欧美经济棋局或将进入终盘

    在象棋对弈中，所谓“终盘”就是棋局进入尾声，棋盘上的棋子数量已相对较少之。很多象棋分析人士对于究竟何时开始才算进入终盘意见并不统一，但他们都认同一点，进入终盘后，对弈策略与中局时大相径庭。事实上，全球顶尖的象棋棋手总是能在终盘时拿出优异的表现，并采用前后一贯的策略。

    本周二股市的表现便让一些投资者怀疑全球经济增长是否已经、或者即将进入终盘阶段。美国股市的强势反弹并不令人意外，明显带有近期全球股市信心两极摇摆的特征。前一天，坏消息占上风，后一天，好消息又主导全局。全球经济增速放缓已进入终盘，然后又发现其实还没有。

    与此同时，周二，西班牙债务问题显现更多终盘迹象。西班牙今年仍然会是欧债危机的承压点。西班牙宣布，自去年12月份起，国内银行不良贷款加速增加，现在总计已经达到1,438.2亿欧元，为18年来的高点。房地产价格继续向长期均值靠拢可能会带来一个巨大的风险,即不良贷款很可能还会继续大幅加速。

    西班牙的债务问题每况愈下，关键是因为德国正式声称，西班牙大到救不了。意大利也是如此。救不了意大利，也救不了西班牙，这种局面必定是越来越让人揪心的欧债危机的终局。但公平地说，西班牙10年期债券的收益率牢牢保持在6%之下，目前为5.78%，这是件好事，但西班牙IBEX指数周三上午跌了3.2%。周四还会进行更长期西班牙债券的拍卖，如同其他任何人为控制的市场一样，这些债券的拍卖最终依然会取得成功。

    本周欧洲的政坛大事是周末法国大选将启动第一轮投票。由于主要候选人需要取得50%的选票才能胜出，鉴于眼下存在多个主要候选人同时竞争，可能还会有第二轮投票。当前，法国调查机构CSA的民调显示，预计在第一轮投票中奥朗德将以29%比24%领先萨科齐，比几天前的数字还有一定提高；预计在第二轮投票中，奥朗德将以58%对42%的压倒性优势取胜。

    法国大选非常重要，因为：其一，奥朗德是社会党，其二，奥朗德是社会主义者，其三，奥朗德已经声明，如果获选，他将重新协商欧盟预算协议，不会接受强制要求成员国压缩开支的做法。欧元区这个伟大的货币联盟即将面临更多的政治挑战。

    而在美国，当前股市的主题是财报季。银行业分析人士周二写到金融业时称：

    “大约三分之一的金融公司已经发布了业绩报告。8家大中型公司中有7家净利润超预期。营收趋势进一步分化，超过三分之一的公司超出预期，三分之一与预期一致，不到三分之一的公司未能达到预期。但由于债务价值调整（Debt Value Adjustment），这些数据存在一定的误导性。根据债务价值调整，大银行的营收受到一项会计规则的不利影响，这项规则要求它们在信用违约掉期（CDS）下跌时确认负营收。第一季度CDS显著下降，冲击所有对资本市场敏感的大公司，即：花旗（Citi）、摩根大通（JP Morgan）、美国银行（Bank of America）、高盛（Goldman Sachs）和摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）。”

    In chess, the end game is the point at which there are a relatively limited number of pieces on the board. Many chess analysts disagree as to when exactly the end game begins, but they all agree that when the end game begins, strategy is much different than the middle game. In fact, over time the world's best chess players have always excelled at the end game and utilized a consistent strategy.

    Yesterday was one of those stock market days that certainly made a few investors wonder whether the global economic growth end game is actually here yet, or close. The snap back in U.S. equities didn't necessarily surprise us but obviously characterized the almost bi-polar sentiment that currently exists in global equities. One day bad news matters, the next day good news matters more. The global economic growth slowing end game is here, then it isn't.

    Meanwhile in Spain over night we did get more evidence of the debt end game. The nation that will continue to be the pressure point in European sovereign debt issues this year, reported that non-performing bank loans accelerated from December and now total €143.82B, which is an 18-year high. The big risk is that this level of non-performing loans accelerates dramatically as property prices continue to revert to the mean.

    The key issue with Spain accelerating to the downside from a debt perspective is that Germany is basically on record saying that Spain is too big to save. And so is Italy. Not being able to save either Italy or Spain is certainly a European sovereign debt end game that is increasingly concerning. To be fair, though, Spanish 10-year yields are now solidly below the 6% line at 5.78%, which is a positive, but the IBEX this morning is down -3.2%. Tomorrow we get the longer term Spanish bond auctions and they, too, will likely be as successful as any artificially controlled market.

    The major political catalyst this week in Europe is the French elections, with the first round this weekend. Since a major candidate has to garner 50% to win, it is likely there is a second round given there are major candidates competing. Currently, the polls from CSA have Hollande leading Sarkozy 29% to 24% in Round 1. This is an improvement from being tied a few days ago. The polls then show Hollande mercy-crushing Sarkozy in Round 2, by a margin of 58% to 42%.

    The French election is critical because: A) Hollande is a Socialist, B) Hollande is a Socialist, and C) Hollande has stated that if elected he will renegotiate the EU budget compact and that he will not accept austerity as rule for countries. Things are about to get a lot more challenging politically in the great monetary union that is the Eurozone.

    In the U.S. we are fully in the midst of earnings season. Our banking analyst wrote this yesterday as it related to the financial sector:

    "Roughly one third of financial companies have reported earnings so far. Seven of the eight large- or mid-cap companies have beaten estimates on the bottom line. Revenue trends have been more mixed, with just over 1/3 beating estimates, 1/3 in-line and just under 1/3 missing. However, this is a bit misleading because of Debt Value Adjustment. With DVA, the big banks' revenue lines are adversely affected by an accounting convention that requires them to recognize negative revenues when their credit default swaps tighten. First quarter saw sizeable CDS tightening, so the headwind was significant for all the large-cap capital markets sensitive names: C, JPM, BAC, GS, MS."