现金为王，投资至上

    健康的资产负债表通常被拿来作为支持公司股价增长的理由之一。背后的理论是，资产负债表上现金的增加是公司运营状况健康的迹象，它也为公司提供了进行收购所需的弹药。因此，当资产负债表变得更加健康时，由于并购机会的增加，市场理应出现潜在的股票购买需求。

    我们上周末对标准普尔500指数中市值最大的50家公司的资产负债表变化情况进行了观察，将其作为更大范围内公司资产负债表健康程度的代表。这些公司的合计市值刚好超过了标准普尔500成分股公司总市值的一半，因此这是美国公司一个比较合理的样本群体。

    我们在这项分析中剔除了金融类公司。对标准普尔500指数中市值最大的50家公司而言，这包括花旗集团（Citigroup）、高盛公司（Goldman Sachs ）、富国银行（Wells Fargo）、摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）股价及美国银行（Bank of America）。此举显然不是为了低估金融类公司资产负债表的相关性，而是为了简化分析，把关注的重点放在运营现金和债务上面——而不是尝试着破译各大银行的资产负债表及其现金和债务的性质。

    下面的图表显示的是从2008年6月30日至2011年6月30日，标准普尔500指数中50家市值最大公司每个季度的现金（包括短期投资和现金等价物）、债务（短期和长期）和净债务余额。在这段时间内，现金增加了2,730亿美元，或者说49％。同期的债务增长了780亿美元。总的来说，自2008年6月30日以来，由于净债务下降了约2,000亿美元，这些公司的资产负债表获得了显著的改善。

    The health of corporate balance sheets is commonly cited as a reason to be supportive of higher stock prices. The theory is that as corporations build cash on their balance sheets, it's a sign of operational health and it also provides ammunition to make acquisitions. Therefore as balance sheets get healthier, there should be an underlying bid to equities due to increased M&A prospects.

    We spent the weekend looking at the progression of corporate balance sheets for the 50 largest market capitalized companies in the S&P 500 as a proxy for the health of corporate balance sheets more generally. Collectively, this group of companies is just over 50% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500, so it's a reasonable proxy for corporate America.

    In this analysis, we also removed the financials, which for the largest 50 companies in the S&P 500 includes Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), J.P. Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC). The point is obviously not to understate the relevance of the balance sheets of banks, but rather to simplify the analysis and focus on operational cash and debt versus trying to decipher the balance sheets of the major banks and the nature of their cash and debt obligations.

    In the chart below, we show the quarterly cash (short term investments and cash equivalents), debt (short and long term), and net debt balances of the largest 50 companies in the S&P 500 by market capitalization going back quarterly from June 30, 2011 to June 30, 2008. In that time period, cash has grown by $273 billion, or 49%. Over the same period, debt grew by $78 billion. In aggregate, corporate balance sheets, on this basis, have seen meaningful improvement since June 30, 2008 as net debt has declined by almost $200 billion over the period.

    有趣的是，如果我们把通用电气公司（General Electric）从这项分析中剔除，公司的现金增长情况就显得不那么积极了。正如下图所示，在剔除通用电气后，从2008年第2季度到2011年第3季度，现金增长了2,000多亿美元。与此同时，债务的增长数额与此相仿。因此，如果以净债务作为资产负债表的健康指标，标准普尔500指数中50家市值最大公司（不包括银行和通用电气）如今的状况跟3年前几乎完全一样。

    Interestingly, if we back out General Electric (GE) from this analysis, the growth of cash on corporate balance is less positive. As the chart below shows, after removing GE, cash grew by over $200 billion from Q2 2008 to Q3 2011. At the same time, debt grew by a comparable amount. So on the basis of net debt as a proxy for health of the balance sheet, the largest 50 companies in the S&P 500, excluding the banks and GE, look almost exactly the same today as they did three years ago.

    但是这绝不意味着公司资产负债表的健康状况不佳。事实上，如果按照更长期的历史研究来观察，公司资产负债表是相当健康的。《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)在最近的一项研究中强调指出，“在公司从建筑物到债券的所有资产中，现金占了7.1％，是1963年以来的最高水平。”

    尽管如此，目前还不清楚，资产负债表上的现金是否应被视为一个驱动股价的积极因素。

    相反，现金持续增长，但却没有用来投资，这是一个有点令人不安的现象，尤其是考虑到现金和短期投资目前获得的利率是如此之低。在2008年第3季度，90天货币市场利率约为3％，如今在0.4％左右。由于利率下降，从2008年第2季度到2011年第2季度，按年率计算的利息收入下降了逾130亿美元，从160亿美元下降至30亿美元多一点。因此，虽然现金余额的增长相对积极，但现金回报的下降已远远抵消了现金增长带来的好处。

    最后，我们审视了过去3年以来改善程度最好的资产负债表和表现最差的资产负债表，分析的基础都是净债务的增长。如上所述，通用电气的资产负债表看起来较3年前获得了显著改善。消极方面，埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil ）的资产负债表规模同期则出现了大幅度下降，从301亿美元的净现金下降至65亿美元的净债务。

    显然，美国公司的资产负债表还算体面，但我们奉劝大家不要将其看作市场的良性催化剂。相反，我们甚至可以认为，只要现金没有用于生产性支出，而是闲置在资产负债表上，仅仅赚取微薄的回报率，它其实是在拖累公司收益的增长。事实上，公司现金闲置，满足于赚取菲薄的回报率，这种做法其实是向外界表明，它们看不到有价值的增长机会。

    现金为王，但前提是它能赚取回报。

    译者：任文科

    None of this is to say that corporate balance sheets are in poor health. In fact, based on longer term historical studies, corporate balance sheets are quite healthy. A recent study by the Wall Street Journal highlighted that "Cash accounted for 7.1% of all company assets, everything from buildings to bonds, the highest level since 1963."

    That said, it is just not clear that cash on balance sheets should be considered a positive catalyst for stock prices.

    Conversely, it is somewhat disconcerting that cash is growing and not being invested, especially given the low interest rates that cash and short-term investments are earning. In Q3 2008, the 90-day money market rate was roughly 3% versus roughly 0.4% now. As a result of declining rates, the change in interest income on an annualized basis from Q2 2008 to Q2 2011 was a decline more than $13 billion, from $16 billion to just over $3 billion. So, while cash balances growing are a positive, the decline in the return on cash has more than offset that positive.

    Finally, we examined the most improved balance sheet over the last three years and the worst performing balance sheet, all on the basis of growth of net debt. As mentioned above, GE appears to have a dramatically improved balance sheet from three years ago, while on the negative side, Exxon Mobil (XOM) has seen its balance sheet decline over that period from $30.1 billion in net cash to $6.5 billion in net debt.

    Clearly, corporate balance sheets in the U.S. are in decent shape, but we would caution against using that as a market catalyst. Arguably, as well, it is actually a drag on earnings growth as long as cash sits on the balance sheet unproductively earning low rates of return. In fact, by letting cash sit and earn low rates of return, corporations are actually signaling that they do not see meaningful growth opportunities in the future.

    Cash is king . . . if it earns a return.