世界顶尖天才商品交易员突然引退之谜

    交易员们有时会私底下提到对金融市场真相的探究——他们深信，在金融市场深处隐藏着一个甜区，只要加以合理利用必定能够赚钱。

    现年38岁的亿万富翁约翰•阿诺德是一名天然气交易员，并被许多投资者视为“掌握了真相的人”，然而，他在本周向投资者宣布了退休计划。阿诺德是能源市场上著名的“法师”，2007年，他入选福布斯美国400富豪榜单，成为美国最年轻的亿万富翁，从此便名声大振。虽然阿诺德本人对所谓的金融真相（如果确实存在）嗤之以鼻，但是，在同行眼中，他确实掌握了这些秘诀。

    “我从未见过任何行业中的任何人能像阿诺德那样，获得过这么多的赞誉，”曾与阿诺德竞争、并败给阿诺德的对冲基金的一位高管表示。“拥有私人飞机的CEO们都崇拜他。当他走进房间，头发花白的交易员像12岁少女追捧贾斯汀•比伯那样追捧他。通常情况下，像他这样成功的人都树敌颇多，但是我却没有发现他有什么仇人——这在这个行业里确实有些不可思议。要知道，人们当面都会赞扬保尔森或索罗斯，却在背后悄悄议论他们。但是，人们对约翰•阿诺德的议论只有一个，那就是——他真是个不折不扣的天才。”

    阿诺德的故事可谓人尽皆知：他曾是安然公司（Enron）的明星交易员，从美国历史上最臭名昭著的企业破产案中东山再起；2002年，在几名早期投资者的帮助下，他用800万美元的奖金在休斯顿成立了自己的对冲基金。许多人都怀有戒心，但是阿诺德不辞辛劳，使自己摆脱了安然公司的恶名，并在短短几年内获得了史无前例的巨额利润和巨大的声誉。

    2006年，阿诺德的基金Centaurus Advisors实现了317%的净收益率。这支基金达到巅峰时，资金规模约为50亿美元，其中大部分资金都属于阿诺德本人。Centaurus的收费标准高于平均标准（3%的管理费和30%的收益），开盘后不久便向新投资者关闭了交易，但是，已经选择了这支基金的许多投资者，就像是好不容易挤进了VIP房包间，拼命保住自己的会员资格，担心一不留神就被赶出去。

    虽然他拥有无可匹敌的财富和公认的求胜心理，但是，很少有人知道阿诺德卑微的出身和低调的人格。他的数字运算能力和交易能力非常神奇，而他的幕后故事是：出身于中产阶级家庭，极度羞涩，17岁时父亲便离开了人世。他是家中最小的孩子，曾居住在匹兹堡和达拉斯，父母职业分别为律师和会计师。他聪慧过人，酷爱运动，在范德堡大学（Vanderbilt University）就读期间给大学教授留下了深刻的印象。三年后大学毕业时，他获得了数学和经济学双学位。但即便是与他最亲近的人也对他有所防范，如安然公司之前的同事和他的哥哥马修（同样曾是安然公司的交易员）。另外，他的母亲是Centaurus的会计师。

    Traders, when not speaking on the record, will sometimes allude to the search for a financial Truth -- a belief that somewhere buried deep within the market there is a sweet spot that, if properly tapped, can unleash a fortune.

    John Arnold, the 38-year-old billionaire gas trader who told his investors this week he planned to retire, was seen by many as the bearer of such a Truth. The celebrated necromancer of the energy market rose to fame in 2007, when he gate-crashed the Forbes 400 Richest Americans list as the youngest billionaire in the nation. And while it is likely that Arnold would scoff at the notion of a financial Truth, if there ever was one, it did appear to his trading brethren he was in possession of it.

    "I have never seen such universal adulation of anyone in an industry the way I've seen people adulate him," says an executive from a hedge fund that competed – and lost – against Arnold. "CEOs with their own private jets worship him. Grizzled traders act like 12-year old girls around Justin Bieber when he walks into the room. Someone this successful always has haters, but I've never seen him having any – and that is amazing for this industry. You know, people will extol Paulson or Soros and then whisper about them behind their backs. But the only thing they whisper about John Arnold is that he's a freakin' genius."

    The official story of Arnold is well-known: a star Enron trader who rose from the ashes of one of the most scandalous corporate bankruptcies in American history, launching his own Houston hedge fund in 2002 with the help of an $8 million bonus and a handful of early investors. While many were wary, Arnold took pains to distance himself from Enron's blackened legacy and, within a few short years, extracted frothy profits, propelling himself to unprecedented fame and celebrity. (See this 2009 Fortune story The wunderkind gas trader)

    In 2006, Arnold minted returns of 317%, net of fees, at his fund, Centaurus Advisors. At the fund's zenith, it held around $5 billion, much of it Arnold's own capital. Centaurus, which charged higher-than-average fees (3% for management and 30% of earnings) closed to new investors shortly after opening, but those who made the cut guarded their memberships fiercely, acting as though they barely squeaked into a VIP room from which they could easily be jettisoned.

    What is less known about Arnold is his humble background and low-key personality, despite his formidable wealth and what all agree is a diehard competitive streak. While his number-crunching capabilities and trading prowess are legendary, his backstory is one of a painfully shy, middle-class kid who lost his father at the age of 17. The youngest of his family, he grew up in Pittsburgh and then Dallas, reared by a lawyer father and accountant mother. He was a sharp student who impressed his professors at Vanderbilt University, where he graduated with a degree in both math and economics in three years, and loved to play sports. But those closest to him are very protective of him, including ex-colleagues at Enron and his older brother, Matthew, who also traded at Enron. Even at Centaurus, his mother worked as an accountant.