下半年美国市场黄金价格有望上涨

    投资者素以黄金作为避险资产，可在欧洲债务危机不断恶化之际，即使是黄金也失去了光泽。上周四早上金价跌到每盎司1,560.90美元，一个月来下跌了7%。

    这倒不是头一回市场疲软时金价下跌。金融危机最严重的时候，金价下跌了20%，此种现象是几方面因素共同作用的结果：由于美国金融系统几乎崩溃，投资者纷纷抛售股票，用套现所得买进美国国债；面临在美投资的亏损，机构投资者卖出海外资产，以满足追加保证金的要求或经纪合同的规定；最后，随着银行收紧贷款限制，资金变得紧缺。

    所有这些都推高了美元的实际价值，由于黄金是按美元计价的，美元贬值通常会引发黄金价格的上涨——因为对持有其他货币的买家来说，黄金变得更贵了。反之亦然。

    最近几个月来，美元相对于欧元迅速升值，从而压低了金价。由于希腊可能退出欧元区，该货币联盟的危机愈演愈烈，投资者纷纷抛弃欧元，涌入美国或德国国债市场，以此作为安全港。上周三，受独立评级机构伊根-琼斯不到一个月内第三次下调西班牙主权信用评级的影响，欧元兑美元汇率创下了近两年来的新低。

    但是，金价承受的压力可能缓解。汇丰证券大宗商品首席分析师詹姆斯•斯蒂尔指出，过去一年来，决定金价走势的是全球最大两场金融灾难的演化。欧洲的金融乱局压低了金价，而美国的债务困境则曾推动黄金价格创下新高。去年9月，美国国会削减财政赤字的谈判陷入僵局，美国主权信用评级也应此首次遭到下调，每盎司黄金价格应声突破了1,900美元。

    如果历史可以为鉴，金价今年下半年有望反弹。在美国，国会议员们预计将再次忙于拿出一套削减财政赤字的方案，否则规模数万亿的加税与削减开支计划将会自动生效。美国国会预算办公室已经警告说，若出现这种情况，2013年上半年美国经济将萎缩1.3%. 这些问题可能会在股票和其他金融资产上投下阴影，迫使投资者买入黄金。

    至少在今后几个月里，黄金将再度卷入全球最严重的债务灾难。

    译者：小宇

    Investors have long found safety in gold, but the precious metal has been losing luster as Europe's ongoing debt crisis intensifies. As of Thursday morning, gold was down 7% this month, at $1,560.90 an ounce.

    This isn't the first time gold has fallen when markets turn shaky. During the depths of the global financial crisis, the metal dropped by 20%. A few factors drove the decline: As the U.S. financial system nearly collapsed, investors took their money out of stocks and poured them into U.S. Treasuries. And institutional investors, faced with losses on U.S. investments, liquidated overseas assets to meet margin calls or broker agreements. Finally, as banks clamped down on lending, money became scarce.

    All that helped drive up the value of the greenback. Because gold is priced in dollars, the currency's decline typically leads to a rise in the metal's value because gold becomes more expensive for buyers who hold other currencies. And vice versa.

    In recent months, the rapidly rising dollar against the euro has brought down gold. As the euro zone crisis turns from bad to worse with Greece's possible exit from the monetary union, investors have been leaving the euro and flocking to safety in Treasuries and German bunds. On Wednesday, the euro fell to its weakest level against the dollar in almost two years after Egan-Jones Ratings cut Spain's credit rating for the third time in less than a month.

    But pressure on gold could ease up some. For the past year, it has been entangled in the world's biggest fiscal woes, says James Steel, chief commodities analyst at HSBC Securities. While Europe's financial mess has driven gold downward, America's debt problems have helped boost gold to record highs. It soared past $1,900 an ounce by last September, shortly after the U.S. suffered its first-ever debt downgrade as Congress stalled on talks to reduce the national deficit.

    If the past repeats itself, gold could see a rebound later this year. Lawmakers are expected to scramble once again on a deficit reduction plan or else trillions of dollars in looming tax hikes and spending cuts will automatically kick in. The Congressional Budget Office has warned the economy could contract by 1.3% during the first half of 2013. These issues threaten to cast a shadow over equities and other financial assets, and push investors into bullion.

    For at least the next several months, gold will surely be caught in the middle of the world's big debt fiascos.