普拉达业绩逆市走高的秘密

    全球经济正深陷泥潭难以自拔，以至于下面这个消息显得有些难以置信：普拉达（Prada）上周二宣布，这个夏季的业绩非常出色，超出华尔街分析师的预期。任何做空这家奢侈品公司的投资者现在都吃了大亏。尽管目前的经济形势是60年以来最差的，显然还是有许多人愿意为2,000美元一个的手袋买单。

    这一业绩令人惊喜。普拉达今年上半年新开了26家专卖店，总门店数量已达358家。业绩超预期的一大原因是，该品牌没有像前几年那样被迫低价甩卖产品。那么，这是不是意味着苦日子已经到头了？

    美国还没有。尽管普拉达上半年在美国销售额增至率达到了16%，但它在亚洲市场的增幅更是高达35%，总营收增长了24%。新增销售额中有一半得益于亚洲市场的贡献，其中多数来自中国专卖店的强劲表现。普拉达在亚洲已有110家专门店，超过了整个欧洲（104家），比美国（40家）更是高出几倍。说到底，中国人真的是什么都买。

    从更普遍的角度来看，或许更好的表述是：富人什么都买，穷人啥都买不起。专门研究服饰和鞋类公司的瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）分析师克里斯蒂安•巴斯将这种反差归因于美国两类不同类型消费者之间贫富差距的扩大。这两类消费者可以分别称为“收入报表型”消费者和“资产负债表型”消费者。

    简而言之：54.5%的美国消费者年收入低于10万美元，这些人就是所谓的“收入报表型”消费者——他们根据本周的收入有多少，来决定是否购买某种商品。我们更进一步，可以发现在年收入低于5万美元的群体中，失业率维持在17%左右。统统加总起来的话，过去十年来，那些年收入低于10万美元的消费者在美国总消费支出中所占的比例下降了6%。同一期间内，这一人群的收入占国民收入的比例也从58%下降到了54.5%。

    巴斯认为，据此可得出简明扼要的结论：不要买入销售简单的非必需品的公司的股票，除非其股价已经非常低廉，远低于公允价值。这意味着极速骑板（Quiksilver）和哥伦比亚运动服饰（Columbia Sportswear）等公司可能面临风险。就极速骑板来说，该公司是一家成熟品牌，目前正在进行转型。此外，过于专注于美国国内市场的公司恐怕也不该看好，因为普拉达的业绩表明，服饰企业当前的增长潜力主要来自中国。此类公司包括以美国市场为核心的Limited Brands和Under Armour。

    接下来的是好消息：巴斯随后又阐述了“资产负债表型”消费者——也就是年收入高于10万美元的那45.5%人群。这些人的消费习惯通常并不会根据周薪变化而调整。他们的失业率维持在3.6%左右，用经济学家的话来说，这可算“完全就业”。（别问我为什么，显然他们认为4%的失业率已经是好得不能再好。）“资产负债表型”消费者正享受着一派繁荣——过去十年来他们的平均收入增长了10%，在国民收入中所占的比例自然也从42%提升到了45.5%。

    巴斯描述此种变化的方式非常谨慎，他表示：“我认为，人们应当认识到经济中出现了结构性变化，这相当重要——资产负债表型消费者从总收入这块馅饼中分到的比例越来越大。”换句话说，富人越来越富。

    巴斯的结论可不是玩笑话。哪些公司在做富人的生意，从而大赚特赚呢？普拉达当然少不了； Coach也是个典型，后者最近一个季度的业绩非常抢眼，中国市场销售额猛增了71%。

    爱马仕（Hermes）呢？这家公司以骑手风格围巾和领带著称，今年上半年营收猛增22%。

    最后再推荐一个公司：运动服饰制造商Lululemon。尽管我本人偏爱耐克（Nike）的运动服，我对Lululemon这家公司或者瑜伽运动本身都没什么意见。可是，谁会买100美元一条的瑜伽裤？富人，没错，就是那些有钱人。加拿大皇家银行（RBC）分析师霍华德•图宾最近表示，这个季度他看过的财报中，数Lululemon的业绩最强劲。最近一个季度里，该公司的营收、利润率和每股收益全部实现增长，这倒有点像普拉达。尽管如此，这只股票的表现表明人们普遍看好这家公司，因此现在算不上入手的绝佳机会。

    借着瑜伽流行的东风，Lulu甚至有可能抢走普拉达的风头。美国银行（Bank of America）分析师罗莱因•哈奇辛认为该公司2012年将会新开35家专卖店。最近一个季度，该公司营收增长了40%。也许每个人心里都藏着个瑜伽大师，或者藏着对真皮手包的渴求，抑或两者兼有。

    Here's a piece of counter-narrative news as economies around the globe continue to struggle: Prada announced yesterday that it had a great quarter this summer, exceeding Wall Street's expectations. Anyone who bet against the luxury brand is now chastised. Even in the worst economy in a generation, plenty of people are apparently going to buy those $2,000 handbags.

    The results were surprising. Prada opened 26 stores in the first half of the year, bringing its total to 358. One of the reasons it beat the mark was that it wasn't forced into discounts as it had been in recent years. So does this mean the pain is actually over?

    Not on these shores. Even though Prada saw U.S. sales growth of 16% in the half, it also enjoyed a 35% sales rise in Asia. Revenues grew 24% overall. A full 50% of total sales growth came courtesy of Asia, mostly from spending in stores in China itself. One hundred and ten of the company's stores are in Asia—more than in all of Europe (104) and many, many than in the entire United States (40). In the end, the Chinese really will buy everything.

    Or, in more general terms, the rich will buy everything while the poor will buy nothing. Christian Buss, who covers apparel and footwear for Credit Suisse, attributes the divergence in the U.S. to the growing chasm between two types of consumers: 'Income Statement' consumers and 'Balance Sheet' consumers.

    Here's the basic idea: 54.5% of U.S. consumers make less than $100,000 a year. These are 'Income Statement' consumers, the kind of people who decide whether they want to buy something based on this week's paycheck. Working our way down, the unemployment rate for those making less than $50,000 per year hovers around 17%. All-in, the role of those earning under $100,000 in our overall spending has declined by 6% over the past ten years. The income for the entire crowd has declined from 58% of the total to 54.5% over that time.

    The simple conclusion, according to Buss: don't buy stock in those companies that sell simple discretionary items, except if you're going to go deep discount. That means that Quiksilver (ZQK) and Columbia Sportswear (COLM) could be at risk. Quiksilver, for its part, is a mature brand and also in the midst of a turnaround. And don't focus on companies that have too much of a domestic focus since, as Prada shows, much of the growth potential right now is coming from China. That would include U.S.-centric companies like Limited Brands (LTD) and Under Armour (UA).

    Here's the good news. Buss goes on to identify 'Balance Sheet' consumers -- the 45.5% of the people who make more than $100,000 a year. These are people whose spending doesn't really change based on their weekly paycheck. Their employment rate hovers around 3.6%, what economists call "full employment." (Don't ask me. Apparently 4% unemployed is like 11 on the Spinal Tap amp.) The 'Balance Sheet' consumers are thriving -- they have seen an increase in average income of 10% over the past 10 years. Their share of total income has naturally risen, from 42% to 45.5%.

    Buss states the change in a very politic way. "I think it's important for people to know that this is a structural change in the economy," he says, "that the balance sheet consumer continues to gain share of the total income pie." In other words, the richer are getting richer.

    The man isn't kidding. So who is selling to the rich and winning? Prada, for one. Coach, for two. Coach (COH) nailed it in its last quarter. It had 71% sales growth in China.

    And what of Hermes? The maker of equestrian-inspired scarves and ties enjoyed 22% revenue growth in the first half of the year.

    Here's a final one for you: athletic apparel maker Lululemon (LULU). While I prefer Nike (NKE) running clothing, I have nothing against the chain. Or even yoga itself. But who is buying $100 pairs of yoga pants? The rich, that's who. RBC analyst Howard Tubin said recently that Lululemon's results were among the strongest he'd seen this reporting season. Lululemon had all of revenue growth, margin growth, and earnings-per-share growth in its latest quarter. Kind of like Prada. That said, the stock reflects people's excitement about the story, so it's no screaming buy.

    Lulu may even run down the Yogi's lane against the Italians. Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchsion thinks Lululemon will open 35 stores in 2012. The firm's sales increased 40% in their last quarter. Perhaps we will all find our inner yoga master. Or our need for leather handbags. Or both.