Zynga首发或吹大科技股泡沫

    科技股是否又泛起了泡沫？在今年的大部分时间里，关于这个问题的争论都很火爆，直到最近几周才略有降温。不过别担心，它只是放了个暑假，今年秋天还会尘嚣再起。

    社交游戏公司Zynga不久前向美国证监会提交了IPO招股计划书，让世界得以一窥这家游戏新锐的财务状况。简要地说，这家社交游戏公司的营收入为5.97亿美元，净利润为9，000万美元。除非它的增长显著减缓，否则今年Zynga的营收入将轻松突破10亿美元大关。相比之下，传统游戏巨头电子艺界公司（Electronic Arts）今年的营收入有望达到40亿美元，由此可见Zynga的增长前景有多广阔。

    不过Zynga并不是一个十全十美的IPO选手。它的营业利润起伏不定，而且还存在着过度依赖Facebook的问题。但目前为止，它仍是今年上市的网络初创公司中最稳健的一家。如果横向比较一下，团购网站Groupon存在的种种隐患，Zynga一样也不沾边。有业内人士甚至将Zynga称为“反Groupon”。Zynga的营业收入会流入公司里，而不是被领导们塞进自己的腰包。现在Zynga已经坐拥10亿美元的现金。更令人印象深刻的是，Zynga从2007年秋天就开始产生现金流量。2010年Zynga的现金流是3.26亿美元，而单单是上个季度，Zynga的现金流就达到了1.03亿美元。因此，Zynga是一家运营良好、财务健康的公司。

    不过现在Zynga仍然面临着一个大问题——承销商和投资者会为它IPO给出一个怎样的估值。初步报道显示Zynga的估值在100亿美元。如果Zynga肯按这个市值挂牌上市，把钱留给投资者去赚，那就再好不过了，不过这种情形并不会发生。社交网络LinkedIn本财年的营收入预计在4.2亿美元左右，但在挂牌交易的第一天，市值就达到90亿美元。按照这种标准计算，Zynga上市时的市值可能会飙升至200亿美元以上。

    Zynga不太可能在美国劳动节（每年九月的第一个星期一——译注）之前上市，因为七八月份投资人们都在度假，这时的IPO市场过于沉闷。不过如果Zynga真的上市了，它的估值会让我们直观地感受到科技IPO泡沫已经膨胀到多大了。此外承销商们也有推动Zynga的IPO大获成功的动力，因为Zynga的IPO会给IPO市场加温，这样市场就充分做好了迎接Facebook IPO隆重登场的准备。

    事实上，华尔街早在几个月前就开始为Facebook的IPO铺路了。先是“中国的Facebook”人人网赴美IPO，随后是商务化社交网站LinkedIn的上市。现在又是Zynga——而且Zynga的大多数游戏都是为Facebook这个社交平台打造的。

    不过人人网和LinkedIn的表现都差强人意。人人网的股价在上市首日飙升至24美元，然而到6月24日已跌至6.23美元。LinkedIn的股价在上市首日高达122美元，随后却跌至60美元。这给关于当下是否存在科技泡沫的讨论浇了一盆冷水。人人和LinkedIn的股价下跌，说明了即便Web2.0初创公司让投资者有些头脑发昏，他们也会很快恢复清醒。

    但是Zynga却不一样，它没有之前这几家公司的缺点。它的财务健康和增长潜力很可能激发投资者的投机性买入，甚至有可能产生溢出效应，拉动其他网络股上涨。事实上这一点已经发生了。上周五，就在Zynga递交招股计划书后，LinkedIn的股价出现反弹，差不多回升了6个百分点。人人网也上涨了5%，其他最近上市的网络公司各自上涨了5%到10%不等。音乐流媒体服务公司潘多拉（Pandora）更是足足上涨了12个百分点。

    这些都为Facebook IPO的重磅登场铺平了道路。如果Facebook的招股计划书也像Zynga的一样健康，没有亮起很多危险信号，那么可能整个市场都会为之疯狂。人们会对初创公司的创始人们大献谀词，而像合广投资（Union Square Ventures）和安德森霍洛维茨公司（Andreessen-Horowitz）这些最早资助Facebook的风投机构的形象也会变得光辉起来。届时市场并不会重演1999年的悲剧，但它离理性市场又远了几步，离集体疯狂又近了几步。

    当然，我们也有理由相信市场或许并不会出现狂热。首先宏观经济前景依然阴云密布，科技界仍有可能遭受凄风苦雨；其次投资者也有可能坚持给予Zynga一个理性的估值。但是考虑到市场对热门网络股的需求处于被压抑的状态，因此第二点发生的可能性不大。按照当前的趋势来看，Zynga的IPO必将受到热炒。这对Zynga和Facebook来说都是大好事，但对于股市整体来说却未必是福。

    译者:朴成奎

    The debate that has raged for most of the year over whether we're in a new tech bubble has grown quiet in recent weeks. But don't worry, it's just taken the summer off. It will be back this fall.

    That much seems clear now that Zynga filed its IPO prospectus and given the world a peek at its financials. To recap, the social gaming company had revenue of $597 million and a net profit of $90 million. Unless its growth slows dramatically, Zynga's revenue will easily top $1 billion this year. Contrast that with traditional gaming giant Electronic Arts (ERTS), which is expected to see $4 billion in revenue this year, and you get an idea of Zynga's promise.

    Zynga isn't the perfect IPO candidate – operating margins have been erratic, and there's the issue of its dependence on Facebook – but it's by far the strongest web startup to file this year. It has none of the red flags that plagued Groupon's prospectus. In fact some are calling it the anti-Groupon. Proceeds from Zynga's offering will go to the company, not insiders. Yet the company has $1 billion in cash. Even more impressive, it's been generating cash since the fall of 2007: $326 million in 2010 and $103 million last quarter alone. This is a well-run, financially healthy company.

    The big remaining question for Zynga is how underwriters and investors value its IPO. Initial reports valued the company at $10 billion. It would be very considerate of Zynga to list at that price and leave money on the table, but it's not going to happen. Remember that LinkedIn, which is expected to make $420 million this fiscal year, was worth $9 billion on its first day of trading. By that measure, Zynga could debut and see its value rise above $20 billion.

    Zynga is unlikely to debut before Labor Day. With investors on vacation in July and August, the IPO market is too sleepy. But when Zynga does list, its valuation will measure just how big the tech IPO bubble is getting. And underwriters have an incentive to make Zynga's IPO a success: The market is being orchestrated perfectly for a big Facebook IPO.

    In fact, Wall Street has been priming the IPO pipeline for a Facebook IPO for months. First, there was RenRen (RENN), the so-called Facebook of China. Then followed LinkedIn (LNKD), a niche social network focused on professionals. Now comes Zynga, with its games built largely for the social platform that is Facebook.

    But RenRen and LinkedIn have stumbled. RenRen rose as high as $24 on its first day and sank as low as $6.23 on June 24. LinkedIn rose as high as $122 on its first day then dropped as low as $60. Those declines poured cold water on talk of a tech bubble, suggesting that if investors were willing to lose their heads over web 2.0 startups, they'd come to their senses soon enough.

    But Zynga is different. It doesn't have the weakness of those earlier IPOs. Its financial health and promise of growth could, perversely, spur speculative buying that could spill over into other web stocks. In fact, this is already happening. On Friday, after Zynga filed its prospectus, LinkedIn rallied, rising as much as 6%. RenRen rose 5%, while other recent web IPOs also rose between 5% and 10%. Pandora (P) rose 12%.

    All of this would set the stage for a spectacular IPO for Facebook. And if Facebook's prospectus, like Zynga's, doesn't hold many red flags, things could get crazy. There will be adulatory profiles of startup founders and VC firms who first backed them – firms like Union Square Ventures and Andreessen-Horowitz. It won't be 1999 all over again, but it will be a few steps away from a rational market and toward a mania mindset.

    Of course, there are reasons why a mania might not come. There remain clouds on the economic horizon that could rain on the tech parade, or investors could simply insist on a reasonable valuation from Zynga. But given the pent-up demand for hot web stocks, that's unlikely to happen. Zynga is on track to have a red-hot offering. That will be very good for Zynga and Facebook, but it may not be so good for the stock market at large.