分析：债限方案需配合第三轮量化宽松

    今天，万众瞩目的美国债务上限提升草案终于获得通过，着实让市场为之兴奋了一阵，然而在经济复苏乏力的大环境下，草案的最终细节和实施方案才是左右复苏前景的关键所在。

    经过了数周的政治角力，奥巴马总统和国会领袖们在周日深夜达成了一致意见——从而避免了违约。参众两院将于晚些时候进行投票表决，但是很显然，闹剧还并未谢幕。

    基于赤字削减计划，华盛顿已就如何实施税收和开支方案激辩了数月。然而，由于只涉及削减，不涉及增税，因此该计划对GDP增长的影响仍是个未知数，而且自从2010年夏天以来，GDP一直增长步履蹒跚。目前的问题在于，计划执行后，第一，美国经济到底会脆弱到什么程度，第二，如此大规模的削减是否会使经济超级疲软期进一步延长。

    提案将分两个阶段将美国债务上限总计提高2.4万亿美元。首先，未来10年政府将削减开支9，170亿美元。然后，国会将成立特别委员会来谋求剩下的1.5万亿美元赤字的出路，他们有可能会拿税收和社会保障计划开刀。

    有迹象表明，为了计划的顺利实施，国会议员一直都在未雨绸缪，避免意外的阻挠。然而鉴于过去几周所上演的政治闹剧，谁又忍心责备他们呢？如果特别委员会最终完成的削减任务低于1.2万亿美元，或者国会不采纳其削减建议，那么取而代之的将是一个预设的支出削减方案。该削减方案将波及军事开支以及医疗保险。

    尽管用心良苦，但该计划对于目前疲软的经济复苏只字未提。诚然，大部分削减措施要到2013年才正式生效，也不会影响针对低收入家庭、社会保险和医疗援助的福利计划。这样，在政府开支缩减之前，经济仍有喘息的时间。政府开支占美国GDP的20%，是仅次于消费的美国经济第二大生力军。

    但从最近GDP增长的报道来看，经济何时会复苏已变得越来越难以捉摸。据咨询公司Global IHS Insight的预报显示，第二季度，经济仅增长了1.3%，而且前几个季度的数据表明经济的增长和复苏远比预期乏力。在过去的6个月中，GDP的年增速仅为0.8%。

    下半年经济复苏的前景正急剧黯淡。即使2013年美国经济不再低迷，恐怕在此之前出现实质性复苏的可能性依然很小。

    债务上限的提升暂时让国会如释重负，然而压力将再次回到美联储身上，它将再一次面临激活经济的重任。也许国会应该考虑将第三轮量化宽松计划与此次债务上限上调方案进行捆绑，以备不时之需。

    Markets today initially cheered the rough sketches of a highly anticipated deal to raise the U.S. government's debt limit, but how the nation's fragile economic recovery responds will depend on the final details of the plan and how it eventually rolls out.

    After weeks of political wrangling, President Obama and congressional leaders reached a deal late Sunday night – thereby avoiding a default. The Senate and House are expected to vote on a plan later today, but needless to say, the drama isn't over yet.

    The deficit-reduction plan sets the stage for months of debates over how Washington taxes and spends. And it's uncertain how a plan centered on spending cuts without tax increases will impact GDP growth, which has faltered since the summer of 2010. The question now is how much weaker could things get and could the scale of spending cuts prolong the incredibly soft patch?

    An outline of the deal would raise the debt ceiling by $2.4 trillion in two stages. First, it would cut spending by $917 billion over the next 10 years. Then, a special committee would be tasked to find another $1.5 trillion in savings, which could come through tax overhauls and changes to social programs.

    It appears lawmakers have tried to avoid any unforeseen hiccups to the plan. And who can blame them, given the political disaster that's played out over the past few weeks? If the committee doesn't find at least $1.2 trillion in savings, or Congress doesn't adopt its proposals, a pre-set array of spending cuts would kick in. This could include cuts in military spending and Medicare payments to health-care providers.

    However well intentioned, the plan doesn't address the extent of today's weak economic recovery. To be sure, the bulk of spending cuts wouldn't kick in until 2013 and wouldn't affect programs for low-income households, Social Security or Medicaid. Surely this gives the economy some time to heal before reeling in government spending, which currently makes up about 20% of GDP and the largest share of the U.S. economy next to consumption.

    But judging by the latest reports on GDP growth, it has become increasingly uncertain when the economy will really starting picking up. During the second quarter, it grew by only 1.3% and revisions to previous quarters show a deeper recession and a weaker recovery than previously portrayed, according to forecasting firm Global IHS Insight. For the past six months, GDP grew at an annual rate of only 0.8%.

    Prospects for a pickup during the second half of the year are fading fast. Even if the economy is no longer depressed by 2013, it will likely just have started growing in any meaningful way.

    So while Congress might be breathing a slight sigh of relief once the debt ceiling is raised, this will likely put pressure on the Fed to act in an effort to – once again – jumpstart the economy. Perhaps Congress needs to pair this debt deal with a back-up QE3 plan?