风投冷落中国论可以休矣

    周三早间，我在科技博客网站VentureBeat上看到一篇文章《风投冷对中国，对华投资减少》（As Venture Capitalists Turn Their Backs on China, Funding Dries Up），引发了我的几点思考：

    1.无论市场好坏，优秀的投资者都会投资。他们自己做功课，就算市场愁云惨淡，也会着力寻找最优秀的企业家。本世纪初，我们投资了阿里巴巴集团（Alibaba Group），当时大多数投资者对中国都避之唯恐不及，但这项投资成就了历史上以及全球最成功的风险投资之一。我们持续每年在中国和美国投资1亿美元以上，今年我们也会这样做。我们已经连续12年不间断地做到了，而且企业家们明白，不管公开市场情况如何，他们都可以期待GGV给予他们支持。

    2. 门槛提高了。在热门市场，风投可以向抄袭概念和缺乏竞争力的企业身上砸钱，希望有下一拨投资者“接手”（请注意：这种情况在所有的市场都有发生，不仅仅是在中国）。长期来看，这种方式可行不通。现在，投资的门槛已经提高了，风投们必须努力寻找最好的公司。当然，我是有偏见的，但请相信我，长期在中国本地投资的公司是有优势的。它们经历了市场的起起伏伏，与最优秀企业家们有着最牢固的关系，建立了网络和团队进行调研，物色最优秀的公司。我知道，我的合伙人们以及市场更强大的长期竞争对手现在都空前兴奋。

    3. 趋势不会骗人。中国仍有5亿互联网用户。安卓（Android）和iOS在移动市场（10多亿用户）势如破竹。消费者们正在迅速地将中国变成全球所有奢侈品制造商的头号市场——从梅赛德斯（Mercedes）到苹果（Apple），再到蔻驰（Coach），概莫能外。如果你想搞个天翻地覆，没有比中国更好的市场了。企业家们都明白这一点，长期风投们也明白这一点。

    4. 同时也存在风险。我不想讨论所有细节，但投资中国（就如同任何新兴市场一样），确实也有大风险，包括竞争、监管、法律、货币等等。其中一些风险让投资者对中国望而却步。投资新市场或许令人发憷，而且最后往往都是拥有本土经验、本土关系和行业知识的本土投资者胜出。就像一句谚语说的，“过客最终是要回家的”。

    有一些本不该上市的中国公司在2010年和2011年都公开上市了。这些公司规模较小，缺乏长期可持续的商业模式。但这并不意味着所有的中国公司都是这个样子。听说过这些网站吗：去哪儿网（Qunar）、京东商城（360Buy）或者多玩游戏网（GGV是去哪儿网和多玩游戏网的投资者）？它们都是实实在在的公司，拥有实实在在的商业模式和庞大的用户群。与风险投资领域的情况类似，IPO的标准也提高了，我们认为这是一件好事情。

    虽然VentureBeat以此为题，但千万不要以为所有的风投资本家都开始冷落中国了。长期投资者已经蹲守下来，支持最优秀的企业家，期待未来的挑战和机遇。

    杰夫•理查兹 (@jrichlive) 是风险投资公司GGV Capital的合伙人。

    译者：老榆木

    Saw this article in VentureBeat this morning: "As Venture Capitalists Turn Their Backs on China, Funding Dries Up," and it spurred a few thoughts:

    1. Good investors invest in good and bad markets. They do their homework and focus on finding the best entrepreneurs even when the markets are cloudy. We invested in Alibaba Group in the early 2000′s when most investors were scared to death of China, and it's been one of the greatest venture investments of all time – anywhere. We consistently put $100M+ to work each year in China and the US, and we will again this year. We've been doing it for 12 years – consistently – and entrepreneurs know they can count on GGV to support them regardless of what the public markets are doing.

    2. The bar has been raised. In hot markets, VCs can throw money at copycat concepts and weak businesses in hopes they can "flip" them to the next set of investors (note: this happens in all markets, not just China). This never works over the long run. The bar raises, and VCs have to work hard to find the best companies. I am biased, of course, but believe firms that have been investing locally in China for the long term will have an advantage. They have seen up and down markets, have the strongest relationships with the best entrepreneurs, and have built the infrastructure and teams to do their homework and find the best companies. I know my partners -- as well as many of our stronger, long-term competitors in the market -- have never been more excited.

    3. The trends don't lie. There are still 500 million Internet users in China. Android and iOS are taking the mobile phone market – one billion strong – by storm. Consumers are rapidly turning China into the #1 market for every luxury goods maker in the world – from Mercedes to Apple to Coach. If you want disruption on a massive scale, there is no better market than China. Entrepreneurs know it, and the long-term VCs know it.

    4). There are risks. I won't go into all the details, but yes there are major risks to investing in China (as there are in any emerging market). They include competitive, regulatory, legal, currency, etc. Some of these risks are why investors have pulled back on China. It can be scary to invest in a new market and, when this happens, ;local investors with local knowledge, local relationships and deep industry knowledge tend to win. As the saying goes "the tourists go home."

    There are Chinese companies which went public in 2010 and 2011 which never should have. They were sub-scale without long term, sustainable business models. But that doesn't mean all Chinese companies fit that profile. Ever heard of Qunar, 360Buy or YY? [disclosure: GGV is an investor in Qunar and YY]. They are very real companies with very real business models and massive user bases. As it has on the VC side, the bar has been raised for IPOs, and we think that is a good thing.

    But make no mistake – despite the VentureBeat headline t – not all venture capitalists are turning their backs on China. The long-term investors are hunkering down, backing the best entrepreneurs and looking forward to the challenges and opportunities ahead.

    Jeff Richards (@jrichlive) is a partner with venture capital firm GGV Capital.