严管交易所基金刻不容缓

    铜价是全球经济的晴雨表，它的走向反映了全球工业冷暖。当中国像打了兴奋剂一样处于飞速增长阶段时，铜就是体壮如牛的宇宙先生。中国咳嗽连连，铜就显露出肺炎的征兆。看到铜价波动和全球性机会，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）计划推出由实物铜担保的一支ETF。

    美国用铜大户Southwire和金属交易对冲基金Red Kite已向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）投诉称，这支基金可能“通过吸纳伦敦金属交易所（London Metal Exchange）三分之一的库存，推升铜价、压缩供应。”他们表示，这对市场的影响堪比住友（Sumimoto）铜交易丑闻。当年，住友的铜交易员滨中泰男（人送绰号“铜先生”）吞下了全球5%的实物铜，人为保持高铜价，使得住友银行（Sumimoto Bank）能获利减持，并对客户的铜交易收取高额佣金。

    投诉称，摩根大通拟建的ETF将“人为提高整体铜价水平”，“对美国和全球经济造成巨大破坏”。监管机构文件显示，这只ETF可持有多达61,000公吨实物铜。

    此案或许不会仅限于SEC层面——美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）可能也想对铜交易进行监管，哪怕只是作为其要求提高预算的一个借口。取决于SEC的裁定和用词，藉此政府或正式表态“投机造成价格波动”。有一点是确定无疑的：ETF需求并非常规的经济需求，而且与营销材料和监管机构接受的定义相反，ETF交易常常造成所依托投资工具的人为失衡。

    ETF根据客户指令进行单位创建或赎回，交易员完全对价格不敏感。一笔购买铜ETF的大单可能造成交易员冲进交易大厅，买下所有能买到的实物铜。这种举动会搅动市场吗？住友的一名交易员仅控制全球5%的铜就足以扰乱十年的市场价格。上述投诉称，摩根大通的新ETF可能累积伦敦金属交易所持30%的铜。它将造成该ETF在美国国内（净进口国）买入铜，打乱市场供应。

    恰巧，《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）最近也注意到了采矿设备制造商Joy Global在业绩公告中预测铜价上涨，因为“当前库存有很大一部分在中国被用于融资抵押”。看来，世界上有不少铜“作为当地交易员和银行的复杂融资交易的一部分，没有进入市场，而是留在了中国的仓库里”。

    The price of copper is a global bellwether, signaling industrial health wherever it trades. When China was in its steroid-induced growth phase, copper was Mr. Universe. Then China coughed and copper caught the mother of all pneumonias. Seeing opportunity in volatility and global range, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) plans to launch an ETF backed by physical copper.

    Southwire, one of the largest copper consumers in the U.S., and metals trader Red Kite have filed a complaint with the SEC, claiming the fund will "inflate prices and squeeze supply by removing as much as a third of the London Metal Exchange's copper stocks." They say the effect on the markets will be comparable to the Sumimoto scandal when metals trader Yasuo Hamanaka (a/k/a "Mr. Copper") sucked up 5% of the world's physical copper and maintained artificially high price levels, enabling Sumimoto Bank to sell its positions profitably while also charging high commissions on customer copper trades.

    The complaint says the proposed ETF will "grossly and artificially inflate prices" and "wreak havoc on the US and global economy." Regulatory filings indicate the ETF could hold as much as 61,000 metric tons of physical copper.

    This may not remain an SEC case – the CFTC may want to oversee copper too, if only as an excuse to ask for a budget increase. Depending on how the Commission rules, and on the language they use, this could point to a formal government determination that speculation causes price volatility. One thing is certain: ETF demand is not normal economic demand and, contrary to the marketing materials and the definition accepted by the regulators, ETF trading often creates artificial imbalances in the underlying instruments.

    ETF units are created or liquidated to meet orders, making traders completely price-insensitive. A large order to buy a copper ETF causes a trader to dash out onto the floor and buy all the physical copper he can. Can this disrupt the markets? A Sumimoto trader's control of just 5% of the world's copper was enough to disrupt pricing in the marketplace for ten years. The complaint calculates the new ETF could stockpile as much as 30% of the copper held on the London Metals Exchange. This would cause the ETF to buy copper within the U.S. – a net importer – disrupting the flow of supply.

    Coincidentally, the Wall Street Journal recently noted an earnings release from mining equipment maker Joy Global (JOY), predicting higher prices for copper because "a substantial portion of the current inventory has been pledged as collateral for financing in China." It appears much of the world's copper is "off-market in Chinese warehouses as part of complex financing deals among local traders and banks."