向中国学习：前副财长呼吁美国扩大支出

    中国经济欣欣向荣，而美国经济却举步维艰。原因何在？

    前美国副财长法兰克•纽曼在其新书中指出，美国政府支出不足，这是造成美国经济止步不前的主要原因所在。当前正值西方世界债务和赤字飙升、全球投资者胆战心惊之际，这无疑是一个很大胆的观点，即便纽曼本人也承认这一点。

    纽曼刚刚结束五年的任期，卸任深发展（Shenzhen Development Bank）董事长兼首席执行官。他说，政府支出和赤字没什么好担心的。他以中国为例，2008年底中国启动了为期两年的5,860亿美元支出计划，以避免经济衰退，保持中国经济持续增长。但是尽管中国扩大支出、促进增长的策略取得了成功，但奥巴马总统最新的刺激计划却更多地侧重于减税和向各州提供帮助上。

    应该承认，纽曼的新书《阻碍美国经济发展的六大迷思：美国可以从中国经济增长中学到什么》（Six Myths that Hold Back America: And what America can learn from the growth of China's economy）把这个问题过度简单化了，毕竟中美经济存在巨大差异。虽然纽曼也像很多人一样敦促美国政府增加对基础设施的支出，但他并不认同“过多的主权债务就是不负责任”这一普遍观点，由此与其他人划清了界限。

    我们最近就这本新书对纽曼进行了采访。下面是经过编辑的采访录音文字记录：

为什么你认为美国不需过多担忧赤字？

    在有1,400万人失业的情况下，财政赤字并不是什么坏事——这是政府拉动经济增长的一项必须且关键的工具。那些担忧美国债务水平的人根本没有弄清楚美国国债的本质。它不同于个人债务，甚至也不同于公司债务。

    没有比美国国债更安全的投资工具了。假如你是一个拥有1,000万美元的富有投资者、如果把这些钱存入银行，很可能根本拿不到多少利息，而且存款保险额度的上限只有25万美元。但如果你把钱投资美国国债，美国政府会提供全部的保证和信用。

但如果美国债务水平失控，不会让投资者担心，不会放缓美国经济增速吗？

    你也许听过一个国家的债务水平不能超过其国内生产总值（GDP）的70%，否则其经济将遇到大麻烦。这对于欧洲国家可能是正确的，但对其他国家可能不适合。美国的债务/GDP比率曾超过100%；英国到过150%-200%，完全没有问题；日本现在也超过了200%。日本经历了“失落的十年”，但即便如此，在大海啸之前的2010年，日本也是零通胀，失业率仅为5%，GDP增速超过3%。这么漂亮的数据正是美国和欧洲梦寐以求的。而且，日本国债销售异常火爆。

    而且，关于“美国举债，将给子孙后代们背上偿债的沉重包袱”是一个误区。真实情况是这些债务从未还清过。美国200多年的历史中几乎一直有债务，而且债务规模还在持续增加。

   Why is China's economy booming while America seems to struggle?

    Frank Newman, former deputy secretary of the U.S. Treasury, argues in a new book that America's government isn't spending enough, and that's largely what's hold its economy back. It's a bold statement that even Newman acknowledges, as the soaring debts and deficits in the Western world continue to unnerve investors across the globe.

    Newman, who recently completed five years as chairman and CEO of China-based Shenzhen Development Bank, says government spending and deficits aren't anything to fear. He points to China, which in late 2008 embarked on a two-year, $586 billion spending program to try to stave off a recession and keep the Chinese economy growing. But while China trumped its spend and build motto, President Obama's latest stimulus plan focused more on tax cuts and aid to states.

    Admittedly, Newman's book, Six Myths that Hold Back America: And what America can learn from the growth of China's economy, might come off as somewhat overly simplistic given the vast differences between the economies of China and the U.S. And while he joins many others urging increased spending on America's infrastructure, Newman sets himself apart by testing the popular perception that excessive sovereign debt is irresponsible.

    We caught up with him recently to talk about his book. Below is an edited transcript of the interview.

Why do you think the U.S. shouldn't worry so much about deficits?

    With 14 million people unemployed, deficits aren't a bad thing – they're an essential and critical tool for government to boost the economy. Those who worry about America's debt simply do not understand the nature of Treasury securities. It's not debt the way personal debt is or even the way corporate debt is.

    There's no safer place to invest than U.S. Treasuries. Suppose you are a wealthy investor with $10 million. If you leave it in the bank, you're probably not going to get any interest. And it's insured only up to $250,000. But if you put your money in Treasuries, they have the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.

But if our debt levels get out of control, wouldn't that worry investors and slow U.S. growth?

    You hear that you can't have more than 70% debt to GDP or your economy will run into big trouble. That may be true for Europe, but perhaps not for other countries. The U.S. has been over 100% before; Great Britain has been 150% to 200% and has done fine; Japan is over 200%. Even though Japan had this lost decade, in 2010, before the tsunami struck, Japan had no inflation with only 5% unemployment and over 3% GDP growth. The U.S. and Europe would have died to have such good numbers. And Japanese government bonds sold like crazy.

    And it's a myth that America's debt is going to be a great burden to our children and grandchildren who may have to repay it. The truth is it never gets paid back. In over 200 years American history, we've almost always had debt. It keeps going up.