的一轮融资中，富达投资集团（Fidelity Investments）对Uber的估值高达180亿美元】。

    这次合作意义深远。谷歌得以利用这家美国最为炙手可热的数据驱动型消费公司。而Uber获得了数亿美元资金，拥有了一位来自大公司、经验丰富的董事长，以及一个隐含的保证：其竞争对手Lyft无法得到谷歌的投资了。此外，Uber还能用上谷歌的自动驾驶汽车。

    但这就是让我疑惑的地方：两家公司最终是否会展开竞争？所有人似乎都认为Uber未来方向是按需的同城快递，而“打车”更像是公司创立时的特色，而非主要服务。Uber已经建立了许多基础设施，并开始尝试在不同市场运营其他产品（比如上周在波士顿提供流感疫苗递送服务）。而考虑到谷歌最近推出了Express，他们无疑对按需送货也很感兴趣。

    我们假设两家公司都按照这样的计划继续发展，就能预想到在未来连耗时23小时的“当日”送达都会显得太慢。最明显的解决方案就是谷歌（市值3,700亿美元，手握600亿美元现金）直接收购Uber。这里唯一的问题在于，很难想象卡兰尼克会出售公司。没有人想凭空多出一个上司，即便他保证不多加干涉。而任何一个有理性的人也不想拥有卡兰尼克这样强势的直接下属。

    据此可以得出结论：尽管有过2013年的投资，然而两家公司依然会展开竞争。但这一过程可能会有些丑陋，尤其是考虑到谷歌仍然控制着搜索领域的主导权，而Uber试图快递的许多商品都依赖于它【亚马逊（Amazon）已然遭遇了这样的竞争】。

    这就是未来的情形。除非谷歌错过了时机，或是双方达成了某些商业协议，竞争才可能有所缓和。但当战略投资让双方都获益颇丰时，这类竞争的确可能发生。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    During the Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference last summer, I spent some time chatting with Uber CEO Travis Kalanick about who might make a serious acquisition run at his company. I suggested Hertz HTZ 0.42% , to which he smiled and said something along the lines of “too small” (that proved prescient, as Hertz is currently valued at only $9.75 billion). Then I mentioned Google GOOG 0.18% , to which he smiled a bit wider, and said “At least they could afford it.”

    Two days later, word came that Google, via its Google Ventures unit, had helped lead a massive investment in Uber at around a $3.5 billion valuation (a subsequent round, led by Fidelity Investments, valued Uber at $18 billion).

    The pairing made perfect sense. Google GOOG 0.18% got access to the country’s hottest data-driven consumer startup. Uber got hundreds of millions of dollars, an experienced big-company director and a tacit guarantee that rival Lyft wouldn’t be able to tap the Bank of Mountain View. Plus there’s the whole wildcard of self-driving cars.

    But here’s what I’m beginning to wonder: Are the two companies on an eventual collision course? Everyone seems to believe that Uber’s future is on-demand local delivery, with “rides” becoming a founding feature rather than a primary product. It already has built out much of the infrastructure, and has doing trial runs of other products in various markets (i.e., flu shots in Boston last week). Google, of course, also appears to have interest in on-demand delivery, given its recent Express roll-out.

    Let’s assume both companies continue moving forward with such plans, and envision a future where “same-day” delivery is about 23 hours too slow. The obvious solution would be for Google ($370b market cap, $60b in cash) to simply buy Uber. Only problem here is I can’t imagine Kalanick selling. Not the sort who wants a boss, even if that boss promises to be hands-off. Nor would any reasonable person want him as a powerful direct report.

    So that leads us to the two companies competing, despite the 2013 investment. And this is where it could get a bit ugly, particularly given that Google would still control the dominant search function for many of the goods Uber would be seeking to deliver (a battle Amazon already is fighting).

    Again, this is way down the road – and possibly mitigated by Google passing on the opportunity or the two sides forging some commercial deal – but it’s the sort of thing that can happen when a strategic investment works out too well for both sides.