“巴菲特溢价”严重缩水

    对于伯克希尔-哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）而言，沃伦•巴菲特的价值已大不如前。

    这位传奇的首席执行官宣布罹患早期前列腺癌之后的一天，伯克希尔的股价于周三小幅下跌约1%。巴菲特宣称，他的病情“远未危及生命”，只是需要放慢节奏。（从7月中旬开始需要接受为期两个月的放射性治疗，届时，他将无法旅行。）当然，股价仅仅只是出现了小幅下跌，部分原因在于几乎没人认为巴菲特会很快离开伯克希尔。但股价反应不强烈，也引发了这样一个问题：目前投资者怎么看待这位81岁高龄的首席执行官对于伯克希尔和其股价的价值？答案或许是大不如前。

    十年前，投资者们常常谈到巴菲特溢价。如今这种溢价看来已差不多消失殆尽。伯克希尔当前股价对应的市净率仅1.2倍，接近1998年时的一半。

    伯克希尔股票估值的下降某种程度上与巴菲特的年龄有关。但给这只股票带来压力的还有公司接班人的问题：巴菲特之后，谁将执掌伯克希尔仍不明朗。最多也就是巴菲特曾经说过的，可能会把他的工作分成4、5个职位。伯克希尔早已推出托德•康布斯和泰德•韦斯切勒这两位投资经理，并且声称，可能会在这两人之外再增加一名投资经理。他们将负责打理伯克希尔的投资业务，但目前尚不清楚伯克希尔的投资组合将如何划分。

    巴菲特也曾说过，他计划另外任命一名接班人，负责管理美国铁路运营商Burlington Northern以及多年来伯克希尔收购的其他一大批公司，包括冰激凌连锁店冰雪皇后（Dairy Queen）、涂料公司本杰明摩尔（Benjamin Moore）等等。巴菲特称，他已经选定了这名接班人，伯克希尔董事会对这个人也知根知底。据信巴菲特心中的人选可能是伯克希尔下属某家公司的管理者。这些管理者中可能性最大的是现年59岁的阿吉特•简，他已掌管伯克希尔最大的保险业务长达25年。但如果巴菲特想选年轻一些的接班人，那么很可能是现年48岁的格雷格•阿贝尔，他掌管着伯克希尔旗下的中美能源（MidAmerican Energy），是伯克希尔最年轻的高管之一。但Burlington Northern的负责人、现年50岁的麦特•罗斯如果入选，可能也合情合理，因为它体现了伯克希尔从保险业务的转型。但奇怪的是，巴菲特称，他选定的这个人本人并不知情。因此，也可能这个人会在巴菲特宣布消息之前离开伯克希尔，甚至可能根本不愿意接受这份工作。

    除此之外，巴菲特表示，他希望让他的儿子霍华德担任伯克希尔董事长，目前董事长一职仍由沃伦•巴菲特担任。霍华德不会在伯克希尔承担日常职务。这些人将如何共事？巴菲特还没有说明。他们能合得来吗？天知道。

    但巴菲特溢价的消失至少部分与伯克希尔的一些变化有关。过去，伯克希尔的价值很大程度上与保险公司产生的现金以及巴菲特如何使用这些现金进行投资联系在一起。如今，伯克希尔赚的钱很多都来自于其经营的公司。巴菲特仍在用这些钱进行投资，但他对部分投资盈利的依赖已经不如从前。

    Warren Buffett, it appears, is worth less than he used to be.

    Shares of Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) fell slightly, down about 1%, on Wednesday, a day after the company's legendary CEO announced he has Stage 1 prostate cancer. Buffett said his condition is "not remotely life-threatening" and would barely slow him down. (He won't be able to travel, while getting radiation treatment, for two months starting in mid-July.) Surely, part of the small drop has to do with the fact that few think Buffett is going anywhere soon. Nonetheless, the muted reaction of Berkshire's shares raise the question of just what investors think the 81-year-old CEO is worth to the company and its shares. The answer might be a lot less than they used to.

    A decade or so ago, investors used to talk about the Buffett premium. That appears to have mostly eroded. Berkshire's shares trade for 1.2 times the book value of the company. That's nearly half the 2.3 price-to-book value they fetched back in 1998.

    Part of Berkshire's drop in value certainly has to do with Buffett's age. But also weighing on the stock is the fact that it's not clear who would run Berkshire when Buffett leaves. The best guess from what Buffett has said in the past is that he envisions that his job would be split into four, possible five, positions. Berkshire has already brought on investment managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. And the company has said it might add another manager to the mix. That would take care of the investing side, though it's not clear how the portfolio would be divided.

    Buffett has also said that he plans to name another successor who will manage Burlington Northern and the company's many other acquisitions it has made over the years, which includes ice cream chain Dairy Queen, paint company Benjamin Moore and many others. Buffett says he has picked the successor and it's someone who Berkshire's board of directors knows very well. It's assumed that the person Buffett has in mind is someone who already runs a company owned by Berkshire. Of those, the most likely candidate is probably Ajit Jain, 59, who has run Berkshire's largest insurance division for 25 years. But if Buffett is going for youth he might go for Greg Abel, 48, who runs Berkshire's MidAmerican Energy and is one of Berkshire's youngest top executives. But Matt Rose, 50, who is the head of Burlington Northern, might make the most sense, reflecting Berkshire's transformation from an insurance business. But oddly, Buffett says the person who he has picked doesn't know it. So it's still possible the person could leave the company before Buffett does, or, perhaps, not even want the job.

    On top of that Buffett has said that he would like his son, Howard, to become the chairman of Berkshire, a title that Buffett, Warren that is, also now holds. Howard wouldn't have a day-to-day role at the company. How would all these people work together? Buffett hasn't said. Would they even get along? Who knows.

    But at least some of the erosion of Buffett premium has to do with changes at Berkshire. A large part of the value of the company always had to do with the cash that was generated by the insurance companies and how Buffett invested that cash. But the company now makes a large part of its money from its operating companies. Buffett still invests that money, but he is relied on less to make that money grow than he used to be.