卡扎菲之死给欧元区带来一线生机

    不论是对利比亚反对派还是洛克比空难遇难者的家属来说，穆阿迈尔•卡扎菲的死都是个好消息。欧盟领导人来为了拯救陷入经济困境的欧盟成员国已经焦头烂额，而卡扎菲的死则为他们带来了一线曙光，至少它足以扑灭欧元区的一个火点。

    意大利一直是利比亚的贸易合作伙伴，两国交往密切，该国能源公司埃尼集团（ENI）是利比亚最大的石油生产公司。去年利比亚革命爆发之前，埃尼集团石油总产出中有15%来自利比亚的油田。当时，利比亚的日均石油产量约150万桶，但在战争最激烈时曾一度跌至零。随着卡扎菲时代的终结，利比亚的石油工业很可能会迅速反弹。

    但石油行业咨询公司Lipow Associates总裁安德鲁•李泊认为：“问题在于，利比亚的石油行业需要多长时间才能恢复到革命前的水平。出口可能需要一年半的时间才能恢复到革命前的水平，但日均石油产量超过50万桶有望于今年年底前就实现，而日产100万桶的水平，则需到2012年上半年才能实现。”此外，自从利比亚前领导人被击毙的消息传出之后，埃尼集团的股票上涨了4%。

    卡扎菲之死给意大利经济带来的另外一个利好因素是：上周二，利比亚恢复天然气出口。意大利是天然气消费大国，其中10%的需求一直由利比亚提供。李泊称，利比亚恢复天然气出口，意味着意大利可以节省部分从其他国家进口天然气的成本。更重要的是，这将避免今年冬季出现天然气价格飙升和供应短缺的问题。甚至意大利的加油站也将从中获益：意大利是重要的汽车用天然气消费国，全国新车销量中，25%的汽车使用液化天然气或压缩天然气，而不是汽油。

    或许，卡扎菲之死为意大利和欧洲其他国家带来的最大收获在于利比亚重建。李泊认为，由于北约（NATO）支持反对派，因此在利比亚重建业务的争夺中，欧洲公司相对中国和俄罗斯公司而言已经占得先机。虽然目前尚不能准确计算利比亚基础设施与能源行业重建所需的成本，但肯定会高达数十亿美元。随着被美国冻结的370亿美元利比亚资产解冻，利比亚新政府马上就会获得进行重建工作所需资金。

    卡扎菲之死不是欧盟的救命稻草。但正如奥利雷恩在今天早些时候接受采访时所说，意大利现在“迫切”需要采取措施促进增长，即便效果甚微也聊胜于无。奥利雷恩现任欧盟经济与货币事务委员会（EU Economic and Monetary Affairs）委员。

    译者：阿龙/汪皓

    The death of Moammar Gadhafi is welcome news for many people, from Libyan rebels to the families of the Pan Am flight 103 victims. For EU leaders struggling to find any glimmers of hope for their economically troubled members, Gadhafi's death may be enough to tamp down at least one fire in the euro zone.

    Italy has long been a close trading partner of Libya, and its energy firm ENI (E) is one of the largest producers of oil in Libya. Ahead of the revolution last year, ENI was generating 15% of its total output from Libyan wells. Libyan oil production, around 1.5 million barrels a day before the revolution, fell to essentially zero during the height of the fighting, but now with Gadhafi gone, the Libyan oil industry may rebound fairly quickly.

    "The question is how rapidly can it approach pre-revolution levels," says Andrew Lipow, president of oil industry consulting firm Lipow Associates. "To export what it had pre-revolution levels is probably a year and a half away, but producing over half million barrels a day is probably by the end of this year and a million per day in the first half of 2012." Already shares of ENI have rallied 4% since the Libyan leader's death was announced.

    Another plus to the Italian economy is that natural gas exports resumed last Thursday. Italy is a significant natural gas user and historically gets 10% of its needs from Libya. The resumption of Libyan natural gas flows means Italy probably saves some money on costs from other natural gas imports it was having delivered, notes Lipow. More significantly, it likely helps avoid price spikes or gas shortages during the coming winter. It even will probably help at the gas pump: Italy is a significant user of natural gas for automobiles, with as much as 25% of new car sales from cars that use LNG or CNG instead of gasoline.

    The big potential benefit for Italy and the rest of Europe: rebuilding Libya. European countries should have the inside track over Chinese and Russian firms on winning business since NATO supported the rebels, adds Lipow. The tab for rebuilding Libya's infrastructure and its energy industry isn't accurately calculated yet, but it will certainly be in the billions of dollars, money that the new Libyan government will have at hand with the release of $37 billion in frozen Libyan assets by the U.S.

    Gadhafi's death won't save the EU. But considering EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters this morning that Italy "urgently" needs to take steps to bolster growth, every little bit helps.