欧元区改革：德国胜券在握

    坐在驾驶座上的是德国总理安吉拉•默克尔。

    欧洲越早认识到德国掌握着大部分（如果不是全部）终结欧元区债务危机的牌，就能越早找到一个持久的解决方案。拥有经济正增长、低失业率和极低利率的德国并不急于实施经济较弱的邻国提议的改革措施，这些措施会对德国的廉价信贷和扩大出口能力构成负面影响。

    能让这个欧盟最大成员国确信实施改革（比如发行欧元债券）的唯一办法是看到改革带来的好处，比如掌控整个欧元区的财政政策。欧元区其他成员国，如法国，对于把更多经济权力交给布鲁塞尔，并最终交给法兰克福持谨慎态度。但是，像把欧元区现有债务汇集起来、阻止危机蔓延的解决方案是一个良好的开端，它们需要让德国看到一些好处并参与进来。

    从这场危机之初，德国总理安吉拉•默克尔就一直被批评在解决欧元区危机问题上不给力。“德国在哪儿？”、“默克尔未能担起领导角色”这样的标题充斥着大西洋两岸报纸的版面。

    但与欧元区其他国家的领导人不同，从两年多前这场危机爆发以来，默克尔一直在位。这部分是由于德国的选举规定，但德国经济也是原因——虽然现在有点摇摆不定，但自2010年危机爆发以来，德国经济实际上一直在改善。2010年德国GDP增长3.5%，远超邻国。2011年德国经济增长2.7%，邻国大多陷入衰退。虽然经济学家原本预计今年一季度可能表现糟糕，但德国经济实际增长0.5%，比预测值高5倍。

    鉴于德国主要贸易伙伴国很多是陷入困顿的欧元区成员国，这或许有些让人困惑不解，但德国看起来极大地受益于欧元走软，这增强了德国向非欧元区国家出口的竞争力。与欧元区其他国家不同，德国是一个出口大国，制造全球热销的高品质产品。讽刺的是，欧元区危机反而增强了德国的出口实力，继续成为全球第二大出口经济体，仅次于中国。

    与此同时，德国也受益于投资者对德国国债的需求增长。德国的债务/GDP比率约为80%，高于陷入困境的西班牙（68%），但德国国债的收益率为零，而西班牙的国债收益率接近7%。本月由于需求旺盛，某些时候德国国债的收益率甚至变成了负值。购买德国国债的投资者，从德国银行到美国养老基金不一而足。但最近，增长最快的是来自西班牙和希腊的存款人，他们疯狂地取出毕生积蓄买入德国国债，因为他们担心本国政府可能决定脱离欧元区，货币贬值可能将他们的储蓄毁于一旦。

    In the driver's seat: German Chancellor Angela Merkel

    The faster Europe realizes that Germany holds most, if not all, of the cards when it comes to ending the eurozone debt crisis, the faster a lasting solution can be found. With positive economic growth, low unemployment and fantastically low interest rates, Germany is simply in no rush to implement reforms that have been proposed by its economically weaker neighbors, as they would negatively impact Germany's ability to borrow cheaply and expand exports.

    The only way the EU's biggest member can be convinced to take on reforms, like issuing eurobonds, would be if it were granted incentives, such as control over the fiscal policy of the eurozone. Other members of the eurozone, namely France, have been wary about handing more of their economic power over to Brussels and ultimately to Frankfurt. But while solutions like the pooling of eurozone's existing debt is a good first step to diffusing the crisis, they still require incentives for Germany to get on board.

    Since the start of the crisis, Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel has been accused of dragging her feet when it comes to ending the eurozone crisis. Headlines like, "Where is Germany?" or "Merkel's failure to lead," have graced newspapers on both sides of the Atlantic.

    But unlike nearly every other eurozone leader, Merkel hasn't been thrown out of power since the crisis began more than two year ago. While that is due in part to election rules in Germany, it is also due to Germany's economy, which, while a little wobbly now, has actually improved since the crisis began in 2010. That year, Germany's GDP grew at 3.5% - much faster than its neighbors. In 2011, it grew at 2.7% at the same time most of its neighbors slipped into recession. And while economists had predicted a terrible first quarter for Germany this year, its economy actually grew five times more than expected, at 0.5%.

    That might seem puzzling given that many of Germany's main trading partners are crippled eurozone members, but the country seems to have benefitted greatly from the weakening of the euro, since it has increased the competitiveness of its exports in non-eurozone countries. Unlike the rest of the eurozone, Germany is an exporting powerhouse, making high-quality goods that are in demand across the world. The eurozone crisis has ironically only increased its export strength, continuing to make it the world's second-largest export economy in the world, behind China.

    At the same time, Germany has also benefitted from an increase in investor demand for its debt. Germany has a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 80%, which is higher than troubled Spain at 68%, yet its debt is trading at zero, while Spain's debt is trading near 7%. Demand for German debt was so great this month that at some points it actually traded at a negative yield. Investors buying this debt range from German banks to U.S. pension funds. But the big surge in buying lately has come from Spanish and Greek depositors who are frantically withdrawing their life savings and putting them in German bonds on fear that their respective governments will leave the eurozone and destroy their savings through devaluation.