美国的早春三月：经济触顶，复苏退潮

    独立投资公司Gluskin Sheff的经济学家大卫•罗森博格相信确有其事。3月份，不光是失业触底，下降至8.8%。罗森博格还发现实际可支配收入、家庭就业、实际商业销售以及制造业产值均在3月份上升至最高峰。

    最近，随着高盛（Goldman Sachs）和美国银行（Bank of America）纷纷调低第二季度和第三季度增长预测指标，关于美国增长的疑虑也是日渐盛行。美国洛杉矶加州大学（UCLA）经济学家爱德•里默认为经济复苏这一轮复苏（产出的增速大于常规，逐渐填补了危机期间两者的差距）已于去年夏天结束。

    但是罗森博格进一步指出，去年出现的经济二次“疲软”预示了世界公认最灵活的经济体正步入新一轮的低迷期。

    罗森博格周一在给客户的信中写道，“美国经济最主要的四大支柱指标在同一个月份达到峰值，表明我们离经济衰退的结局不远了。”

    当然，罗森博格之前也有过类似论断。上个月他说美国发生衰退的概率大约为99%。他的想法自有他的道理，然而，业内其他人士，例如美国银行（BofA）的伊森•哈里斯，仍认为今年年中很多增长态势并没有显现出来，然而这些态势会在第四季度的时候奇迹般地回归。

    哈里斯将第二季度增长率由原先的2%调低为1.5%，第三季度的预测增长率由2.9%调低为2.5，唯独将第四季度的增长率由原先的3%调高至3.5%。哈里斯和其他人预计日本经济的反弹和能源价格的下跌将有利于刺激第四季度的经济活力，这种预测很有可能成为现实。但是在经历的大半年的经济不景气后，相信很难有人能真心实意地高唱复苏凯歌。

    Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg believes it did. It isn't just that the unemployment rate bottomed out in March at 8.8%. Rosenberg notes that real disposable income, household employment, real business sales and manufacturing output all peaked that month.

    Skepticism about U.S. growth is catching lately, what with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both cutting their second- and third-quarter forecasts in recent days. UCLA economist Ed Leamer contends the recovery -- the process in which output rises faster than trend, closing the gap that opened up during the recession -- ended last summer.

    But Rosenberg goes a step further, taking the second economic "soft patch" in the past year as another sign that the world's most supposedly flexible economy is stumbling toward another downturn.

    "These are four critical pillars of the economy and they all peaked the same month," Rosenberg writes in a note to clients Monday. "Something tells me we are very close to a recessionary outcome here."

    Of course, Rosenberg has said this before. He said last month he viewed the odds of a U.S. recession as being about 99%. But his skepticism is worth bearing in minds as other forecasters, such as BofA's Ethan Harris, continue to assume that much of the growth that went missing in the middle of this year will magically reappear in the fourth quarter.

    Harris last week cut his second-quarter growth view to 1.5% from 2% and his third-quarter forecast to 2.5% from 2.9%, while boosting his fourth-quarter projection to 3.5% from 3%. Harris and others figure a Japanese economic bounce and lower energy prices will boost activity by then, and it is certainly possible that will happen. But it's hard to believe anyone can sing that song with much conviction after the downhill ride we've had most of this year.