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苹果股价,怎一个“弹”字了得
 作者:  Philip Elmer-DeWitt    时间: 2011年07月11日    来源: 财富中文网
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按照对冲基金经理们的话来说,苹果(Apple)是一支总会反弹的股票。
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    右图是一张记录了苹果(Apple)36天以来股价的走势图,每当我看到类似之图表,我都会想起杰森•施瓦茨的那篇关于股市的文章“空头追捧苹果的七大理由”(Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It)。在我看来,该文辛辣至极,实属财经新闻网站The Street 2009年所刊文章之精品。此文精华可以两句概之:

    “如果你能压低一支好股票的价格”施瓦茨写到,“那么股价回升之日就是你盆满钵盈之时。如同一把弹弓,拉的越紧,射的越远。”

    尽管苹果的销售业绩、盈利和负债表都是业内其他企业可望而不可及的,但苹果股价在6月份前20天里却下跌超过32美元(跌幅9.3%),然而散户们认为苹果的基本面良好,再加上施瓦茨有言在先,即便苹果股价下跌,他们仍愿为苹果慷慨解囊。

    苹果,正如施瓦茨所说,是对冲基金和相关机构最钟爱的摇钱树。他们持有苹果超过70%的股份。离苹果公布业绩报告还有不到两周的时间,关于苹果盈利将创历史新高的博弈显然有利可图,精明的基金经理们对这一点更是了如指掌。如果他们六月初抛售了苹果的股票,唯一的原因是因为他们计划在苹果7月19日业绩报告公布前再把这些筹码抢回来。

    施瓦茨在2009年12月19日发表的文章中对此做出了详细的解释。点击这里可阅览此文章。该文在The Street网站上分7页发表,如果你无法忍受那慢如蜗牛的网站加载速度——你可以阅读我们于12月20日刊载的简报,内容如下:

    1.苹果是市场的领头羊。苹果这支股票在股市地位显赫,一呼百应。这种影响力也使得苹果的股票成为了多头和空头交易的聚宝盆。然而对于像Research In Motion【(RIMM)黑莓手机生产商——译注】或花旗(Citigroup,C)这种更容易打压的对象,同样的策略却无法产生类似的滚雪球效应。

    2.苹果股总是会反弹的。长远来看,苹果公司的基本面必将推动其股价走高,但对冲基金希望实现最大的投资回报。做空一支好股票,然后在低位快速买回,这比一直持股待涨要赚得更多。

    3. 苹果股票的可预见性降低了空头交易的风险。下一代iPod、iPone和iMac何时上市无人不晓。苹果股也因此成为了典型的“事件驱动型”股票。一旦风平浪静,该股走势则变得摇曳不定。

    4.新媒体改变了游戏规则。当前,三人成虎已经成为了普遍现象。新媒体对于苹果一直关注有加。与过去相比,现今媒体报道缺乏可信性和准确性。在这样的大环境中,各种隐藏很深的计划可以在公众不知情的情况下肆无忌惮地推行。

    5.苹果的秘密。作为技术创新领域独一无二的带头人,在新产品方面,苹果对于竞争对手、消费者和投资者等向来都是三缄其口。苹果当初还没有售出哪怕一款平板电脑(Tablet)产品,然而对冲基金已从关于该产品的谣言中赚得盆满钵盈。苹果的讳莫如深为短线交易者带来了一场完美风暴。

    6.苹果创新。创新是苹果的拿手好戏,而且时常使世人想入非非。哪怕对冲基金随便杜撰一个故事,例如,为了研发新款苹果轿车,苹果正谋划并购土星(Saturn)汽车,人们也会陷入疯狂…苹果自身不断的创新也给交易者的猜想提供了无穷无尽的素材。

    7.史蒂夫•乔布斯,本世纪的先知。他是美国商界唯一国宝级别的人物,苹果的股价也因乔布斯享受了一定的溢价,但这也是空头可以利用的一个变数。因为苹果股价一贯无法承受失去乔布斯之重。

    Whenever I see a chart like the one at right, which traces the trajectory of Apple's (AAPL) share price over the past 36 days, I'm reminded of Jason Schwarz's "Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It," a supremely cynical view of the stock market that may be the best thing The Street published in all of 2009. The nut of his thesis can be boiled down to two sentences:

    "If you can keep a good stock down," Schwarz wrote, "then you are able to load up for the ride back up. It's like a slingshot -- the harder you pull, the more propulsion you generate."

    Ordinary retail investors who put their savings into Apple because they believed in the company's fundamentals would do well to bear Schwarz's words in mind when the stock behaves as it did in the first 20 days of June, dropping more than $32 (9.3%) despite sales, earnings and a balance sheet that is the envy of the tech world.

    Apple, as Schwarz reminds us, is the favorite punching bag of the hedge funds and institutions that control more than 70% of its shares. It's a pretty good bet that the earnings Apple is scheduled to report in less than two weeks will set new records, and savvy fund managers know this. If they were dumping the stock in early June, it's only because they were planning to snap it back up in advance of Apple's July 19th earnings report.

    Schwarz explained all this in his Dec. 19, 2009 piece. You can read it here. If you don't want to click through The Street's version -- posted in seven slow-loading gallery pages -- you can read, below the fold, the executive summary we posted on Dec. 20.

    1. Apple is the market leader. This one stock has become so important to the market that its action is contagious. This influence makes Apple a prized possession for both the longs and the shorts. Knocking down an easier target like Research In Motion (RIMM) or Citigroup (C) doesn't generate the same snowball effect.

    2. Apple always bounces back. Over the long run, Apple fundamentals will certainly take the stock higher, but hedge funds want to maximize the ride. Keeping a great stock down allows them to profit from quick predetermined trades rather than being fully invested all the time.

    3. The predictability of Apple reduces a short's risk. Everyone knows when the next iPod, iPhone,and iMac refreshes will hit. This has turned into a calendar-driven catalyst stock. During the quiet time, the stock is vulnerable.

    4. New media have changed the game. Anybody can say anything and the masses will believe it. The topic of Apple currently dominates this new media. There is no accountability or verification of sources like the old days. In such an environment, hidden agendas can be pushed endlessly without disclosure.

    5. Apple secrecy. As the unparalleled leader in tech innovation, Apple feels that it is necessary to keep future products veiled to all competitors, consumers and investors ... Apple has yet to sell a single Tablet, yet hedge funds already have made millions from rumors surrounding the product. The lack of transparency from Apple creates a perfect storm for short-term traders.

    6. Apple innovation. This company is so good that it causes imaginations to run wild. A hedge fund could float a story that Apple is thinking of buying Saturn in order to develop a new brand of Apple cars and people would go nuts ... The constant innovation coming out of Apple provides traders with endless material for believable speculation.

    7. Steve Jobs is the visionary of the century. This one man is the single greatest asset in corporate America, which causes Apple stock to trade with a Steve Jobs premium, a variable that the shorts can use as well. Apple's stock is always vulnerable to losing Jobs.




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@关子临: 自信也许会压倒聪明,演技的好坏也许会压倒脑力的强弱,好领导就是循循善诱的人,不独裁,而有见地,能让人心悦诚服。    参加讨论>>
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@Bruce的森林:正念,应该可以解释为专注当下的事情,而不去想过去这件事是怎么做的,这件事将来会怎样。一方面,这种理念可以帮助员工排除杂念,把注意力集中在工作本身,减少压力,提高创造力。另一方面,这不失为提高员工工作效率的好方法。可能后者是各大BOSS们更看重的吧。    参加讨论>>


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