阿拉伯之春的新篇章

    如果想了解突尼斯、埃及和利比亚的革命爆发一年后，阿拉伯之春地区的经济健康状况，不妨听听阿布-伯克尔•马克罗夫怎么说。去年2月，埃及开罗一家建筑材料公司的创始人马克罗夫站在人潮涌动的解放广场，裹着一件厚厚的外套，彻夜参加抗议示威活动。埃及总统穆巴拉克逃离开罗几天前：“我照常给员工们付工资，让他们去加入革命的队列，”马克罗夫告诉我。“我们没法回头，”他说。“我们已经失去了一切。”

    或者说，这只是他当初的想法。现年33岁的马克罗夫在2010年用个人积蓄开始了创业之路，为埃及热火朝天的建筑行业提供建材。然而，在接下来的12个月里，他的六名员工除了等待客户，无事可干。但没有客户上门。在穆巴拉克倒台一年后，马克洛夫终于关闭了公司。他说：“我的现金全部花光了。”

    同样的情况也发生在其他很多人身上。如果不是国际货币基金组织（IMF）的32亿美元贷款，埃及这个区域性的强国可能也早已没有现钱了。投资者和旅游者们都在等待动荡的结束。类似的情况也发生在突尼斯，度假村空空荡荡地限制在灿烂的阳光下。而在利比亚，虽然1月份产油130万桶（已接近革命前的产量），但只要武装派别抢夺地盘的混战不停歇，大多数外国投资者仍会远离这个国家。

    动荡还只是其中一个问题。阿拉伯之春地区经过数十年僵化的、国家主导的经济体制，如今同样需要一场经济革命。整个地区的当务之急包括简化种种繁琐的手续以及全面改革数以千计荒谬的贸易条例。举个例子：一辆卡车从沙特开至叙利亚，回程必须空载。多少年来，跨国公司全盘接受了低效腐败的潜规则，把全部注意力都放在了这个25岁以下人口占比高达65%的地区（总人口3.50亿）所蕴藏的巨大商业潜力上，希望能够淘到真金。而且，老一套的体系看来反而更容易预料。“说起来悲哀，但有独裁者的地方，稳定的概率还会高点，”法国信贷风险公司Coface的地区平台经理里卡多•卡拉多里称。

    然而，这种日子已经到头了。随着很多公司在北非建立的种种关系毁于革命，当这些国家的经济之门重新打开，它们将面临更严峻的竞争，包括来自当地投资者的竞争，而在过去，这些投资者根本无法触及高毛利的合同。如今在突尼斯和埃及占据主导地位的伊斯兰党派已声称将对商界友好，计划重金投资建设新的基础设施和房地产。但投资者们需要考虑的不光光是利润。“大公司需要一套新的说辞，”牛津大学伊斯兰研究中心（Oxford's Center for Islamic Studies）的阿迪尔•马利克表示。“他们将必须讨论就业和发展小企业的问题。”

    在开罗，马克罗夫已在筹备一家新的房地产公司，准备迎接蜂拥而入的投资者。与此同时，他还打算开设一家咨询办事处——不是在埃及，而是在距离阿拉伯之春数千英里的法国戛纳。

    If you want to gauge the Arab Spring's economic health one year after revolutions exploded in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, meet Abu-Bakr Makhlouf. Last February, Makhlouf, founder of a construction supply company in Cairo, stood in a packed Tahrir Square, bundled in a heavy coat for the nightlong protests. "I paid my staff and told them to go join the revolution," he told me, days before President Mubarak fled the capital. "There is no turning back," he said. "We have nothing else to lose."

    Or so he thought. Makhlouf, 33, had plowed his savings into his startup in 2010 and begun supplying materials to Egypt's booming construction industry. Then, over the next 12 months, his six employees sat idle, waiting for customers. None came. On the anniversary of Mubarak's downfall, Makhlouf finally closed shop. "I ran out of cash," he said.

    The same can be said for countless others. Egypt, the region's powerhouse, might have run out of cash itself without a $3.2 billion IMF loan. Investors and tourists are waiting out the upheaval. Likewise in Tunisia, where resorts have sat empty in the dazzling sunlight. And although Libya pumped 1.3 million barrels of oil in January -- close to its pre-revolution output -- most foreign investors will stay away as long as militia groups fight lethal turf battles.

    Turmoil is just one problem. After decades of fossilized, state-dominated economies, the Arab Spring now needs an economic revolution. Urgent tasks include streamlining confounding red tape and overhauling thousands of nonsensical trade rules across the region. One example: A truck traveling from Saudi Arabia to Syria is obligated to return empty. For years, multinationals simply accepted the unproductive and hugely corrupt business practices, focusing on the rich potential of a region in which 60% of the 350 million people are under 25. Besides, the system seemed predictable. "It's sad to say, but everywhere you have dictators, you have more chance for stability," says Riccardo Carradori, regional platform manager for the French credit-risk company Coface.

    No longer. With their relationships in North Africa gone, corporations will face stiffer competition once economies open, including from local investors previously shut out of lucrative contracts. The Islamic parties now dominating Tunisia and Egypt have proclaimed business-friendly goals, with plans to invest heavily in new infrastructure and housing. Yet investors will need to think beyond profits. "Big businesses need a new rhetoric," says Adeel Malik of Oxford's Center for Islamic Studies. "They will have to talk about jobs and developing small enterprises."

    In Cairo, Makhlouf is already plotting a new real estate venture in readiness for an influx of investors. Meanwhile, he is opening a consulting office -- not in Egypt but thousands of miles from the Arab Spring, in Ghana.