法国希腊大选冲击波：如何拯救欧元
|
上周末的法国和希腊大选所引发的信任危机，可能最终会扼杀欧元，并把欧洲大陆推入更深的衰退。可能撕毁先前的协议？可能再度变得大手大脚？这些可不是眼下华尔街或市场希望听到的，而且只会促使更多的资本流出欧元区。 所有这些不确定性都证明我们需要一个更加实实在在的方案来解决欧元危机，需要一个更紧密的经济联盟——遗憾的是，这似乎越来越渺茫。在可能达成一个长期方案前, 欧元区需要重新树立市场的信心。华尔街期待这两个新政府能宣称，至少会在前任政府达成的协议框架下开展工作，努力维护欧元。在此基础上，才可以探讨发行“欧元债券”和在欧元区内进行财富转移。 现在，市场已经消化和接受了现实：法国下届总统将来自社会党，而希腊政治体系已陷入一片混乱。虽然前者在意料之中，后者却有些令人意外。希腊人民在极度沮丧（这完全可以理解）的心情下进行了大选投票，没有一个传统政党获得足够组阁的议会多数席位。 但希腊政治体系的混乱局面终将消退。一旦明确没有一家政党能牵头凑出一个取得多数票的政治联盟，希腊很可能在6月10日再次投票。因此，上周末的选举在某种意义上可视为第一轮投票，希腊人民情绪化而非策略性的投票。 希腊两大传统政党——中右翼新民主党（New Democracy）和中左翼泛希腊社会主义运动（PASOK）最可能在下一轮选举中获得足够的选票进行联合组阁，可能是同一个意识形态类似的小党派，也可能是两大党联合。两党都表示，他们将致力于改变希腊的救助协议，让紧缩措施变得更为温和，同时将致力于维护欧元，因此他们很可能采取必要的措施让希腊留在欧元区内。 在法国，弗朗索瓦•奥朗德正准备打开社会主义之门。上次，法国社会党总统入住爱丽舍宫已是十七年前的事了。当时还有人担心，弗朗索瓦•密特朗总统可能会在他的就职典礼上邀请苏联军队列队穿越巴黎的大街。当然，这样的事情根本没有发生，法国依然是一个响当当的自由市场经济体。 奥朗德相信，经济增长是将法国拖出当前经济泥潭的唯一途径。这点他说得很对。但他同时相信要实现经济增长，只能通过大规模的政府支出，取消（如果不是全部取消）法国总统萨科奇与欧盟（European Union）协定的“财政条约”（Fiscal Compact）中削减债务的紧缩措施。 |
The elections in France and Greece over the weekend have created a crisis of confidence that could eventually drown the euro and push the continent into a deeper recession. Talk of tearing up past agreements and a return to profligate spending is not what Wall Street and the markets need to hear right now and will simply serve to encourage further capital flight out of the eurozone. All this uncertainty confirms that a more concrete solution to the euro crisis is needed, one that involves a much tighter economic union -- something that regrettably looks increasingly untenable. But before a permanent solution could ever possibly take root, market confidence needs to be restored to the eurozone. Wall Street is looking for the new governments to say that they will at the very least work within the framework of the agreements set up by their predecessors and that they are committed to the euro. After that, there can be talk of issuing "eurobonds" and wealth transfers within the zone. By now the markets have digested the reality that France's next president will be from the Socialist party and that Greece's political system has fallen into total chaos. While the former was expected, the latter was a bit of a surprise. The Greek people voted out of pure frustration (which is totally understandable), giving none of the traditional political parties enough of a majority in parliament to form a government. But the chaos in the Greek political system will eventually subside. Greeks will most likely take to the polls again on June 10th once it becomes clear that none of them can cobble up a winning coalition. The election this past weekend will therefore be looked at as some sort of first round vote in which people vote emotionally as opposed to strategically. The two traditional parties, the center-right New Democracy party and the center-left PASOK party, will most likely pick up enough votes in the next election to form a coalition government, either with a smaller party with a similar ideological leanings or with each other. While both have said they would seek changes to the country's bailout agreement in order to tone down required austerity programs, both are committed to the euro, so they will probably do what is needed to stay in the club. Over in France, Francois Hollande is getting ready to open up a can of socialism. It has been seventeen years since a Socialist party president resided in the Elysee Palace. Back then there were fears that the president, Francois Mitterrand, would invite the Soviet Army to parade down the boulevards of Paris during his inauguration. Of course, nothing of the sort occurred, and France remained a strong free market economy. Hollande believes that economic growth is the only way to get his country out of its current economic slump. He is correct on that point. But he also believes that growth can only be achieved through massive government spending and the cancelation of most, if not all, of the debt-cutting austerity measures that French President Sarkozy had agreed to in the "Fiscal Compact" with the European Union. |
