It's impossible to guess who might be Carol Bartz's replacement at Yahoo because it's impossible to guess what Yahoo might look like when a replacement is named. It could be a totally different company before a CEO is even chosen. Or choosing the replacement might be part of the transformation if, for example, the struggling Internet firm decides to sell itself.
Yahoo's (YHOO) board complicates matters. Given its history -- including its surprising choice of Carol Bartz in 2009 -- it's hard to know what it might do now. "I think HP and Yahoo are probably running neck and neck for the worst board in corporate America," said Eric Jackson of Ironfire Capital in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
Jackson, like everyone else who is speculating on who might lead Yahoo, has former News Corp. (NWSA) executive Peter Chernin near the top of his list. Chernin, Jackson said, is "hungry" to "make his mark outside of Rupert Murdoch's shadow."
Chernin left News Corp. in 2009. He launched Chernin Group, a production and investment group that recently had success with the movie Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Chernin's companies also produce TV shows and invest in media and technology firms in China and other Asian countries.
At News Corp., Chernin was the main force behind Fox Entertainment's participation in Hulu, the video site that is owned by News. Corp., Disney (DIS), Comcast's NBC Universal (CMCSA) and Providence Equity Partners. Hulu is selling itself, and Yahoo is among the bidders along with Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), AT&T (T), Google (GOOG) and others.
Even before Bartz' ouster, Chernin was reported to be considering an acquisition of Yahoo as part of a group of investors. If he is indeed "hungry" to make his mark on the Internet under his own name, he might be persuaded to leave behind the Hollywood glamour.
Another possibility: Jason Kilar, the CEO of Hulu. The former top Amazon executive is ad-savvy (something Yahoo desperately needs) and, obviously, knows a lot about Internet video. If Yahoo, which refers to itself as a digital media company, gets deeper into video, with or without Hulu, Kilar might be a good choice.
Jack Ma is CEO of China's Alibaba Group, in which Yahoo has a 43% stake. He has battled with Bartz and would like that stake back -- and maybe all of Yahoo. His company is worth far more than Yahoo is, so a stock deal is a possibility. Ma would then likely break off and sell pieces of Yahoo.