黄金为何光芒不再

    金价连续第十一年上涨，成就了这一黄色金属跨时最长的一轮涨势。而且，在2011年的大多数时间里，金价攀升的势头似乎也所向披靡——9月份更是突破了1,900美元/盎司，创下高点。

    但最近几个月，很多知名投资者已经开始抛售所持头寸，这表明黄金的辉煌岁月可能即将终结。

    亿万富翁投资人乔治•索罗斯曾经将黄金称为“终极泡沫”，他早在5月份就减持了黄金上市交易基金SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)。对冲基金经理、长期看多黄金人士约翰•保尔森硬挺了几个月，第三季度也终于将黄金仓位削减了1/3。

    而且就在上周，曾正确预测2008年大宗商品价格暴跌的经济学家丹尼斯•加特曼也将所持黄金悉数售罄。他强调说，他并不看跌黄金，但这一贵金属已不完全是很多投资者所熟悉的避风港了。

    诚然，黄金市场中还没有什么人在高叫“熊来了”。但即便是最看涨的投资者也承认市场人气已发生了显著变化。

    上一次金价大跌是在1980年，当时金价在一年内跌去了60%以上。直到二十年后的2000年，投资者才开始看到正向回报。难道黄金正在重返熊市吗？

    自9月份见顶以来，金价已跌去了约15%。从技术角度而言，下跌20%即证明熊市开始。如今大宗商品投资市场变幻莫测，谁也说不准价格可能跌多少，但黄金距离正式进入熊市区间已不太远了。

    以下四个迹象表明黄金可能正在褪去其金灿灿的诱人光芒：

美国国债比黄金更受投资者宠爱

    世界可能崩溃，但黄金的价值将永存。大多数人秉持的这个观点长期以来一直在推动金价上涨。与其他大宗商品不同，黄金以内在价值著称，因为黄金鲜有实际用途。黄金一直被视为是在股市下跌和经济增速放缓时期的避风港。

    但眼下欧洲官员正全力应付债务危机，极力避免堕入经济衰退，投资者事实上已经开始撤出黄金了。每日金价的剧烈波动已促使投资者寻找更安全的避风港，他们已经找到了美国国债。颇具讽刺意味的是，4个月前标准普尔（Standard & Poor's）刚刚下调了美国完美的AAA信用评级。

    For the 11th year in a row, gold prices have rallied, making this one of the longest winning streaks for the yellow metal. And for most of 2011, it seemed like nothing could stop prices from climbing -- gold prices peaked in September at more than $1,900 an ounce.

    But in recent months, many high-profile investors have sold their positions, suggesting that gold's glory days could be coming to an end.

    Billionaire investor George Soros, who called gold "the ultimate bubble," cut his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) as early as May. Hedge fund manager and long-time gold bull John Paulson held tight for a few months, but eventually slashed his gold holdings by a third during the third quarter.

    And last week, economist Dennis Gartman, who correctly predicted the slump in commodities in 2008, sold off the last of his bullion. He stresses that he isn't bearish on gold, but thinks the precious metal isn't exactly the safe haven that many investors have come to know it.

    Admittedly, few are screaming bear in the gold market. But even the most bullish investors admit sentiments have changed in a noticeable way.

    The last time gold went bust was in 1980, when prices dropped more than 60% in a single year. It wasn't until 20 years later, in 2000, that investors saw positive returns. Is gold returning to a bear market?

    Since its September peak, gold has since lost about 15% of its value. Technically, it takes a 20% decline for a bear market to transpire. It's anyone's guess where price may fall in the murky world of commodities investing, but the precious metal doesn't have far to go before it formally enters bearish territory.

    Here are four signs that suggest gold may be losing its glitter:

U.S. Treasuries get more love than gold

    The world could nearly collapse, but the value of gold will remain. That popular notion has long fueled the rise of the yellow metal. Unlike other commodities, gold is known for its intrinsic value since there are few practical uses for it. And yet, it has been viewed as a safe haven from slumping stock markets and slow growth.

    But at a time when European officials struggle with debt woes and slip closer to a recession, investors have actually been scurrying away from gold. Daily price swings have sent investors looking for an even safer bet, and they've found it in U.S. Treasuries. Ironically enough, this comes only four months after Standard & Poor's stripped the U.S. of its stellar triple-A rating.