美利坚正重蹈日不落覆辙

    把美国比成日本似乎是有点过头。确实，两国的文化、民众和官方对金融泡沫破灭的反应都存在着巨大的差异，美国在这些方面可能更占优一些。

    然而不可否认的是，两个民族之间的确有着共同点，一是债台高筑，二是每当国家急需改革时，政治体系便陷入僵局。

    在日本，政界领导更替频繁的同时却从未给社会带来任何改变，这也是日本国债攀升，经济萎缩的结症所在。在美国，连续30多年的政府大肆挥霍导致国家债台高筑，其间，两党其实都有机会扭转局面，但是没有一家政党能够有所作为，哪怕只是往前迈一小步。

    情急之下，茶党（Tea Partiers）和他们的傀儡共和党现在要求国家来个180度大转弯，主张在不增加税赋的情况下大刀阔斧地削减开支。宛如一个人在梦醒时分，突然发现自己已是大腹便便，唯一能想到的减肥出路就是砍掉膝盖以下部分。

    这是典型三岁孩童的做法。然而，大部分选民还认为这是一条美好的“出路”。难道除了悲剧没有别的收场了吗？

    看看日本90年代泡沫破灭后的表现答案便一目了然，没错——但是也不会像比尔•格罗斯说的那样悲壮。我们不会一夜之间一贫如洗，相反，我们会熬过一场又一场危机，然后贫穷会随着时间的推移逐渐降临，毫不留情，不可逆转。

    “日本的历史告诉我们，当经济萎靡不振并产生危机的时候，政治不作为的后果是十分严重的”，纽约州康宁市资产管理公司Waverly Advisors的战略师安德鲁•巴伯说。

    考虑到证券市场的可能出现的情况，债券经理人格鲁斯也一改其以往轻松的语调转而在最近变得语重心长。

    当降级评价来临的时候，美国利率都会有小幅回升，这也将导致借贷成本的增加，并让本已举步维艰的经济复苏变得更加步履蹒跚。如果美国只是损失了3A评级这块金字招牌，“倒也可能只算是小刮小碰，还不至于到车毁人亡的地步”，券商Janney Capital Markets公司的战略师盖伊•乐巴斯称。

    为什么？原因之一是因为美国的海外债权人，例如中国，天生就没有那种铤而走险的性格。毕竟他们也别无选择？欧洲自身难保，中国闭关自守，澳大利亚、新西兰和加拿大实力有限，无法承担如此巨大的资金流。

    “对于全球投资者来说，除了美元以外，可供其选择的替代品并不多”，乐巴斯说。“不是说他们想换就能换”。

    到目前为止，这是个好消息。但是再看看日本债券在过去几十年当中的收益率（见右图），就能发现，光解决证券市场的动荡问题还不足以将经济拉回增长轨道或为今后的繁荣带来大量就业机会。

    解决这个问题需要智慧，仅停留在减税或恣意增加开支这一层面是远远不够的。但是貌似两党目前都已是黔驴技穷。

    格鲁斯称通过改组经济、促进就业的代价是要花费64万亿美元，他的看法没错——但估计这样不菲的议题很难博得华盛顿的欢心。然而，政党们却一直围着债务上限这个毫无意义的问题团团转。一旦该问题得不到妥善解决，美国将因此一蹶不振——即便这个问题在接下来几周得到解决，其作用也是微乎其微的。

    这是一场毫无赚头的赌局，然而华盛顿政治赌客们却为此甘冒风险。不过，到今天为止，一切都已经不足为奇了。

    The Japan comparison sounds like a stretch. Yes, there are vast differences in culture and demographics and the official response to collapsed financial bubbles, many of which may eventually play out in America's favor.

    But the thread the two nations undeniably share – along with an unhealthy heap of debt -- is a dangerous case of political gridlock at a time when reform is urgently needed.

    In Japan, governments come and go and nothing changes, which is why the country's debt load now dwarfs annual economic output. In the United States, we got lost in sea of borrowing over three decades of free spending, during which both parties have had their chance to move the rudder and neither has, even a little bit.

    In response, the Tea Partiers and their Republican puppets now demand we change course drastically, by slashing spending without allowing for any tax increases. It's like waking up one day, realizing you're overweight and deciding the way to fix that is to lop off your left leg below the knee.

    It isn't the sort of thing adults typically do. Yet this is the sort of proposal that is received nowadays as a "solution" by a substantial part of the electorate. Can this end any way but badly?

    A look at Japan's performance since its asset bubble collapsed in 1990 says no – though not in the spectacular way the Bill Grosses of the world often suggest. Instead we may muddle through crisis after crisis, slowly getting poorer not all at once but relentlessly, irreversibly, over time.

    "The history of Japan serves as testament to what can happen when the political response to a malaise or crisis is stalemate," says Andrew Barber, a strategist at investment adviser Waverly Advisors in Corning, N.Y.

    Consider what is likely to happen with the Treasury market, where bond manager Gross once promised a turkey shoot but lately has been using less colorful language.

    A downgrade, when it comes, is likely to modestly raise U.S. interest rates, raising borrowing costs and squeezing an already anemic recovery. Yet the loss of the America's gold-plated credit rating alone "would probably be a fender-bender rather than totaling the car," says Janney Capital Markets strategist Guy LeBas.

    Why? In part it's because our foreign creditors, led China, aren't the mighty flight risk they are often made out to be. Where, after all, are they going to go? Europe is on the verge of disaster, China is closed to outsiders and Australia, New Zealand and Canada are too small to accommodate massive fund flows.

    "There is not much of an alternative to the dollar for global investors," says LeBas. "It's not like they can just flip a switch and go."

    That's good news, as far as it goes. But as a look at Japan's bond yields over the past decades (see chart, right) shows, avoiding a bond market shock alone won't do much to get your economy back on track or create the jobs we need for greater prosperity.

    That's going to take actual ideas beyond tax cuts or, for that matter, unbridled spending. No one from either party seems to have any of those at the moment.

    Gross is correct that how to revamp the economy to create those jobs is the $64 trillion question – but that debate is most certainly not taking place in Washington. Instead we have a pointless game of debt ceiling chicken going that could permanently crimp U.S. growth if it ends badly – or accomplish nothing if it is resolved in the next couple weeks.

    That is not much reward for all the risk our Beltway betters are taking on, but by now it's hard to be surprised.