油价高企，沙特不是救世主

    沙特阿拉伯无法帮助西方国家摆脱日益攀升的石油和汽油价格，只有华尔街才能办到。

    沙特于上周早些时候宣布，它已经扩大原油生产，旨在应对伊朗可能关闭石油通道带来的供应问题。虽然沙特拥有充足的石油储备，但是沙特仍然无法凭一己之力应对最新一轮的油价上涨。沙特的石油产量正在接近产能极限，至于它能否填补伊朗的空白，目前还不得而知。此外，即使沙特可以做到这一点，在华尔街投机者们仍然看涨原油和汽油期货产品的大背景下，沙特的努力依然显得回天乏术。

    美国普通汽油平均价格为3.86美元/加仑，已经创下历史同期最高水平，与去年同期相比，上涨幅度达到了9%。普通汽油价格上涨主要与原油价格相关，而原油价格也因伊朗核项目紧张局势引发的供应问题而水涨船高。美国和欧洲的严厉制裁触及了伊朗的要害，引发了一场唇枪舌战，也使得投资者备感紧张。

    虽然对伊朗的口头攻击不绝于耳，但是针对伊朗的严厉制裁并未给全球石油供应造成重大影响。石油输出国组织（OPEC）估计，2月份伊朗日产油量为342.4万桶，与2011年平均产能相比，下降了大约5.4%。但利比亚和沙特等其他OPEC成员国原油产量增加，极大地弥补了伊朗产能的小幅下降。与此同时，美国市场的石油供应依然非常充足。目前，商品原油储备充足，可以满足57.5天的需求。这一数据比去年同期相比增加了4天，而与五年期平均数据相比也增加了6.6天。

    虽然出现这种大规模供应中断的可能性微乎其微，但是，正是这种潜在的可能性使石油价格出现上涨。上周，沙特石油部长在接受采访时表示，沙特时刻准备好“填补理论或现实中的原油供应缺口。”本周，沙特内阁发表官方声明，指出“仅”沙特一个国家就可以为市场供应充足的石油，使油价回归至消费者所谓的“正常”水平。消息一出，美国基准原油期货价格下跌了2美元，使本周二收盘价下降到了106.07美元。

    虽然这一消息令人欣慰，但却没有什么实际意义。沙特已经打破OPEC设置的产能限额（OPEC大多数成员国也是如此），每天产量达到了990万桶。这一数据令人震惊，即将逼近31年来的最高产能纪录。沙特的生产设备正在开足马力，满负荷运转，投入使用的钻探设备数量相比去年同期出现了大幅上涨。另外，沙特甚至计划启动退役石油产区的开采工作，开采任何可能存在的石油。

    官方数据显示，沙特的满负荷产能是1,250万桶/天，比现有产能高出250万桶/天。而这也恰巧是伊朗的产能限额，这也促使我们相信，沙特非常有可能弥补伊朗减少的任何产能。但是，许多分析人士认为，考虑到近来接近疯狂的生产率和所有在用新型钻井设备的数量，沙特将在数月之内达到产能上限。即使果真如此，这种做法也是不可持续的，因为生产率提高到这样的水平将给油田带来破坏。

    Saudi Arabia can't save the West from rising oil and gasoline prices -- only Wall Street can.

    The Kingdom announced earlier this week that it was increasing crude production in a bid to shake off supply concerns involving a potential shut off of Iranian oil supplies. While Saudi Arabia does have a massive reserve base, it can't fight this latest run-up in prices on its own. It is already running close to its production limit and it's unclear it can bring enough supply online to fill an Iranian void. Furthermore, even if Saudi Arabia could somehow fill a hypothetical supply gap, it is unlikely it would really make much of a difference in a market where speculators on Wall Street continue to hold large bullish positions in crude and gasoline futures.

    The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. is averaging around $3.86 a gallon, which is a record high for this time of year and 9% above where it was during the same time last year. Much of the increase can be traced back to crude prices, which have moved up considerably amid supply concerns stemming from tensions over Iran's nuclear program. Tighter sanctions by the U.S. and Europe have hit a nerve in Tehran, provoking a war of words that have made investors nervous.

    Despite the verbal assaults, there has been little impact on global oil supply as a result of the tougher sanctions on Iran. OPEC estimates Iran produced 3.424 million barrels of oil a day in February, which is off around 5.4% from the 2011 average. Increased crude production from the rest of OPEC, namely Libya and Saudi Arabia, more than made up for this small decline in output. Meanwhile, the U.S. market continues to be well supplied. There is currently enough oil in commercial oil storage tanks to cover 57.5 days of demand, which is 4 days more than a year ago and 6.6 days more than the five-year average.

    But it is the potential for a massive supply disruption that is adding a special premium to oil prices, even though such a possibility is remote. Saudi Arabia's oil minister told reporters last week that the Kingdom stands ready to "make good any shortfalls – perceived or real – in crude oil supply." This week, the Kingdom's cabinet released an official statement saying that it "alone" would supply enough oil to the markets to return prices back to what it deems to be a "fair" level for consumers. U.S. benchmark crude futures shed about $2 after the news, to end Tuesday at $106.07.

    But while the news is comforting, it really has little substance. Saudi Arabia is already breaking its own OPEC-imposed production quota limit (as are most other OPEC members) and producing an astounding 9.9 million barrels a day, putting it close to a 31-year production high. The Kingdom's production engine is firing on all cylinders with the number of drilling rigs in operation, up significantly from the same time last year. It is even going to start drilling in retired oil patches to squeeze out any extra oil that might still be underground.

    Officially, Saudi Arabia's full production capacity is around 12.5 million barrels a day, which is 2.5 million barrels a day above its current production level. It also just happens to be Iran's production limit, which could lead one to believe that the Saudis could possibly make up for any lost Iranian production. But given the frenzied production rates of late and all the new drilling rigs in operation, many analysts believe that it would take several months to push production up to its ceiling. And even if it could somehow hit that level it may not be sustainable as it would mean raising production to levels that could actually damage the fields.