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美国中情局新发现9100万“失踪”中国网民
作者:
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
时间:
2011年04月07日
来源: 财富中文网
位置：
数据来源：《中情局世界概况》
上次我们访问美国中央情报局（U.S. Central Intelligence Agency）的《世界概况》（World Factbook）时，其网民数量“各国对比”数据似乎严重过时，尽管该文件应该是每周更新的。特别是其去年12月统计的中国网民数量（2.98亿人）与维基百科（Wikipedia）上给出的数量（4.25亿人）相差1.27亿。
由于好几个原因，我们认为维基百科给出的数字更为可信，显然美国中情局同意此看法。
今年2月，美国中情局发布了一份更新，“赶上”了由用户生成内容的维基百科，有几处干脆就照搬维基百科引用的原始资料。最惊人的例子是尼日利亚，中情局去年12月统计的是1100万网民，而维基百科给出的数据是43,985,000人，几乎高出300%。而在中情局新的数据库里，列出的尼日利亚网民数为43,989,000人。
至于中国，中情局新的统计数字（3.89亿）仍然与维基百科给出的数字相差6000多万。不过这已经比两者之前的差额少了一半多，多亏美国中情局发现了它上次漏掉的9100万中国网民。
这些数字很重要，因为很多公司有意无意的都会从美国政府那里了解这些数据。比如苹果公司（Apple）就喜欢援引NetApplications 的数据来显示自身互联网份额增长迅速。而NetApplications正是使用《中情局世界概况》来权衡其从客户网站上收集来的各国数据。
以下是美国中央情报局最新列出的网民人数前50的国家和地区（以及与其去年12月给出的数字的差额）。 |
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The last time we visited the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook -- a document that is supposed to be updated every week -- its "country comparison" list of Internet users seemed woefully out of date. Specifically, its December count of Internet users in China (298 million) differed from Wikipedia's (425 million) by 127 million people.
Wikipedia's numbers struck us as more credible for several reasons, and apparently the Agency agreed.
In February it issued an update that caught up to the user-generated encyclopedia, in some cases lifting its numbers from the same sources Wikipedia used. The most striking example is Nigeria, where the CIA counted 11 million users in December and Wikipedia counted 43,985,000 -- a 300% discrepancy. In the CIA's new database, Nigeria's Internet population is listed as 43,989,000.
As for China, there's a still a discrepancy of more than 60 million. But the CIA's new count (389 million) has come more than half way to meet Wikipedia's, thanks to the Agency's discovery of 91 million Chinese Internet users it missed the last time.
All this matters because many companies -- whether they know it or not -- rely on the U.S. government to stay on top of these things. Apple (AAPL), for example, likes to citeNetApplications to show how rapidly its Internet share is growing. NetApplications, in turns, weighs the county-by-county data it collects from client websites using -- you guessed it -- the CIA Factbook.
Below: The CIA's current list of the top 50 Internet countries (and the increase from December). |
| 排名 |
国家/地区 |
网民人数 |
在全球网民中所占比例 |
与2010年的数字相差 |
变化百分比 |
| 1 |
中国 |
389,000,000 |
21.39% |
91,000,000 |
30.50% |
| 2 |
美国 |
245,000,000 |
13.47% |
14,000,000 |
6.10% |
| 3 |
日本 |
99,182,000 |
5.45% |
8,272,000 |
9.10% |
| 4 |
巴西 |
75,982,000 |
4.18% |
11,034,000 |
17.00% |
| 5 |
德国 |
65,125,000 |
3.58% |
3,152,000 |
5.10% |
| 6 |
印度 |
61,338,000 |
3.37% |
-19,662,000 |
-24.30% |
| 7 |
英国 |
51,444,000 |
2.83% |
2,689,000 |
5.50% |
| 8 |
法国 |
45,262,000 |
2.49% |
2,350,000 |
5.50% |
| 9 |
尼日利亚 |
43,989,000 |
2.42% |
32,989,000 |
299.90% |
| 10 |
俄罗斯 |
40,853,000 |
2.25% |
-4,397,000 |
-9.70% |
| 11 |
韩国 |
39,400,000 |
2.17% |
1,924,000 |
5.10% |
| 12 |
墨西哥 |
31,020,000 |
1.71% |
7,760,000 |
33.40% |
| 13 |
意大利 |
29,235,000 |
1.61% |
4,243,000 |
17.00% |
| 14 |
西班牙 |
28,119,000 |
1.55% |
2,879,000 |
11.40% |
| 15 |
土耳其 |
27,233,000 |
1.50% |
2,750,000 |
11.20% |
| 16 |
加拿大 |
26,960,000 |
1.48% |
1,874,000 |
7.50% |
| 17 |
越南 |
23,382,000 |
1.29% |
2,548,000 |
12.20% |
| 18 |
哥伦比亚 |
22,538,000 |
1.24% |
5,421,000 |
31.70% |
| 19 |
波兰 |
22,452,000 |
1.23% |
3,773,000 |
20.20% |
| 20 |
巴基斯坦 |
20,431,000 |
1.12% |
1,931,000 |
10.40% |
| 21 |
埃及 |
20,136,000 |
1.11% |
8,722,000 |
76.40% |
| 22 |
印尼 |
20,000,000 |
1.10% |
-10,000,000 |
-33.30% |
| 23 |
泰国 |
17,483,000 |
0.96% |
1,383,000 |
8.60% |
| 24 |
台湾 |
16,147,000 |
0.89% |
1,004,000 |
6.60% |
| 25 |
澳大利亚 |
15,810,000 |
0.87% |
640,000 |
4.20% |
| 26 |
马来西亚 |
15,355,000 |
0.84% |
-1,548,000 |
-9.20% |
| 27 |
荷兰 |
14,872,000 |
0.82% |
599,000 |
4.20% |
| 28 |
阿根廷 |
13,694,000 |
0.75% |
2,482,000 |
22.10% |
| 29 |
摩洛哥 |
13,213,000 |
0.73% |
2,913,000 |
28.30% |
| 30 |
沙特阿拉伯 |
9,774,000 |
0.54% |
2,074,000 |
26.90% |
| 31 |
秘鲁 |
9,158,000 |
0.50% |
2,030,000 |
28.50% |
| 32 |
委内瑞拉 |
8,918,000 |
0.49% |
1,751,000 |
24.40% |
| 33 |
瑞典 |
8,398,000 |
0.46% |
298,000 |
3.70% |
| 34 |
菲律宾 |
8,278,000 |
0.46% |
2,660,000 |
47.30% |
| 35 |
伊朗 |
8,214,000 |
0.45% |
-14,786,000 |
-64.30% |
| 36 |
比利时 |
8,113,000 |
0.45% |
821,000 |
11.30% |
| 37 |
罗马尼亚 |
7,787,000 |
0.43% |
1,655,000 |
27.00% |
| 38 |
乌克兰 |
7,770,000 |
0.43% |
-2,584,000 |
-25.00% |
| 39 |
智利 |
7,009,000 |
0.39% |
1,553,000 |
28.50% |
| 40 |
捷克共和国 |
6,681,000 |
0.37% |
653,000 |
10.80% |
| 41 |
匈牙利 |
6,176,000 |
0.34% |
303,000 |
5.20% |
| 42 |
瑞士 |
6,152,000 |
0.34% |
413,000 |
7.20% |
| 43 |
奥地利 |
6,143,000 |
0.34% |
206,000 |
3.50% |
| 44 |
哈萨克斯坦 |
5,299,000 |
0.29% |
2,999,000 |
130.40% |
| 45 |
葡萄牙 |
5,168,000 |
0.28% |
692,000 |
15.50% |
| 46 |
希腊 |
4,971,000 |
0.27% |
718,000 |
16.90% |
| 47 |
香港 |
4,873,000 |
0.27% |
749,000 |
18.20% |
| 48 |
丹麦 |
4,750,000 |
0.26% |
171,000 |
3.70% |
| 49 |
阿尔及利亚 |
4,700,000 |
0.26% |
600,000 |
14.60% |
| 50 |
乌兹别克斯坦 |
4,689,000 |
0.26% |
2,220,000 |
89.90% |
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