如何从负收益率债券中赚钱

    借钱给别人还要倒贴利息，这种事你会干吗？这就是眼下德国发生的情况。上周，短期德国国债收益率转为负值，这意味着投资者不仅放弃了投资德国国债的收益，而且，等到这些债券到期时，他们拿到的钱事实上会比投入的本金还要少。

    这事听起来可能有些荒诞，但我们可以换个角度来看待这个问题。投资者可能是为了在欧债危机之中希望道道一个安全的地方进行投资，同时，有可能投资者在收益率为负值的情形下仍然有利可图。

    上周一的国债拍卖中，德国售出了49.6亿美元的6个月国债，平均收益率为-0.0122%。据报道，这是德国国债拍卖首次出现负收益率。但《华尔街日报》（The Wall Street Journal）指出的那样， 几年前金融危机最严重的时候，短期美国国债的收益率也曾经跌至负值。鉴于市场中所有的不确定因素，投资者将资金从高风险投资中撤出，投入更安全的证券，其中主要是短期美国国债。

    通常，投资者总是希望将来拿到的钱能多于借出去的钱。但上周德国国债拍卖的结果表明，由于担心投资其他地方可能造成更大的损失，投资者或许愿意承受相对更小的损失。但事实上，投资者得到的回报可能要多于预期。

    其一，假如未来欧洲危机进一步恶化，与债券价格反向而动的债券收益率进一步下跌的话，这批德国债券的价格可能会上涨。

    而且，如果通货紧缩抬头，投资者还有望获得更高一些的回报率；由于市场预计今年欧洲可能会陷入经济衰退，不能排除出现通货紧缩的可能性。如果物价在长时间持续下跌，把钱塞在床垫下或保险箱里可能对投资者更有利。不消说，企业和投资经理们不可能这么干，尽管旷日持久的欧债危机持续打击人们投资和放贷的积极性。因此，他们涌入短期国债寻求避风港，期望将来能获得高于预期的回报率。

    迈阿密大学（University of Miami）金融学教授布莱恩•巴里特是这样看的：假设某短期国债的收益率为- 0.5%，年底到期偿付1,000美元。因此该国债价格应为1,005。

    现在，假设年初时复印纸价格为每箱10美元。用这1,005美元，公司可以买100.50箱。

    但假设这家公司不这么做，而是把钱塞到了床垫下。全年物价稳步走低。到年底时，通货膨胀率已降至-1%，即这时一箱复印纸的价格仅为9.90美元。这时，这家公司再拿出那1,005美元，就可以买101.52箱，比年初划算多了。

    显然，公司不能把钱藏在床垫下。管理层需要把手头的现金投入使用，因此他们采取了类似的做法。这部分投资者为公司资金寻找的是低风险的投资领域，因此选择购买负收益率的债券。他们在年初买入1,005美元的债券，年底到期可获得1,000美元。用这些钱，公司可购买101.01箱复印纸，仍然要比年初时多。

    因此，虽然表面看起来是投资者帮了德国的忙，但说到底，投资者自己得到的甜头更大。

    Would you pay someone to give them a loan? That's essentially what's happening in Germany right now -- German short-term bills turned negative earlier this week, meaning investors will not only forgo returns on German debt, they'll actually end up with less money when the bonds expire.

    It may sound preposterous, but that's not the only way of looking at it. Aside from finding a safe place to invest amid all the uncertainties attached with Europe's ongoing debt crisis, it's possible that investors can also make money on negative yields.

    In an auction Monday, Germany sold $4.96 billion of six-month bills with an average yield of negative 0.0122%. This is reportedly the first time yields turned negative at a German debt auction. However, as The Wall Street Journal points out, short-term U.S. Treasury yields spiraled to negative territory during the worst of the financial crisis several years ago. With all the uncertainties in the market, investors pulled cash out of risky investments and put them into safer securities – notably, short-term U.S. government debt.

    Investors typically expect to be repaid more than they lend. And indeed, Monday's auction in Germany signals they may be willing to settle for slightly less given fears about potentially big losses elsewhere. But it's possible for investors to gain more than expected.

    For one, the price for these bills could rise if yields, which move in the opposite direction, fall further should the crisis in Europe take a turn for the worse.

    And investors stand to see modestly bigger returns if deflation arises – a development some aren't ruling that out given expectations that Europe could slip into recession this year. When prices fall for a prolonged period, investors are better off stuffing cash under the mattress or a safe deposit box. Needless to say, corporations and money managers – discouraged from investing and lending given Europe's ongoing debt crisis – can't practically do that. So they flock to safety in bills and hope for better gains.

    University of Miami finance professor Brian Barrett sees it this way: Say the yield on a short-term government bond is negative 0.5%. The bill pays $1,000 when it matures at the end of the year. So the price of the bill would be $1,005.

    Now let's say copy paper at the start of the year is going for $10 a case. With $1,005, a company can buy 100.50 cases.

    But let's say the company holds off and stuffs its money under a mattress. And at the end of the year, prices have steadily declined. Inflation has dropped to negative 1%, which means a case of paper is now going for $9.90. Now the company pulls out its $1,005 and can buy 101.52 cases. That's better than at the beginning of the year.

    Obviously companies can't store money under a mattress. Executives need to put cash on hand at work, so they do what's essentially the equivalent. The investor, looking for a low-risk place to invest the company's cash, buys bonds at negative yields. By investing $1,005 in the bond, the investor ends up with $1,000 when it matures at the end of the year. With that, the company can buy 101.01 cases of copy paper. That's still more than it could buy at the beginning of the year.

    So while it may seem investors are doing Germany a favor, in the end, the bigger winners are likely the investors themselves.