Indra Nooyi is in a leadership crucible. It isn't quite as hot as it was, now that the company she runs, PepsiCo, has laid out a broad strategic plan for the next couple of years. But it's still an extremely demanding test, the kind that no CEO enjoys but that most CEOs confront. For Pepsi's employees and shareholders, and for Nooyi personally, a great deal is riding on how she leads over the next several months.
Nooyi's most obvious problem is Pepsi's stock. Last year between May and September it dropped 15%, which panicked some investors. More fundamentally, the stock has gone nowhere since Nooyi became CEO about five and a half years ago. During that same period, angry investors point out, Coca-Cola stock is up about 40%.
If that comparison were as far as the complaining went, it wouldn't be much of a problem. The comparison is unfair. Back when Nooyi got the job, Coke (KO) stock had been falling for years, the result of seven years of poor management after the death of legendary CEO Roberto Goizueta; the stock had plenty of room to move up. But Pepsi (PEP) stock had been rising steadily through years of continued strong management; Nooyi took over near the height of the economic expansion, and the stock was fully valued, perhaps overvalued. The unflattering comparison with Coke is bad luck for Nooyi, nothing more.
But she faces a deeper problem. During her tenure Pepsi has often failed to hit her stated profit targets, which investors consider an unforgivable sin. Specifically, the company is getting beaten up in its flagship product category, drinks, in the world's largest market, North America. The soda pop planets shifted in their orbits last year when Pepsi-Cola was displaced as America's eternal No. 2 carbonated soft drink (after Coca-Cola); the new No. 2 is Diet Coke.
That reordering is especially distressing to investors because there is scarcely a more beautiful business in the world than producing branded soft drink concentrate. Capital requirements are low, and profit margins are stratospheric. If Pepsi was now making a mess of that franchise, then it was becoming a fundamentally different and much less attractive company.