衰退从未真正结束，二次探底无从谈起

    形形色色被视为聪明人的人士眼下正提醒我们，美国经济发展步子放缓，美国可能会重新陷入衰退。用来描述我们经济形势的新说法是“失速速度”（stall speed）。

    好吧，这个说法到底是什么意思呢？他们说这是“失速速度”。经济发展真的正在放缓吗？真实情况真是这样吗？或者，也许实体经济——也就是我们生活和劳作其间的那种经济形态，而不是华尔街大佬和华盛顿政客们炮制出来的那种经济——从来就没有真正复苏过？

    我之所以这么问，是因为我坚信，过去几年间，美国国内的经济状况从来就没有在真正意义上复苏过。

    2010年春，我警告过人们，要避开金融与政治温床上定期释放的烟幕弹和假消息。当时，我首次将美国的经济疾患比做“轻度肺炎”（walking pneumonia）。

    我当时写下的等式是：美国经济=“轻度肺炎”。

    我强烈建议人们不要纠缠于每日、每周或甚至是每月的报告。后退一步，以季度、半年和年度为基础来看待各种问题。我们需要稍作努力，从数据中剔除杂音，这样才能把握事实：我们面前的经济之路仍将是漫长而艰苦的。

    那时我们不怎么健康，现在的健康状况也并没有显著的改善。为什么这么说呢？

    几天前，我们收到了一份更谈成、更完整的经济报告，它是前一年GDP报告的修正版。但这些报告并未受到太多关注。

    如果没有意识到或者不理解我们所患“轻度肺炎”的详情，我们怎么能精确估量当前的形势呢？不能。尽管前文提到的战略家们和华盛顿的高人宁愿你依然被蒙在鼓里。

    就这一点而言，让我们看看上周由经济分析局（Bureau of Economic Analysis）发布的一份报告。该报告强调了一个事实，即我们的衰退当时就程度甚深，并且，在我看来，迄今仍对我们具有重大影响：

    2007-2010年间，真实的GDP以年均0.3%的速度下降；而在此前发表的估测中，真实的GDP是以年均不到0.1%的速度在增长。从2007年第四财季到2011年第一财季，真实的GDP在以年均0.2%的速度下降；在此前发表的估测中，真实GDP则是在以年均0.2%的速度在增长。

    真实GDP的负增长对我来说只意味着一件事。尽管美国政府不断开出强心剂，并由其得力干将本和蒂姆（指美联储主席本•伯南克和美国财长蒂姆•盖特纳——译注）加以实施，我们也从未正式摆脱衰退。炮制所谓的回暖苗头，V形复苏和其他各种伎俩的人更关心的是你的选票、消费、购买高价股票和每日交易，而不是你的长期经济福利。

    作为一个始终如一的乐观主义者，请同时让我与你分享上文提到的我 2010年3月那篇评论的结论：

    我们终会成功。我坚信这一点。也就是说，如同患有“轻度肺炎”的人一样，我们需要精心照顾自己，而不是让每天袭来的头晕诱使我们对自己的健康状况产生不切实际的乐观情绪。

    请按此精神找到前进的方向，并广为传播“正确的经济观”（sense on cents，双关语，既是华尔街流行的一句戏谑语，指对金钱的渴求，也暗指作者本人创办的网站www.senseoncents.com——译注）。

    拉里是华尔街资深人士，曾在第一波士顿（First Boston）、贝尔斯登（Bear Stearns）和联合银行（Union Bank）工作。他的博客请登录http://www.senseoncents.com/。

    译者：清远

    A wide array of supposedly smart people are now informing us that the economy is slowing and may slip back into recession. The new phrase being used to describe our economic condition is 'stall speed.'

    Well how about that? Stall speed, they say. Is the economy truly slowing? Is it really? Or perhaps did the real economy -- the one in which we live and operate, not the one fabricated by Wall Street pundits and Washington politicians -- never truly rebound?

    I ask because I firmly believe that our domestic economy never truly rebounded in a meaningful fashion over the last few years.

    I cautioned people to avoid the regular smoke and mirrors emanating from our financial and political hotbeds in spring 2010 when I first equated our economic malady as akin to "walking pneumonia."

    I wrote then, U.S. Economy = "Walking Pneumonia":

    I strongly recommend that people not get caught up in the daily, weekly, or even monthly reports. Take a step back and look at things from a quarterly, semi-annually, and annual basis. Let's work a little harder to eliminate the noise in figures so we can grasp the fact that the economic road in front of us will remain long and hard.

    We were not healthier then and we are not meaningfully healthier now. How do we know?

    We received a more honest and complete economic reading a few days ago in the revisions to prior year's GDP reports. These reports received limited attention.

    How can we accurately measure our current condition if we do not appreciate and understand the depth of our 'walking pneumonia'? We can't, although the aforementioned strategists and Washington wizards would rather you not know that.

    On that note, let's look at the report released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis last week highlighting the fact that our recession ran deeper then and, in my opinion, continues to significantly impact us now:

    For 2007-2010, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of less than 0.1 percent. From the fourth quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2011, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent.

    Negative real GDP readings to me spell one thing. We have never officially gotten out of recession despite all the sugar highs produced by Uncle Sam and executed by his boys, Ben and Tim. Talk of green shoots, V-shaped recovery, and assorted other tricks were designed by those who are more interested in your vote, your spending, your purchasing overpriced securities, and your daily trading than your long term economic well being.

    As an eternal optimist, though, let me also share with you how I concluded my March 2010 commentary referenced above:

    We'll make it. I am fully confident. That said, much like those with 'walking pneumonia,' we need to take care of ourselves rather than allow the daily spin to trick us into believing we are healthier than we really are.

    Navigate accordingly and spread the 'sense on cents.'

    Larry is a Wall Street veteran, having worked at such banks as First Boston, Bear Stearns and Union Bank. He blogs at http://www.senseoncents.com/