苹果营收低于预期没什么大不了

    苹果最新季度财报发布之后，读者肯定会看到大量评论，试图将苹果公司（Apple）营收下降归结于一些模棱两可的原因，比如全球宏观经济环境持续恶化，史蒂夫•乔布斯过世等，或者把这视为苹果公司增长放缓的信号。

    不了解苹果公司的人肯定会认为，全球经济增长前景堪忧，苹果公司最终还是不得不屈从于现实，而且随着公司灵魂人物的离世，苹果的好日子已经到头了。他们会认为苹果公司第四财季出现的营收下降是一个明确的警告信号，表明公司的股票已经达到最高点，之后只会不断下降，投资者必须做好准备。

    首先，这些论调纯属一派胡言。凡是说苹果公司已过巅峰，将走下坡路的人，根本不了解公司的运营或财务状况：不出三年时间，苹果拥有的现金总量就将超过它的市值。

    按2012年的盈利预期计算，公司股票市盈率为8倍，而且没有负债；如果来年收回预期的1,500亿美元现金，则市盈率仅为5倍。别忘了，我们谈论的可是一家年收益增长率为80%的公司。

    问题是，如果苹果公司表现如此优异，又怎么会出现收入下降呢？史蒂夫•乔布斯刚刚离世，苹果公司就出现了2004年以来的首次下降，这是不是有些蹊跷？上个季度，苹果公司的表现还超出华尔街的预期33.6%，这还是同一家苹果公司吗？

    实际上，苹果还是那个苹果。收入的下降与“增长放缓”、史蒂夫•乔布斯离世，或者全球宏观经济环境没有任何关系。那么，原因到底何在？

    苹果公司上周二公布的收入下降其实只不过是因为分析师过度纠结于他们的预期。苹果公司每个季度都会超出自己制定的营收指标12% - 18%。自从苹果公司于2009年修改会计标准之后，公司股票收入始终高于营收指标12% - 18%，浮动区间保持在6%以内。

    分析师基本都明白这一点，并且，他们的预期几乎都比苹果公司的营收指标高出5%到10%。这样一来，要想超出分析师的预期，苹果公司就要做得更多，而且这种情况会不断重复。只要苹果能够做到，这种“增长神话”就不会露出破绽 —— 即便这套算法根本没什么道理可言。

    本季度，苹果公司超出营收预期13.08%。实际上，这一增长幅度，远远超过苹果在2010年第4财季与2011年第2财季的表现。而且，这也恰好属于12% - 18%的正常幅度。

    从苹果的角度来看，公司之所以提出250亿美元的营收指标，是因为公司非常清楚，这个季度是过渡时期。公司在电话会议中也对分析人士解释，这是一个过渡季。但即便如此，公司的表现一如既往地优秀，超出营收指标13.08%。

    因此，分析师对自己的估算如此执着，并不是苹果公司的错。苹果公司的表现始终如一，其实际营收超出指标的幅度仍在12% - 18%的范围之内。

    You're going to come across quite a bit of commentary today that will try and pin Apple's earnings miss to some vague notion of the weakening global macroeconomic environment, to the death of Steve Jobs or to the beginning of a general slowdown at Apple.

    Those who know very little about the company will try to argue that Apple has finally succumbed to intensifying global growth concerns, and that without its master chief architect, Apple's best days are now behind it. They will point to Apple's fiscal fourth quarter miss as a clear warning sign that the stock has peaked and that all investors have to look forward to is lower prices from here.

    First of all, these arguments are total nonsense. Anyone who says that Apple (AAPL) has topped or that it cannot go any higher has zero working knowledge about the company or its financials. The company is going to have more cash than its entire market cap in less than three years.

    The stock is trading at only 8 times its calendar 2012 earnings, has no debt and if you back out Apple's expected cash of $150 billion next year, then it is only trading at 5 times next year's earnings. You're talking about company that's growing its earnings at 80% a year.

    So this raises the question. If Apple is so amazing, then how can the company miss? Isn't it sort of curious that the minute Steve Jobs departs this earth, Apple misses for the first time since 2004? Is this the same Apple that tends to beat Wall Street expectations by 33.6% like it did last quarter?

    The fact is that nothing about the company has changed. Almost none of this earnings miss has anything to do with "slowing growth," Steve Jobs or the global macroeconomic environment. But if it's not slowing growth, then what can it possibly be?

    Apple's big miss on Tuesday was the inevitable result of analysts getting too carried away with their expectations. Every quarter Apple tends to beat its own revenue guidance by a range of 12%-18%. Since Apple changed its accounting standards back in 2009, the stock has consistently beaten its revenue guidance in that tight 6% range between 12%-18%.

    Analysts for the most part have come to understand this and have tended to offer a consensus that is between 5% and 10% above Apple's revenue guidance. That way, Apple has plenty of room to beat those expectations and the game goes round and round. As long as Apple beats, the growth story is in tact -- even though such math doesn't even make sense.

    This quarter, Apple beat its revenue expectations by 13.08%. That was actually a bigger beat than the earnings beat Apple delivered on its revenue guidance in fiscal Q4 2010 and in fiscal Q2 2011. It also falls within the normal range of 12%-18% that we've seen over the past several years.

    From Apple's perspective, it gave guidance of $25 billion in revenue because it knew that this was a transition quarter, it explained that this was a transition quarter in the conference call, and it delivered a 13.08% beat -- which is what it normally does.

    Thus, it's not Apple's fault that analysts got too carried away with their estimates. Apple was consistent – it delivered a beat that was within a 12%-18% range of its guidance.