法国信用保级行动不力或激化欧元危机

    上周，随着交易员们开始将他们的经济视角从欧洲那些恣意挥霍的边缘经济体转到了欧洲核心经济体身上，法国债券的保险成本出现了大幅攀升。几个月来，法国一直在竭力试图拿出一个方案，希望能保住其让人垂涎的AAA评级，并让市场相信法国的经济状况良好。虽然法国的状况好于意大利，但显然不如其顶级信用评级显示的那么健康。法国清楚需要做些什么才能改善财政状况，但可能需要有一场像意大利那样的危机，法国才会最终痛下决心。

    上周随着意大利政坛震荡以及意大利最大的银行裕信银行（Unicredit）公布创纪录的亏损业绩，意大利占据了很多欧洲以外媒体的头条位置。但比起罗马，纽约和欧洲的很多交易员似乎对来自巴黎的消息更感兴趣。上周一，法国总理弗朗索瓦•菲永公布了一项备受期待的紧缩方案，希望藉此能保住法国让人羡慕的AAA信用评级，促进经济增长。

    然而，市场并不买账。伦敦的一些经纪人称，紧缩方案公布后法国债券的信贷违约掉期（CDS）息差反而跃升至创纪录的236个基点。这意味着如果一个持有1,000万欧元法国债券的投资者要保护自己免受主权债券违约的损失，需要每年支付多达236,000欧元。鉴于法国拥有完美的AAA信用评级，其债券理应被视为零风险，眼下这样的保险成本实在是太高了。

    CDS息差大涨可能让法国不少政界人士大感意外，因为他们一度认为自己提出的紧缩措施已经相当严厉。根据这项紧缩方案，法国公司税率将增加5%，服务类增值税税率从5.5%升至7%，颇有争议的法定退休年龄从60岁推迟至62岁的改革措施也将提前一年实施。方案还取消了一些税收减免措施和国家补助措施。

    菲永称，他希望紧缩方案2012年能实现预算节省约70亿欧元，2013年再节省116亿欧元。他预计到2016年底前，总计将节省650亿欧元。

增长放缓，税基缩水

    这个方案看似力度很大，但只要略微细看便知并没有什么。“节省”主要来自加税，而不是缩减庞大的福利支出。如此大幅加税很可能放缓法国业已乏力的经济增长。随着法国经济增长停滞，纳税基数亦然，任何可能获得的“节省”也无从谈起。

    The cost to insure French debt soared this week as traders started to shift their attention away from the economic health of Europe's more profligate periphery to that of its core members. France has been scrambling for months to come up with a plan to save its coveted triple-A credit rating and convince the markets that it is in fine economic shape. While the country is better off than Italy, it is certainly not as healthy as its perfect credit rating suggest. France knows what it needs to do to get its fiscal house in order, but it risks facing an Italian-like crisis to finally bite the bullet.

    Italy has dominated the headlines out of Europe this week as its government fell into chaos and its largest bank, Unicredit, reported a record loss. But many traders in New York and Europe seemed more interested in the news coming out of Paris than Rome. On Monday, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon revealed a much anticipated austerity package that was meant to save France's coveted triple-A credit rating and help spur growth.

    The market was not impressed. After the announcement, the cost to insure French debt using credit default swaps jumped to a record 236 basis points, according to brokers in the City of London. That meant it would cost as much as 236,000 euros per year for an investor holding 10 million euros of French bonds to protect themselves from a sovereign default. That's a considerable payout on debt that should ostensibly be considered risk free given the nation's perfect triple-A credit rating.

    The jump in CDS spreads probably shocked many French politicians who thought that the measures they had proposed were extremely tough. The plan would see corporate tax rates go up by 5%, while the value added tax on services would go up from 5.5% to 7%. It would bring forward by one year the implementation of a controversial plan to raise the retirement age in France from 60 to 62 years old. The plan also eliminated some tax deductions and state assistance.

    Fillion said he hoped the plan would bring about 7 billion euros in budget savings in 2012 and a further 11.6 billion euros in savings for 2013. In total, he said the plan would produce 65 billion euros in savings by 2016.

Slower growth, smaller tax base

    That might seem like a tough plan, but it looks pretty weak when one drills down a bit. The bulk of the "savings" in the plan come from tax hikes as opposed to cuts in the country's bloated welfare state. Such large tax increases will most likely slow France's already anemic economic growth rate. As the country's growth rate stalls, so will its tax base, negating any possible "savings" it might receive.