汽车行业重要的一年

    就汽车销售而言，2011年刚刚过去的几个月内发生了诸多事件。

    历年来美国的经济都充满了变数，但是今年以来其经济似乎病入膏肓了。对美国的财政赤字和政府债务的担忧最近让美国国会走到了崩溃的边缘。中东地区的政局动荡令黄金的成本勇创新高；大宗商品价格的不断攀升表明通货膨胀的阴霾已卷土重来。

    与此同时，日本地震和海啸导致供电线路中断，给美日汽车制造商都带来了灾难性的后果。没有人能够控制这些事态的发展，加上层出不穷的问题使得境况更加糟糕。由于零部件供应不足，本田（Honda）和丰田（Toyota）都纷纷削减在美国的产量。

    最为要紧的是，稳步上升的汽油价格已经激发了更多的车主购买装有替代动力系统的小型车的兴趣。来自底特律三大汽车厂商的一位高管做了粗略计算，微型和小型车的市场份额已经从原先不足20%上升到25%，丰田普锐斯（Prius）混合动力小型车再次供不应求。

    2011年过去了一个季度，对于厂家规定的型年而言已经过去了6个月，现在开始预测2011年汽车行业的赢家与输家并非言之过早。

A big year for autos

    2011 has already been an unusually eventful year for auto sales.

    There is economic uncertainty every year, but this year it seems to be especially virulent. New concern about the U.S. budget deficit and government debt pushed Congress to the brink; uprisings in the Middle East helped push the cost of gold to an all-time high; and growing prices of commodities raised anew the specter of inflation.

    Meanwhile the Japan earthquake and tsunami have interrupted supply lines and played havoc with production by both Japanese and American automakers. What's worse is that nobody seems to have their arms around the issues, and problems keep spreading. Because of parts shortages, both Honda and Toyota are cutting production in the U.S.

    On top of all that, steadily rising gasoline prices have renewed interest in small cars with alternative powertrains. According to one back-of-the envelope calculation by a Detroit Three executive, the market share for subcompact and compact cars has risen to 25% from the high teens, and the Toyota Prius is once again in short supply.

    With three months gone in the calendar year -- and six months in the model year -- it is not too soon to start projecting the winners and losers for 2011.

    By Alex Taylor III, senior editor at large

    赢家：美国汽车市场

    在自然灾难（地震）和人为灾难（由中东政局动荡引发的油价攀升）频繁发生的情况下，美系汽车和卡车销量一路高歌猛进。一季度行业销售同比上升20%，全年销售量将突破1，300万辆。这种业绩算不上华丽，但足以让大多数厂商实现赢利。不过，谜局亦在：底特律汽车三巨头在遏制优惠计划方面将获得多大的成功。

    In the face of disasters both random (earthquakes) and predictable (instability in the Middle East leading to higher oil prices), car and truck sales have held up surprisingly well. Industry sales rose 20% in the first quarter, and are headed above 13 million for the calendar year -- no barnburner but enough for most manufacturers to stay in the black. Still uncertain: How successful the Detroit Three will be in restraining incentives.

    赢家：福特汽车

    由于未接受美国政府救助，福特汽车赢得了民众的支持，其销售量于今年三月份实现了超越通用汽车（GM）销售量的佳绩。这样的成绩在最近10多年来还是第二次出现。当然，来自第三方——美国J.D. Power的《消费者报告》（Consumer Reports）的高度评价，同样让福特赢得了广泛支持。而且市场上福特生产的大排量福克斯（Focus）车型才刚刚上市。

    Winner: Ford Motor

    Riding a wave of public approval for stepping back from government support, as well as growing confirmation of superior performance from third-party sources (Consumer Reports, J.D. Power), Ford outsold GM in March for only the second time in more than a decade. And its high-volume Focus has only barely reached the market.

    艾克森一反底特律汽车厂商要求管理层稳定的传统，对管理层进行大范围的重组，其规模仅稍逊于史上亨利•福特二世对福特公司的改革力度，当时亨利•福特二世接替年迈的祖父后，引进了十位“精明小子”（Whiz Kids）。在通用汽车公布了今年一季度的销售业绩（即同比上升25%）之后， 那些担心方方面面的变化——尤其市场营销的变化——会带来灾难性后果的批评者不敢妄加评论了。艾克森必须带领通用汽车度过新车型“旱期”，直到2013款雪佛兰美宜堡（Chevy Malibu）上市。

    Winner: GM chairman and CEO Dan Ackerson

    In defiance of Detroit tradition, Akerson continued the biggest management shakeup since Henry Ford II replaced his senile grandfather and brought in the Whiz Kids. Critics who worried that all the changes -- especially in marketing -- would have an unsettling effect were quieted by GM's 25% sales increase in the first quarter. Now he has to manage GM through a new model drought until the 2013 Chevy Malibu arrives

    赢家：现代（Hyundai）和起亚（Kia）

    现代和起亚，这两家势不可挡的韩国汽车新锐曾创下高于业内水平的骄人业绩。如今这一幕再次上演。但不同的是，这一次它们的车型赢得了特别优胜单项奖。最新一款获此殊荣的车型是现代伊兰特（Elantra）。

    The two Korean steamrollers have a history of outperforming the industry and are doing so again. The difference this time is that its cars are winning individual awards for superiority. The latest: Hyundai's Elantra.

    赢家：别克（Buick）

    谁说婴儿潮时代出生的人将永远不可能接受其父母的医生所开汽车的品牌？别克君越（LaCrosse），富于灵感创意的设计，加之其在中国所获成功的光环效应，令市场为之一振。通用汽车的市场部总监乔尔.伊万尼克将别克定位于豪华车系，可谓明智之举。

    Who said Baby Boomers would never accept their parents' doctor's brand? Inspired new designs -- LaCrosse, Regal -- combined with the halo effect of success in China -- have supercharged results. GM marketing boss Joel Ewanick's move to market Buick as a luxury brand looks brilliant.

    当克莱斯勒公司（Chrysler）首席执行官塞尔吉奥•马尔乔内（Sergio Marchionne）将道奇卡车（Dodge Trucks）变成独立的拉姆品牌时，传统人士认为此举疯狂之极。但是自从三季度拉姆卡车的销售业绩优于包括奔驰（Mercedes）、别克、阿库拉（Acura）在内的很多汽车品牌之后，这些人就不敢说三道四了。在不景气的皮卡市场上，拉姆卡车还是实现了销售增长三分之一的杰出成绩。

    Traditionalists who thought Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne was nuts when he turned Dodge Trucks into a stand-alone Ram brand haven't been heard from since Ram outsold Mercedes, Buick, Acura and a host of others in the third quarter. In a tough market for pickups, Ram's sales are up by a third.

    受去年丰田“召回门”后遗症的影响，这家日本汽车巨头一季度的销售仅仅上升了15%，而3月份单月销售量更是下跌了8个百分点。曾经的最畅销车型凯美瑞（Camry）将此荣誉让位给日产奥蒂玛（Nissan Altima）。而由于缺乏新车型，一季度雷克萨斯（Lexus）的销量下降了4%。

    Loser: Toyota

    The Japanese behemoth continues to suffer from the hangover of last year's recall crisis. Toyota sales rose only 15% in the first quarter and actually fell 8% in March. Camry relinquished its best-selling title to Nissan's Altima. Lexus, hurting from a new-model drought was actually down 4% for the quarter.

    尽管志在主导全球汽车市场并在美国市场实现复兴，但是大众的成绩平淡无奇。大众在美国的首款重新改装版汽车——捷达（Jetta）——被批评人士形容为毫无新意，而将美国元素融入设计理念的帕萨特（Passat）估计同样将深受批评。结果其一季度销售增长率落后于行业平均水平。

    Despite its plans for world domination and an American revival, VW fell flat. Its first U.S. redesign -- the Jetta -- was roasted by critics for its lackluster execution, the built-in-America Passat looks like it may get the same reception, and first-quarter sales increases trailed the industry average.

    输家：萨博（Saab）

    萨博和供应商发生付款纠纷之后，汽车被迫停产，加之首席执行官突然辞职，使得其图谋复兴的努力付诸东流。由于现金流不足，萨博的生存面临危险。

    Its fragile efforts to revive foundered when payment disputes with suppliers halted production and its CEO abruptly resigned. With cash short, Saab's survival is officially endangered.

    输家：精灵（Smart）

    正如一位克莱斯勒前高管所言，在超级经销商罗杰.潘世奇放弃分销经营的打算，并将精灵品牌交还奔驰公司之后，这款微型车似乎便不那么灵动了。备受欧洲市场青睐的灵巧车型设计理念没能打动美国汽车消费者。在美国汽车市场小规模的销售热潮中，精灵未能分得一杯羹，三月份仅卖出了425辆。

    To paraphrase a former Chrysler executive, Smart looked less so after superdealer Roger Penske relinquished his distribution deal and gave the brand back to Mercedes. What was considered cute and clever in Europe didn't translate to the U.S. Smart bucked the small car boom, selling just 425 cars in March.

    输家：迈巴赫（Maybach）

    迈巴赫是奔驰公司旗下的超豪华品牌，然而现在它几乎完全淡出人们的视线。相比戴姆勒与克莱斯勒的合并，这算不得一个大错误，但仍然缺乏解决方案。迈巴赫一季度的销量几乎仅为其劲敌劳斯莱斯（Rolls-Royce）的九分之一。除非迈巴赫重整雄风或是彻底停产，不然它将一直令戴姆勒公司董事长蔡澈（Dieter Zetsche）蒙羞，就像道奇翼龙（Nitro）和吉普指南者（Jeep Compass）一样。

    Loser: Maybach

    Not quite as big a mistake as the DaimlerChrysler merger, but still lacking a resolution, Maybach, the uber-Mercedes brand, has almost vanished from sight. In the first quarter, it was outsold by arch-rival Rolls-Royce almost nine to one. Until it gets fixed or closed, it remains a stain on Daimler Chairman Dieter Zetsche's reputation. Sort of like the Dodge Nitro or Jeep Compass.