欧债危机：欧盟再施援手将埋下更大的祸根

    当今发达世界面临着一个左右为难的尴尬境地：宽松信贷可以解决金融问题，但同时也会导致金融问题。欧洲领导人峰会周三商讨如何应对希腊（以及意大利和西班牙）财政危机时就将面临这个两难的选择。的确需要投入更多的资金才能让市场相信，一切都会好起来。但这能解决问题吗？还是只是权宜之计？

    野村资本（Nomura Capital）上周发布的研究报告称，预计欧盟领导人将加快推出欧洲稳定机制（European Stabilization Mechanism，ESM）来取代现有的欧洲金融稳定基金（European Financial Stability Facility，EFSF）。这些拗口的名词主要涉及欧盟如何管理其账目。而实际结果将是处于金融困境的欧盟成员国将获得1.3万亿美元（9,400亿欧元）的巨额放贷能力，远高于欧洲金融稳定基金尚未确定的4,000亿美元（额外的2,000亿美元早已分发，在爱尔兰和葡萄牙取得了良好成效，但希腊的效果并不如人意）。新举措或许能让市场相信，欧盟仍然有充足的资本，欧元区经济疲弱的国家尽管深陷困境，但问题仍能得到控制；但长远看它只会加深当前所有西方经济体都面临的一个更重大的问题：债务超级周期。

    债务超级周期一词近年来流行于政府决策层。这一概念最早是2007年由BCA Research首先提出，这家银行业独立研究机构的名字时常出现在各国央行行长收件箱的首列。债务超级周期的概念很简单：有效的经济政策需要赤字支出和刺激性措施来阻止金融危机、恢复经济增长；但如果这么做，就会为未来更大的泡沫破灭埋下伏笔。

    最典型的例子是上世纪90年代初，当时用低利率来应对储贷危机。宽松的流动性助长了互联网泡沫的膨胀。后来为应对互联网泡沫破灭，政府运用了更为宽松的货币政策，但这也为楼市及相关衍生品泡沫的膨胀和破灭埋下了祸根。问题是被迫日渐升级的应对方案意味着，终有一天这个经济体将再也无力发行足够的债务来刺激经济增长，因为它已背负了过多的债务。

    摆在我们面前的一个重大问题是：情况要发展到什么水平，债务超级周期将不得不宣告终结？大多数经济学家和政策制定者们认为，债务/GDP比率达到100%后经济将变得不可持续：从历史上看，超过这一水平会被视为将进入长期、缓慢的经济下滑和政治倒退（大英帝国，我可看着你呢。）。

    更近一点的例子是债务/GDP比率高达226%、数十年来经济停滞的日本。一些经济学家认为，日本的大部分债务都由国人持有，在某种程度上缓和了高负债带来的压力（就像右手欠左手钱——归根结底，钱还是在你的手里。）希腊和意大利的债务/GDP比率虽然比日本低约100个百分点，但大部分债务都不是由本国持有。根据最新统计数据，当前欧元区整体的债务/GDP比率为85%，增加1万亿美元的救助资金将使该比率立即上升至94%。

    毫无疑问，如果我们想避免全球金融市场灾难重演，欧盟必须采取行动，使希腊债务更加可控。也许这次还能成功。但下一次泡沫危机来袭时，我们还会有转圜的余地吗？

    Here's the paradox the developed world faces today: easy credit is the solution to financial problems, and easy credit is the source of financial problems. This is the dilemma European leaders face when aiming to manage the terrible fiscal problems of Greece (and Italy and Spain) at their summit Wednesday. More money is needed to assure the markets everything will be okay, but will that solve the problem or just push out the pain?

    In its research note last week, Nomura Capital said it expects EU leaders to accelerate the introduction of the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM) to replace the current European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). This alphabet soup mainly had to do with how the EU manages its books. The practical result, though, will be a massive fund of $1.3 trillion (940 million euro) in lending power to throw at weak EU member financial troubles, far more than the $400 billion funds currently uncommitted in the EFSF (an additional $200 billion has already been doled out with decent results to Ireland and Portugal, and not so effectively to Greece). This likely will assure markets there is enough capital to contain the problems in the weaker euro countries, but it only adds to a greater problem all the Western economies are facing: the debt supercycle.

    The debt supercycle is an idea that has been knocking around policy circles for the a few years, since it was first elucidated in 2007 by BCA Research, an independent banking research firm that often finds itself at the top of central banker inboxes. The debt supercycle is a simple idea: Sound economic policy requires deficit spending and stimulus efforts to stop financial crises and restore economic growth. But in doing so, it lays the groundwork for even bigger bust later on.

    The prime example was seen in the early 1990s, when the S&L crisis was countered with low interest rates. The easy money from that helped spark the dot-com boom. Even looser monetary policy was used to counter the dot-com bust, but lay the groundwork for the housing and related-derivatives boom and bust. A problem is that increasingly larger responses mean at some point at an economy just can't issue enough debt reflate its economy because there is already too much debt.

    The big question: where is that level where the debt supercycle must end? Most economists and policymakers see the 100% level of debt-to-GDP as the line where economies become unsustainable: historically, rising above this level is seen as sparking a long, slow economic and political descent (I'm looking at you, British Empire).

    A more current example is Japan, with 226% of debt to GDP and its decades-long stagnation. Some economists argue that high level is mitigated somewhat by the fact most Japanese debt is owned by Japanese (think of it as your right hand owing your left hand money -- ultimately, you'll still have that money.) Greece and Italy are about 100 percentage points below Japan's level but much of that is owed outside the country. The euro zone as a whole is at 85% debt to GDP right now, and adding a trillion dollars in bailout funds immediately raises that to 94% judging by latest statistics.

    There's little doubt that if we want to avoid another world financial market apocalypse the EU has to do something to make Greek debt more manageable. And it may work now. But will there be wiggle room to tackle the next bubble?