希腊第三轮紧急援助可能无法避免

    法国总统尼古拉•萨科齐上周五宣布，随着一项巨额债务重组计划的成功实施，旷日持久的希腊债务“问题”终于“得到了解决”。不过，虽然这项重组计划比许多人此前预期的更为成功，但即使触发了信贷违约掉期合约（CDS），希腊和欧元区其他成员国的债务危机仍然远远没有结束。只有拿出一个更长期、更强有力的解决方案，这场漫长的债务危机才可以说真正画上了句号。

    这项最终在周五进入紧要关头的债务互换计划可以作为葡萄牙和爱尔兰等欧元区边缘成员国未来实行债务重组的样板。该计划酝酿了数月有余。全球各地的债权人、政客、银行和官僚不厌其烦地就这一问题展开辩论，直至相关方达成了一项协议，使希腊得以避免耻辱性的债务违约（一旦出现这种局面，欧元的稳定势必危若累卵）。

    其中一个关键的决策在于，迫使希腊的私人债券持有者为国家的复苏做出巨大牺牲。就总体而论，私人债券持有者最终接受的新债券的价值要比原有债券减少73%，进而有效地从该国庞大的债务负担中抹去了1,000亿欧元。欧盟（EU）和国际货币基金组织（IMF）新给予希腊价值1,300亿欧元（约合1,700亿美元）的资金，以减轻该国未来清偿债务的负担，同时维持希腊的正常运转。

    但并非所有人都支持这项决定。欧盟当局表示，债务互换计划需要得到95%的希腊债券持有者的同意，但最终仅有大约83%的希腊债权人自愿认同这项计划。为了把赞同者的比例提升至95%，希腊颁布了集体行动条款（CAC），迫使“不听话”的债券持有者接受大多数人的决定——认同这项互换计划。

    集体行动条款的启动，帮助希腊财政部获得了1,300亿欧元的资金，但它也使得债务互换从一种自愿的交易行为演变为一次“信贷事件”。上周五晚些时候，一个由银行和资产管理公司组成的委员会裁定，鉴于希腊颁布集体行动条款，该国事实上已正式拖欠债务，进而触发了银行和对冲基金当初为保护自身免受此类事件影响而购买的CDS合约。

赢家和输家（以及更大的输家）

    许多投资者认为，触发CDS合约将导致金融市场彻底地陷入动荡。但幸运的是，针对希腊债务的未偿付CDS合约的名义价值仅有35亿欧元，只占希腊未偿债务总额的很小一部分。

    CDS合约由银行签发，然后如烫手的山芋一般，在对冲基金、资产管理公司和其他银行之间推来推去。因此，在任何既定时刻，外人很难确切知晓谁手头正持有什么合约。但在CDS合约方面，业界已经出现了一些关于赢家和输家的传言。目前最大的输家似乎是奥地利的KA Finanz银行。这家银行在上周五称，该行对希腊债务CDS合约的风险敞口或许高达10亿欧元。与此同时，欧洲银行业管理局（European Banking Authority）提供的数据显示，意大利最大的银行、联合信贷银行（UniCredit）可能被套2.4亿欧元，而德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）和法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）可能分别需支付7,700万欧元和7,400万欧元的赔付。

    另一方面，由于一些银行当初为防范债务违约，购买了保护措施，它们现在或许成为了CDS合约触发的受益者。英国的汇丰银行（HSBC）有望获得近2亿欧元的赔付，而同属英国的苏格兰皇家银行（RBS）则可以斩获1.74亿欧元。一些对冲基金预计将成为大的受益者，但目前还不清楚谁是这个节点上最大的赢家。

    French President Nicholas Sarkozy declared Friday that the long-running Greek debt "problem" had finally been "solved," following the successful implementation of a massive debt restructuring in the country. But while the restructuring was more successful than many had anticipated, even with the triggering of credit default swaps, Greece's debt woes, as well as those of the rest of the eurozone, are far from over. A longer-term and more robust solution will be needed before the "Mission Accomplished" banner can truly be rolled out on this long-running debt crisis.

    The debt exchange that finally came to a head on Friday could serve as a template for future restructurings involving other peripheral eurozone members, like Portugal and Ireland. It was months in the making. Creditors, politicians, banks and bureaucrats from around the globe debated the issue ad nauseam until an agreement was put in place that would allow Greece to avert a humiliating hard debt default that would have jeopardized the stability of the euro.

    The key decision was the one made to force Greece's private bondholders to take a major hit to help finance the nation's recovery. All-in-all, the private bondholders ended up receiving new bonds worth 73% less than what they had before, effectively wiping out 100 billion euros off the nation's burgeoning debt load. Greece received 130 billion euros ($170 billion) in fresh capital from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to help fund their future debt payments, which will also serve to keep the lights on at the Acropolis.

    Not everyone was on board, however. European authorities said that 95% of the Greek bondholders would need to agree to the debt swap, but only around 83% of Greece's creditors ended up voluntarily going along with the swap. To get to the 95%, Greece enacted collective action clauses, or CACs, which forced the errant bondholders to accept the decision of the majority and therefore agree to the swap.

    Triggering the CACs helped secure the 130 billion euros for the Greek Treasury, but it also turned the debt swap from a voluntary exchange to a "credit event." Later on Friday, a council of banks and asset managers ruled that since Greece had enacted the CACs, it had officially defaulted on its debts, triggering credit default swaps that banks and hedge funds had acquired to protect themselves from such an event.

Winners and losers (and bigger losers)

    Many investors believed that the triggering of CDS would cause total pandemonium in the markets, but, luckily, the notional value of the swaps outstanding against Greek debt amounted to just 3.5 billion euros, a small fraction of the total value of Greek debt outstanding.

    CDS contracts are written by banks and passed amongst hedge funds, asset managers and other banks like hot potatoes, so it's tough to know exactly who is holding what at any given moment. But there is already some talk of winners and losers on the CDS front. The big loser at this point seems to be KA Finanz, the Austrian bank. It said on Friday that it could have a 1 billion euro exposure to Greek CDS. Meanwhile, data from the European Banking Authority suggests that UniCredit, the large Italian bank, could be on the hook for 240 million euros, while Deutsche Bank (DB) and BNP Paribas, might need to pay out 77 million and 74 million euros, respectively.

    On the flip side, there are a few banks that could benefit from the CDS triggers as they bought protection in case of a default. HSBC, the British bank, may have racked up nearly 200 million euros, while RBS, another British bank, and minted 174 million euros. A number of hedge funds are expected to be big beneficiaries, but it is still unclear who the big winners are at this point.