Facebook估值传言可以休矣

据凯利报道，Facebook计划在今年10月或11月向美国证监会提交S-1上市申请书，然后在2012年第一季度进行首次公开募股。这也符合美国证监会关于“500个股东”的规定（美国证监会规定，任何拥有500名以上股东的公司都必须公开财务报表——译注）。根据该规定，Facebook将被迫在明年五月前披露其财务报表，因此Facebook很可能借机上市。虽然美国证监会现在正在考虑放宽私企发行股票的门坎，但即便证监会真的这样做了，Facebook可能仍将面对来自内部员工的上市压力，这些员工由于公司的阻止而无法在私股二级市场上销售自己的股份，因而可能会催逼公司上市以销售股权。（由于Facebook员工一度在二级市场上大量卖出股份，因此Facebook不再向员工发放股票期权，而改为发放赠股）。

此外，凯利在报道称，舆论认为高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）已经在Facebook上市股承销权的竞争中占得先机，因为Facebook去年价值15亿美元的私股配售就是由高盛经手管理的。另一个原因则是Facebook的上市不大可能采用公开降价拍卖的方式。

凯利最后称，Facebook希望通过首次公开募股使其市值达到“1，000亿美元以上”。这一估值让其他博客人瞠目结舌，大肆转载。简直是莫名其妙!

首先，最近Facebook在私股市场上的市值已经达到了850亿美元左右。而私股交易一定是按公开估值的折扣价进行的。以社交网络LinkedIn的股份为例，在LinkedIn上市前6个月，该股在私股市场上的交易价为每股23美元，6个月后LinkedIn以45美元的价格上市。如果按照这个比率，Facebook明年一月份的估值有可能达到1，650亿美元。

不过更重要的是，人们无法未卜先知地推算出一家互联网公司6到10个月以后的估值。到时泡沫究竟是在继续膨胀，还是已经破裂？宏观经济趋势将继续保持入市反弹的态势，还是将陷入二次衰退？

Facebook可能不需要操心所谓的IPO时机问题，但它也不可能不受经济大气候的影响。比方说如果广告业遭遇了大规模的衰退，那么Facebook最大的收入支柱就会受到打击（至少增长会放缓）。我不是说这种情况一定会发生，但显然这种可能性是存在的。对我来说，今天凯利的这篇“1，000亿美元”报道的唯一价值就在于为Facebook正式上市时实际的公开估值提供了一个参照。

译者：朴成奎

Facebook is widely expected to go public in 2012, and today CNBC's Kate Kelly put some meat on the rumor bones.

She reports that the social network plans to file its S-1 by this October or November, with the actual offering to occur in Q1 2012. This is in keeping with the 500-shareholder rule theory, in which Facebook would be be forced to publicly disclose its financials by next May, so it might as well become publicly-traded. Even if the SEC lengthens that threshold -- which it is considering -- Facebook still could face IPO pressure from employees who have been prevented from selling their shares on private secondary markets (following a rash of such sales, Facebook began providing private stock grants rather than options).

Kelly adds that Goldman Sachs (GS) is considered to have "pole position" for underwriting rights, due to its managing of a $1.5 billion secondary sale last year, and that Facebook is unlikely to use a Dutch Auction model.

Last and least, Kelly reports that Facebook would be looking for an initial market cap in "north of $100 billion." This is the tidbit that most other blogs are breathlessly repeating, but I cannot understand why.

First, the most recent private trades of Facebook stock came in at around $85 billion, and private trades are meant to be done at a discount to public valuations. LinkedIn (LNKD) shares, for example, traded at $23 per share on the private markets six months before going public at $45 per share. At that velocity, Facebook actually would be valued at $165 billion next January.

More importantly, it's impossible to intelligently speculate on an Internet company valuation 6-10 months out. Will the bubble still be inflating? Will it have popped? Will macro trends have continued their anemic recovery, or double-dipped back down?

Facebook is probably immune to the timing issues related to IPO windows, but it does not stand apart from the economy at large. If we experience a massive advertising pullback, for example, then Facebook could take a hit in its largest revenue pot (or at least a growth slowdown). Not saying that will happen, but obviously it could. To me, the only value in today's "$100 billion" report is in referring back to it when the company has an actual public valuation.

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