美国债务违约可能拉低州级信用

    美国国会议员们计划提高14.3万亿美元债务上限谈判仍在进行，紧张气氛席卷了整个华盛顿。虽然8月2日的最终期限越来越近，但谈判仍未取得任何突破性进展，这一僵局使美国政府陷入信贷评级下调的危险处境。

    从各层面来看，评级下调对美国整体经济都不是利好消息。其中备受关注的一点是它可能对消费者产生的影响：美国国债利率上扬将导致借贷成本提高，从住房按揭贷款到汽车和助学贷款，无一能够幸免。美国经济目前仍处于从深度衰退中慢慢复苏的脆弱时期，这样的冲击可能将使美国重新陷入低迷。

    然而，舆论较少提及评级下调对各州可能产生的影响。

    上周，穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investor Services)将马里兰、新墨西哥、南卡罗来纳、田纳西和弗吉尼亚这五个州置于可能下调评级的监控之下。这五个州仍在当前拥有卓越AAA信用评级的15个州之列。穆迪之所以这么做是因为这五个州相对来说更依赖于联邦资金——不论是医疗补助，还是政府合同等，而提高债务上限的任何政策都可能涉及到削减开支。

    具有讽刺意味的是，这五个州中的大多数（南卡罗来纳、田纳西和弗吉尼亚）都被视为共和党选区，绝大多数民众都支持共和党——而共和党却叫嚣着要大幅削减预算，从医疗保健到社会保障金。南卡罗来纳州之所以进入监控名单，是因为穆迪(MCO)将该州在联邦合同和医疗补助金方面的脆弱不堪纳入考量因素。而田纳西州和弗吉尼亚州则是因为经济状况高度依赖联邦政府。

    如果美国不能保住其AAA信用评级，穆迪表示将对五个州的情况逐一进行评估。但无论最终结果如何，穆迪的警告并不意味着当地政府官员无法使自己的财政状况走上正轨。以弗吉尼亚为例，该州最近发布了连续第二年的预算盈余。联邦政府有权印制钞票，有权对促进就业和提振经济的政策颁布施加压力。但州政府与联邦政府不同，它们归根结底必须平衡好各自的预算。

    不少华尔街银行业人士表示，他们仍认为美国可以避免违约。但谁也无法确定降低评级可能会带来的总体影响——不论是对联邦政府而言，还是对各州或各地而言。

    即使如此，各州评级下调的可能将进一步凸显华盛顿削减成本和增加支出之间脆弱的平衡。标普(Standard and Poor's)曾表示，仅提高债务上限是不够的。标普已发出警告，除非国会能为至少节约4万亿美元出台“令人信服”的计划，否则还会面临降级的风险。然而，有人预计巨大的成本削减会对州政府和联邦政府产生涟漪效应。

    詹尼资本市场公司(Janney Capital Markets)的分析师在周二发布的评论中告诉客户：“……从整体上来看，如果联邦支出骤减，那么信用评级为Aa、A及其他评级的各州也会象征性地面临财政问题的挑战。如果这些州注定逃不过降级的命运，那么许多其他州和其他国家也会遭遇相同的处境。”

    评级下调对穆迪负面观察名单上的这五个州产生的短期影响可能微乎其微。乔治梅森大学公共政策学院（George Mason University's public policy school）的西奥纳•罗宾•李斯图金教授表示，借贷成本将会上升，但涨幅不应太过夸张。当前，美国州级预算赤字面临重压，几乎不容出现任何纰漏。在这种情况下，每年的利息成本不可能导致债务违约。

    但从长远来看，评级下调可能会曝光大家都不愿接受的一个事实——这些州过分依赖联邦拨款。

    “同样，如果不出台削减联邦政府赤字的重大计划，那么政府债务的上限问题会加速评级下调的进程，由此给这五个州带来的级联效应会使投资者将关注投向此前暂时被搁置的结构性财政问题，比如职工退休金和医疗保健费用等问题。

    Tensions are boiling over in Washington as U.S. lawmakers negotiate a plan to raise the $14.3 trillion debt limit. With an Aug. 2 deadline fast approaching, the U.S. government is nowhere close to forging a deal -- an impasse that puts its impeccable triple-A rating at risk.

    A downgrade would be bad news for the overall economy on various levels. Much attention has focused on how it could impact consumers: Interest rates for U.S. Treasury bonds would rise, which would lead to higher borrowing costs for everything from home mortgages to car and school loans. And with a fragile economy still slowly recovering from a deep recession, such shocks to the market could send the U.S. back into a downturn.

    What has been less talked about is what a downgrade would mean to individual states.

    Last week, Moody's Investor Services placed Maryland, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia under watch for a possible downgrade. The five are among the 15 states currently with stellar triple-A credit ratings. Moody's placed the group of five under watch because of their relatively large exposure to federal funding – from Medicaid payments to government contracts and the like. And any deal to raise the debt ceiling will likely include spending cuts.

    Ironically enough, a majority of these states (South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia) are considered red states, where residents predominantly vote Republican – the party that's been urging budgetary cuts in everything from health care to Social Security. In listing South Carolina, Moody's (MCO) factored the state's vulnerability to federal contracts and Medicaid payments. In Tennessee and Virginia, the economies are heavily dependent on federal government jobs.

    The ratings agency says it would review the states on a case-by-case basis if the U.S. lost its triple-A rating. However things work out, the Moody's alert shouldn't be taken as a sign that local officials can't get its finances right. For instance, Virginia recently posted a budget surplus for the second consecutive year. And unlike the federal government -- which has the power to print money and pressures to enact policies that encourage employment and a strong economy -- virtually all states must balance their budgets.

    Many Wall Street bankers say they still believe a default would be avoided. However, it's less certain what the overall effects might be of a downgrade – either at the federal, state or local levels.

    If anything, the likelihood of downgrades at the state level underscores Washington's delicate balance between cost cutting and additional spending. Standard and Poor's has said that just raising the debt ceiling isn't enough. The country's credit rating might still be downgraded, the agency has warned, unless Congress comes up with a "credible" plan for at least $4 trillion in savings. And yet, some expect that too much cost cutting could cause a ripple effect across local and state governments.

    "… It is also symbolic of the bigger picture in that states and communities with Aa, A and other ratings will also be exposed to fiscal challenges should federal expenditures decline dramatically," analysts at Janney Capital Markets told clients in a note released Tuesday. "If the ratings of these states were to ultimately be downgraded, so too would the rating of many other states, as well as counties and communities."

    In the short-run, a downgrade for the five states that Moody's has listed could be minimal. Siona Robin Listokin, professor at George Mason University's public policy school, says borrowing costs would rise but this shouldn't be too dramatic. And while state budgets are under pressure these days and have little room for error, the annual interest costs aren't likely to tip them into default.

    But over time, a downgrade could put an unwanted spotlight on the fact that these states are overwhelmingly reliant on federal funding.

    "In the same way that the federal debt ceiling could speed up ratings downgrades without a major federal deficit reduction plan, the cascade effect to these five states could focus investor attention on structural financial difficulties that have been on the back burner for a time, like state employee pension and health care costs."