希腊退出欧元区前景分析

    从希腊争吵不休的各党派到欧洲央行官员，每个人都在表达这样的信念：希腊会留在欧元区内。这样的表态并不奇怪，因为光是谈谈怎样成功退出，也会散播恐慌情绪，导致退出最终不可避免。但恐慌情绪早已存在。希腊可能几周内（如果不是几天内）就会退出欧元区。

    最紧迫的问题并不是希腊目前四分五裂的议会，虽然议会意见分歧可能导致国际货币基金组织（IMF）和欧盟委员会（European Community）要求推行的改革措施难以落实，进而影响到下一笔救助款项到位。最最紧迫的是灾难性的银行挤兑。“一年来，希腊人一直都在把希腊银行里的存款转至海外银行。”芝加哥大学（University of Chicago）国际经济学退休教授罗伯特•阿里布表示，“如今，资金流出已达到顶点。”的确如此，仅周一一天，从希腊银行流出的资金就高达近9亿美元。

    资本外逃导致储蓄锐减，令按揭再融资和小企业贷款供应紧张，引发全面的信贷危机。希腊人还特别不愿意把欧元花在汽车、外出就餐或其他事情上，因为他们估计这些欧元在未来几周或几个月能在超市和汽车用品店买到更多东西。压缩消费，进一步损伤经济。

    希腊的退出是绝对必要的。“以欧元计价，希腊的价格和成本都太高了，导致其无法在国际市场上展开竞争。”阿里布说，“所有这些指向错误的救助方案给希腊人带来的痛苦要远远超出他们通过降低价格或成本获得的好处。”阿里布认为，政治僵局实际上是件好事，因为这会加速废止严重高估的货币，这正是让希腊恢复增长所必需的。

    弃用欧元、改回本币的具体做法可以预见。将来不远的一天，假设是周五下午晚些时候，希腊政府宣布所有银行接下来一周关门歇业。周一，议会投票通过一项紧急法案，指定固定兑换汇率，假设1德拉克马（希腊加入欧元区之前的货币）兑换1欧元。从周一起，所有企业和个人在希腊银行的存款都改为德拉克马计价。

    德拉克马的币值会下跌，可能很快希腊民众就需要至少1.5德拉克马来换1欧元。拥有15,000欧元的存款账户变成了15,000德拉克马。但这些德拉克马很快就只能换回10,000欧元。这意味着33%的贬值。“这一贬值幅度在退出共同货币体系的国家中处于较低水平，”卡内基研究院（Carnegie Endowment）的经济学家尤里•达杜什表示。

    接下来是关键，顶尖经济学家们对于希腊退出欧元后的前景也分歧严重。当然，这不是古希腊悲剧作家埃斯库罗斯或古希腊喜剧作家阿里斯托芬的剧作，观众早已知道结局。雅典大学（University of Athens）的亚尼斯•瓦鲁法科斯预计这是一场希腊悲剧，银行挤兑后出现德拉克马挤兑。希腊人拿到德拉克马后就会到自动存款机上存入，再将德拉克马兑换成人们私藏在冰箱里的欧元，”瓦鲁法科斯说。他预计德拉克马兑其他货币将继续下跌，希腊人将继续挤兑，造成新一轮恶性通货膨胀。

    Everyone from Greece's squabbling political parties to Europe's central bankers are expressing faith that Greece will remain in the Euro. That's not surprising, since simply talking about how to manage an exit would spread panic, making the exit inevitable. But the panic is already here. Greece's departure from the Euro could happen within a couple of weeks, if not a few days.

    The pressing problem isn't a splintered legislature that may balk at delivering the reforms that the IMF and European Community are demanding in exchange for the next tranche of bailout money. It's a disastrous, old-fashioned run-on-the bank. "For a year, Greeks have been sending their savings from Greek banks to foreign banks," says Robert Aliber, retired professor of international economics from the University of Chicago. "Now, the flood has reached a crescendo." Indeed on Monday alone, outflows from the Greek banks reached almost $900 million.

    The flight of capital is sapping the deposits needed to refinance mortgages and small business loans, causing a full-blown credit crisis. Greeks are also extremely reluctant to spend their Euros on cars, dining or anything else, since they reckon those Euros will buy more at the supermarkets and auto lots in the weeks or months ahead. The disappearing consumer is further crippling the economy.

    Greece's exit is absolutely necessary. "Its prices and costs are far too high under the Euro, so it just cannot compete on international markets," says Aliber. "The Greeks have suffered far more through all these misguided bailouts than they've gained by lowering prices or costs." The political gridlock, argues Aliber, is actually a good thing because it will hasten abandoning a disastrously overvalued currency, just what's needed to get Greece growing again.

    The mechanics of shelving the Euro for its own currency are pretty predictable. One day soon, imagine it's late on a Friday afternoon, the Greek government will declare all banks closed for the following week. By Monday, the legislature will vote an emergency law that designates a fixed exchange rate of, say, 1 drachma –– the Greek pre-Euro currency –– for each Euro. By Monday, all corporate and personal savings in Greek banks will be denominated in drachma.

    The drachma will tumble in value, so that almost immediately, Greek consumers will need at least 1.5 Drachma to buy one Euro. A savings account that held 15,000 euros is now 15,000 Drachma. But those drachmas will soon fetch just 10,000 Euros. That's a "devaluation" of 33%. "That number is the low-end of the range for countries that exit a common currency," says Uri Dadush, an economist at the Carnegie Endowment.

    What happens next is the pivotal issue, and top economists disagree strongly on Greece's post-Euro future. To be sure, this isn't a play by Aeschylus or Aristophanes where the audience knows the finale. Yanis Varoufakis of the University of Athens foresees a Greek tragedy in which a run on the banks is followed by a run on the drachma. "Greeks paid in drachma will go to the ATM then immediately exchange their drachma for Euros people have stashed in their freezers," says Varoufakis. He thinks that the drachma will keep plunging against foreign currencies, and Greeks will keep bailing, causing a new crisis of hyperinflation.