美联储缘何谨小慎微？

    尽管最近一系列经济数据都较为漂亮，美联储（the Federal Reserve）周二发出的信号却显示，它尚未完全相信这些好消息。决策层认识到就业市场复苏速度快于预期，家庭和企业的消费也在增长。官员们虽然颇有些欣欣然，却仍然避免显得太过兴高采烈。

    美联储的谨慎态度值得关注。很大程度上，正是此种态度促使它决定在2014年前一直短期存款利率维持在超低水平。这项政策让储蓄者和投资者苦不堪言，因为他们持有的现金几乎毫无回报率可言。共和党人更谈不上欢欣鼓舞，他们声称廉价货币终将引发通胀，使脆弱的经济受到更大的冲击。

    美联储援引大量可能导致经济复苏戛然而止的风险来为其政策辩护。首先，油价上涨可能会抑制消费者支出；房地产市场仍未走出困境，总是拖累家庭财富；失业率可能掉头上涨；欧洲的债务危机也可能继续持续下去。

    我不想对这些风险轻描淡写，但是值得注意的是，不久之前美联储曾显得更加乐观，而那时同样存在这些风险。因此美联储的谨慎态度可能意味着它正致力于重建信用。

    毕竟，美联储主席本•伯南克过去曾严重错判形势，弄得面上无光。差不多是去年同一时间，失业率降到了两年来的最低水平。然而，2011年4月，美联储却预测2011年经济增长率将达3.1-3.3%，2012年更将加速至4.2%，甚至比坊间的预测更为乐观一些。每月例行调查分析人士的蓝筹经济（Blue Chip Economics）公司预测，2011和2012年的平均经济增长预期为2.9%和3.1%。

    雪城大学（Syracuse University）经济学教授唐•达特科斯基指出：“当时，那是我们很长一段时间以来听到的最大的好消息，因此而乐观几乎是自然而然的事情。”

    当时太过乐观的不仅仅是美联储，然而到了2011年夏季，华尔街投行也开始纷纷调低经济增长预测，因为日本海啸引发的连锁反应以及天然气价格上涨拖累了美国经济。

    “我们已经多次在这轮经济复苏看到虚幻的黎明，”德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）机构资产管理业务DB Advisors首席经济学家乔什•费曼称。他回忆道，德银去年年中也调低了经济增长预期。

    美联储发布的最新报告将2012年的预期国内生产总值（GDP）增长率下调至2.2-2.7%，符合大多数民间分析人士的预测——去年犯了太过乐观的错误之后，后者也开始谨慎有加。不过，有些知名人士更愿意相信最新发布的强劲经济数据，他们预期的增长率更高。

    穆迪分析（Moody's Analytics）预测经济增长率将达到3%，美国有线电视新闻网财经频道（CNNmoney）专栏作家保罗•拉莫尼卡最近还指出，世界最大的工程与矿业设备制造商卡特彼勒同样预测经济增长率至少将达到3%。

    华尔街和媒体或许已经在暗示美联储对好消息的反应速度太慢，但它仍然没有根本改变立场。目前，接近于零的低利率仍将维持两年，美联储官员也没有宣布任何计划，显示近期会发起新一轮债券购买行动，借助这种颇具争议的政策来刺激市场。

    这一次，如果经济没有大幅改善，美联储恐怕不敢贸然表态。

    译者：小宇

    Despite the recent spate of positive economic data, the Federal Reserve on Tuesday signaled it's not totally buying the good news. Policymakers acknowledged that the job market improved more than expected and that households and businesses were spending more. But while officials sounded a tiny bit more upbeat, they held back from getting too cheery.

    The Fed's sense of caution is something to watch. It's largely what's keeping short-term interest rates ultra-low until 2014 – a policy that's irked savers and investors who've seen almost no return on their cash. Republicans, in particular, aren't thrilled about it either. They say cheap money could eventually stoke inflation and make the fragile economy worse off.

    The Fed justifies this by citing the plethora of risks that could derail the recovery. For one, higher oil prices that threaten to crimp consumer spending. There's also a troubled housing market that has continued to weigh down household wealth, a high unemployment rate, and Europe's ongoing debt crisis.

    Not to minimize these risks, but it's worth noting that they were lingering back when the central bank seemed more optimistic not so long ago. So the Fed's caution may signal the central bank's focus on strengthening its credibility.

    After all, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke got it embarrassingly wrong before. It was around this time last year when the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in two years. In April 2011, the Fed projected the economy would grow between 3.1% and 3.3% in 2011 and between 3.5% and 4.2% in 2012 – a forecast that was slightly more optimistic than private forecasters. According to Blue Chip Economics, which surveys forecasters monthly, the firm on average projected growth of 2.9% in 2011 and 3.1% in 2012.

    "It was the best news we had received in a long time," says Don Dutkowsky, economics professor at Syracuse University. "It was almost natural to be optimistic."

    But it wasn't just the Fed who got too bullish. By summer of 2011, Wall Street firms were revising its GDP forecasts lower as the ripple effects of Japan's tsunami and higher gas prices weighed on America's economy.

    "We've seen a few false dawns with this recovery," said Josh Feinman, chief economist for Deutsche Bank's (DB) DB Advisors, the firm's institutional asset management business. He recalls the bank lowering its forecasts mid year last year.

    In its latest forecast, the Fed in January lowered its expectations for GDP growth to a rate of 2.2% to 2.7% for 2012. This falls within the range of most private forecasters who have also taken caution after being overly bullish last year. However, it's still lower than some notables who've been more willing to embrace the recent strong economic data.

    Moody's Analytics expects the economy to grow 3%. And as CNNmoney's Paul La Monica pointed out recently, Caterpillar (CAT), the world's largest construction and mining-equipment maker, also expects the economy to grow at a rate of at least 3%.

    Wall Street and the media might have hinted that the Fed may be slowly coming around to the goods news, but the central bank hasn't fundamentally changed its stance. For now, interest rates will be close to zero for the next two years. And officials haven't announced any immediate plans to launch another controversial round of bond purchases to help stimulate the markets.

    This time, the economy will have to improve considerably more before it fools the Fed again.