经济学家

    戴维•罗森博格

    加拿大Gluskin Sheff资产管理公司

    形势越糟糕，戴维•罗森博格的预测似乎就越准确。在美林集团（Merrill Lynch）被美国银行收购之后，这位悲观主义者便离开了美林，回到了老家多伦多，并成为Gluskin Sheff公司的首席经济学家。之后，他的经济预测便屡屡得到证实，尤其是在2011年。

    早在一月份时，其他经济学家都在寻找各种迹象，证明全球经济正在开始复苏，但罗森博格却将其称为“熊市反弹”。他认为，十年期国债的收益率将大幅下跌。正如他之后所说，这让他冒了巨大的风险。“我说过，（收益率）就会像7月份休斯敦人行道上的雪球一样融化。”

    事实确实如此：今年8月中旬，国债收益率有史以来首次下跌到2%以下，之后便一直在这一低位徘徊。罗森博格称：“大多数人仍以老套的商业周期来看待当前的经济形势。”他还认为，历史上的经济模式应该被放弃了（按照这套经济模式，GDP目前应该出现更为强劲的增长）。他对2012年是怎么看的呢？他认为通过总统大选、中国的财政制度和欧元的形势，答案已经显而易见，虽然这样的答案可能并非我们希望看到的。他说：“2012年，皇帝的新衣终将被扯下。”

    译者：阿龙/汪皓

    David Rosenberg

    Gluskin Sheff

    The worse things get, the more accurate David Rosenberg looks. The longtime bear decamped from Merrill Lynch following the Bank of America (BAC) takeover and returned to his home city of Toronto, where he became chief economist at Gluskin Sheff. Since then he has consistently nailed his economic projections, particularly in 2011.

    Back in January, when others were looking for signs that the global economy was beginning to rebound, Rosenberg called it a "bear market rally." He said that yields on 10-year Treasury bonds would plummet. As he later described it, that was sticking his neck out even further than he had in the past. "I said [yields] would melt like a snowball on the sidewalk in Houston in July."

    Consider them melted: In mid-August, yields fell below 2% for the first time ever, where they've more or less remained. "Most people are still looking through the lens of a garden-variety business cycle," Rosenberg says, adding that the economic patterns of history -- which would have indicated much stronger GDP growth by now -- have to go out the window. His take on 2012? He thinks we'll get answers -- from the presidential elections, Chinese fiscal policy, and the euro -- even though they may not be the ones we want. "In 2012," he says, "the emperor will be disrobed."