债券之王敲响警钟，鼓吹投资者大逃亡

    显然，管理着全球最大共同基金Pimco Total Return的比尔•格罗斯不仅有挑投资产品的眼光，也有挑电影的眼光。

    格罗斯素以离奇古怪的致投资者信而著称。他在信中曾给出过爱的建议（特别是针对欧洲），也谈过为什么讨厌自动冲水马桶。本月的致投资者信于周二发布，这次给出的却是电影建议。格罗斯推荐的大银幕之作是《大逃亡》（The Great Escape）。

    这部1963年上映的电影讲的是二战期间，囚禁在德国战俘营内的一队美国士兵在史蒂夫•迈奎因扮演的男主角带领下如何逃离的故事。格罗斯称，这部电影让他联想到了当今很多投资者的感受。天哪。只是这次扮演纳粹角色的是债务。如果不挖一条大地道，你都不知道能不能撑到退休。听起来可不太妙。

    基本上格罗斯的观点是未来数年，市场以及投资者将陷入一个低回报的世界，不得脱身。因为几十年来提振市场的所有因素即将逆转，包括债务上升，低通胀，低利率等。随着这一切徐徐展开，特别是杠杆率下降，格罗斯预计市场将遭遇强劲的逆风。至少根据我这15年来对市场的观察，增长一直是决定一只股票价值的最重要因素之一。格罗斯认为，未来这种联系将弱化，因为增长将变得不再那么可预测，增速将放缓，而利率和通胀将上升，导致未来现金流的现值下降（可以问问你的MBA朋友们，这些意味着什么）。格罗斯表示，鉴于未来可能发生的情况，公司可获得的溢价将减少，他预计目前盈利及派息的公司将具有更高的估值，这也会成为一大变化。

    那么，格罗斯的建议是什么呢？总体而言，格罗斯认为债券优于股票，这一点完全在意料之中。即便他说债券平均回报率可能只有4%。如果打算买股票，格罗斯建议远离像苹果公司（Apple）这样所谓的成长型股，买入埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）等持续派息的股票。也就是说，安全第一。此外，格罗斯预计中国、巴西等新兴经济体的公司股票走势将优于欧美国家的股票。最后，他建议在投资组合中加入大宗商品，帮助抵御通胀。

    格罗斯此番市场前景预测存在的问题是，他描述的“大逃亡”情形听起来与他所谓的“新常态”并无太大区别。三年前，他创造了这个新词，来描述当时的市场走向。但在经过2008年底和2009年初的市场调整后，投资股市并没有给我们坐牢之感。去年市场震荡。但总体而言，本轮市场反弹表现不错，好于整体经济的复苏情况。而且，今年以来股市继续延续了显著回升的态势。

    Apparently, Bill Gross picks movies as well as investments.

    Bond investor Gross, who runs the world's largest mutual fund Pimco Total Return (PTTRX), is known for his quirky letters to investors. In the past he has dispensed love advice (specifically for Europe) and written about why he hates automatic flush toilets. His letter this month, which came out on Tuesday, instead offers movie advice. Gross' big screen pick is The Great Escape.

    The movie came out in 1963, is about World War II and stars Steve McQueen as the head of a group of American soldiers trapped in a German POW camp. Gross says the movie reminds him a lot of what it feels like to be an investor today. Ouch. Except it's debt that is playing the role of the Nazis. And if you don't dig a really big tunnel it's not clear you will ever afford to retire. Not encouraging stuff.

    Basically, Gross' thesis is that the market, and investors, will be trapped in a low-return world for the next few years. That's because all the things that have been boosting the market for the past few decades - rising debt, low inflation, low-interest rates - are about to reverse. And as all that unwinds, particularly the leverage, Gross sees some pretty strong headwinds for the market. Growth, at least in the 15 years that I have been watching the market, has always been one of the biggest factors in determining what a stock is worth. Less so, in the future Gross says. Because growth is going to be less predictable, and slower, and interest rates and inflation will be higher, lowering the present value of those future dollars (ask your MBA friends what that means), Gross says companies will get less of a premium for what might happen in the future. Instead he thinks companies that generate earnings now, and pay dividends now will get higher valuations, which again would be a big shift.

    So what does Gross suggest you do? Generally, Gross, unsurprisingly, likes bonds over stocks. Even though he says bonds on average may only produce 4% returns. But if you are going to buy stocks, Gross says stay away from so-called growth stocks, like say Apple (AAPL), and instead buy consistent dividend paying stocks, like Exxon Mobil (XOM). So go for safety. And he says the shares of companies located in nations with emerging economies like China and Brazil should do better than American or European stocks. Lastly, Gross recommends adding commodities to your portfolio that can protect you from inflation.

    The problem with Gross' prediction of where the market is headed is his "Great Escape" scenario doesn't sound all that different from his so-called "new normal," a phrase Gross helped coin three years to describe where the market was headed at the time. And yet, once we got past the correction of late 2008 and early 2009, being invested in the stock market has felt nothing like being in jail. Last year, was a rocky ride. But in general the market has done pretty well in this recovery, better than the economy in general. And stocks are up pretty significantly again this year.