Zynga上市首日破发实属正常

    几个月前，Zynga的形势确实一片大好。这家休闲游戏公司获利“丰厚”，切实从2011年其他首次公开募股的网络公司中脱颖而出。按照当时对该公司的股票估价，其市值可能高达200亿美元，着实让投资者们“欣喜若狂”。

    现在，该公司已然上市，情形却变得截然不同。Zynga股票于上周五正式上市，开盘价为10美元/股，相应地，公司价值只有70亿美元。尽管之后其股价又数次呈现上升之势，几度超过了11美元/股，但周五收盘时迅速跌至9.5美元。而至本周一，更是跌到了8.75美元。按此低点计算，Zynga的市值约为61亿美元，略低于商务社交网站LinkedIn 63亿美元的市值，尽管Zynga过去一年内的营收总额是LinkedIn的两倍。此外，照此计算，Zynga的市值还不足团购网站Groupon的一半。

    与此同时，Zynga迅速地从首次公开募股的英雄变成了狗熊，有关其股票如何浦一上市便“一败涂地”的报道无处不在。但是，这些分析绝大多数都忽略了一个关键细节。而且，这一细节与其说与Zynga的财务数据有关，不如说它与首次公开募股交易的幕后文化来得更为密切。Zynga一直希望能从此次募股中筹得10亿美元的资金。但是，路透社（Reuters）一语中的：为了实现上述目标，Zynga必须得放弃证券包销商通常向首次公开募股投资者提供的15%的折扣。事实上，只有这一折扣才能确保上市首日出现高价。

    尽管刚刚上市的股票价格注定飘忽不定，但是，人们通常习惯根据公司股票是高于还是低于各自最初的估价，全盘肯定或全盘否定一家公司的首次公开募股。尽管如此，如果对Zynga的状况进行相对深入的观察和分析，便会发现，事情远没那么简单。不错，市场有权质疑Zynga的股价是否公平。但是，该公司很可能不像有些批评家所说的那样糟糕透顶；相反，它的形势很可能比今年上市的其他网络股票要健康得多。

    在此仅以那些称Zynga上市失败的评论为例进行分析。如果与在线音乐网站潘多拉（Pandora，首日增长了9%）、Groupon（首日增长了31%）、以及LinkedIn（首日增长了109%）等其他网络公司的首次公开募股的首日表现相比，得出Zynga上市失败的结论再合理不过。但是，另外几家公司首日公开发行的股票比例比Zynga要小得多，只占其股票总数的5%~9%；而Zynga公开发行的股票，在其普通股中占了14%。

    Several months ago, things were looking very good indeed for Zynga. The casual-gaming company stood apart from other web IPOs of 2011 thanks to its "bountiful" profits. Investors were "excited" by an offering that could value the company at $20 billion.

    Now that Zynga (ZNGA) has gone public, things are looking much different. The stock debuted Friday at $10 a share, valuing the company at a relatively modest $7 billion. After popping above $11 a share for a few promising moments, the stock quickly sunk to $9.50 Friday and fell as low as $8.75 Monday. At that low point, Zynga's market value was $6.1 billion, a bit below LinkedIn's (LNKD) $6.3 billion market cap -- even though Zynga's revenue over the last 12 months was twice as large as LinkedIn's. Zynga's market value was also less than half that of Groupon (GRPN).

    Just as quickly, Zynga went from IPO hero to dog, with stories describing how its "dud" offering "fizzled." Much of that analysis overlooked a crucial detail that says less about Zynga's financials than it does about the backroom culture of IPO deals. Zynga always wanted to raise $1 billion in this offering. But to do that, as Reuters pointed out, it chose to forego the 15% discount that underwriters often give to IPO investors, a discount that virtually guarantees that first-day pop.

    Despite the volatility inherent in newly-listed stocks, there's a tendency to rate IPOs in a thumbs-up, thumbs-down manner, based on whether their stocks are above or below their respective offering prices. But a closer look at Zynga shows things are more complex than that. Yes, the market is right to question whether Zynga is fairly valued at its offering price. But Zynga may not be as bad off as some critics are suggesting -- and it may well be in much better shape than other web stocks that have gone public this year.

    Take, for example, the claim that Zynga's debut was a dud. That's seems true enough if you compare it to the first day performances of other web IPOs like Pandora (P) (up 9% on its first day), Groupon (up 31%) and LinkedIn (up 109%). But these companies launched with much smaller floats, offering between 5% and 9% of their total shares. Zynga offered a larger float, about 14% of its common stock.