西班牙脱困方案剑指用工制度或触怒工会

    失业率居发达世界之首、经济正在滑向二度衰退的西班牙即将启动一系列“里根式的”金融和劳工市场改革措施，改革成败将影响到整个欧元的未来。

    西班牙经济大臣路易斯•德金多斯在接受《财富》杂志（Fortune）专访时称，一揽子改革方案包括两个重大的变化，讲对西班牙严苛的劳动法规做出全面调整，以降低公司聘用和解雇员工的难度，同时根据自身需要支付薪酬，而不是一味迎合国家的规定。

    另一项重要举措是要求所有机构对问题房地产贷款进行大幅减记，达到减少西班牙问题银行数量的目的。

    作为前雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）驻西班牙的银行家，德金多斯估计，减记总额将达到500亿欧元（650亿美元）。改革的第二阶段将鼓励银行弱弱联合，合并的银行在进行问题房地产贷款减记过程中将获得一年的宽限期，并能从政府的银行救助基金获得贷款来完成合并。

    据一位要求不透露姓名的官员透露，由于这些银行将获得的注资是以贷款形式【即购买政府银行有序重组基金（Fund for the Orderly Restructuring of the Banks）优先股的方式】进行，西班牙政府可以声称，并未提供任何公共的银行救助资金。这或许是因为忌惮于耗费了纳税人7,000亿美元资金的美国不良资产救助计划（TARP）曾引起的强烈反对。

    德金多斯表示，西班牙政府可能请求欧盟（European Union）放宽“2012年西班牙预算赤字占GDP比例应从去年的8%降至4.4%”的要求。如果要达到这一标准，西班牙需要缩减预算510亿美元，势必让这个已处于衰退的国家陷入一团混乱。“我们必须同欧盟委员会详细分析利害关系，找到最理想的解决途径，从而决定赤字走向。”德金多斯称。“当然，目前还没有最终的定论。我们曾同意降至4.4%，但这可能需要作出调整。”

    西班牙政府上周公布，2011年第四季度西班牙经济萎缩0.3%。国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）预计，2012年该国经济将出现1.5%的负增长。这使得一些经济学家相信，如果西班牙一年内砍掉相当于GDP 4%的预算额，后果将极其严重。这差不多需要西班牙政府裁员数千人。

    事实上，西班牙新一届政府手上早已有另一桩窝火的事：去年的赤字/GDP比率本以为是6.6%。但2011年12月26日，新政府发现，虽然前任社会党政府此前对欧元区信誓旦旦，但它的赤字比率事实上已升至8%。因此，西班牙新首相马里亚诺•拉霍伊带领的政府采取了让国人（和保守派支持者）都瞠目结舌的举措，大幅上调税率，特别是针对富人的税率——虽然新一届政府曾明确许诺不会采取这样的做法。

    争议最大的改革将涉及西班牙这个欧洲最僵化的劳动力市场。西班牙政府本周得知，第四季度失业率创下23%的高点，更令人担忧的是25岁以下人口的失业率达到了45%。

    Faced with the highest unemployment in the developed world and an economy skidding into a double dip recession, Spain is about to embark on a series of Reagan-style financial and labor market reforms whose success could affect the future of the entire euro project.

    Economy Minister Luis de Guindos told Fortune in an interview that the reform package would include two sweeping changes to the country's stringent labor rules with the goal of making it easier for companies to hire and fire staff and pay them according to their needs rather than meeting national regulations.

    The other major initiative will be aimed at reducing the number of the country's problem banks by demanding that all institutions take hefty markdowns on their problem real estate loans.

    A former Lehman Brothers banker in Spain, de Guindos estimated the total write-downs at 50 billion euros ($65 billion). The second leg of the reform is to encourage mergers between weak banks by offering them an extra year longer until they have make the markdowns for problem real estate loans and giving them loans from the government's bank bailout fund to accomplish the merger.

    According to an official who asked not to be quoted by name, because the banks will receive capital injections as loans – in the form of purchases of preferred shares by the government's Fund for the Orderly Restructuring of the Banks – the government is maintaining that it is providing no public bank bailout funds. It's perhaps being mindful of the backlash caused by the TARP program in the U.S., which required $700 billion in taxpayer money.

    De Guindos indicated that the government may ask the European Union to relax its demands that the Spanish budget deficit be reduced from 8% of GDP last year to 4.4% this year. That would require budget cuts of $51 billion, which could wreak havoc in a nation in the midst of a recession. "This is something we'll have to analyze in detail with the European commission and we'll decide what is the ideal path and direction of the deficit," de Guindos said. "It is not closed. We have agreed to 4.4% but it may be adjusted."

    The government reported last week that the Spanish economy shrank by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011. The International Monetary Fund forecasts negative growth of 1.5% for the year in 2012. This has led some economists to predict dire consequences for the country if an amount equivalent to 4% of GDP is cut from the government budget in one year. It would largely require the government to lay off thousands of employees.

    The new government has already been forced to deal with one nasty surprise: last year's deficit was supposed to be 6.6% of GDP. But on Dec. 26, it found out that the previous socialist government had run up an 8% deficit despite promises to the contrary to European authorities. As a result, the government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy stunned the country – and its conservative backers – by sharply raising taxes, especially on the wealthy, something that it had explicitly promised not to do.

    The most contentious reforms will affect Spain's labor market, which is the most rigid in Europe. The government learned this week that unemployment hit a peak of 23% in the fourth quarter, and even more worrying, 45% for those under 25.