华尔街暗藏的欧洲风险

    华尔街大行一直试图在欧洲危机中能先人一步。这可能还远远不够。

    今年早些时候，很多美国银行宣布已显著降低在欧洲最差经济体的敞口。当欧元危机看来即将再度升温之时，这类消息受人欢迎。但鲜为人知的是在华尔街削减希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙敞口的同时，它也在加大对意大利、法国和其他似乎相对安全的欧洲国家的贷款和债券购买。在当时看来，这似乎是审慎的风险性投资。但现在人们开始担心这些国家将来违约的风险可能高于原先设想。

    但上周末欧洲多国被迫出手救助西班牙银行的消息，让人们开始担心欧洲一些经济规模相对较大的国家将来违约的风险可能高于原先设想。这对于美国银行业可能也是一个问题。

    比如高盛（Goldman Sachs）就在今年前3个月购买了22亿美元的意大利债券，而意大利被广泛视为可能是继西班牙之后下一个陷入困境的国家。美国银行（Bank of America）今年前3个月也在投资组合中加入了超过6亿美元的意大利国债。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）继上年押注法国国债走低后，也增加了5.55亿美元的法国国债。

    这只是我们可以看到的敞口。美国银行业相比过去更多地披露了欧洲敞口，大部分都涉及过去一年左右被视为危机最为深重的国家，如希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙。高盛、美国银行和摩根大通（JP Morgan Chase）的财务报表上依然没有提供在法国的贷款和公司债敞口细节。美国最大的几家银行没有一家披露可能因此将在德国或欧洲损失多少。

    华尔街公司和美国大银行近来可能已增加了在欧洲经济大国的业务活动。美国银行需要更多资本来满足新的监管要求。既然不想出售更多股票，唯一的选择只能是增加利润。但如今美国经济增长缓慢，楼市疲弱，利率低企，在这样的形势下要实现利润增长很难。因此，很多美国银行转向欧洲，希望在当地银行苦苦挣扎之际寻求扩张和竞争机会。高盛总裁盖瑞•科恩最近在向投资者和分析师演示时就表示，高盛可以通过接管海外竞争对手的客户而获益。但这么做的同时，高盛承担的欧洲风险也将随之上升。

    Wall Street firms have been trying to stay one step ahead of the European crisis. That might not be far enough.

    Earlier this year, a number of U.S. banks disclosed that they had significantly cut their exposure to Europe's most troubled economies. That was welcome news at a time when the Euro crisis appeared to be heating up again. But what got little notice was that while Wall Street firms were cutting their exposure to Greece and Ireland and Portugal, they were increasing their lending and bond buying in Italy, France and other European nations that seemed more secure. At the time that might have seemed like prudent risk taking.

    Over the weekend, though, European nations were forced to bailout Spain's banks. That's raised fears that the larger European economies might be in more danger of default than earlier thought. And that might be a problem for U.S. banks as well.

    Goldman Sachs (GS), for instance, bought $2.2 billion worth of bonds in Italy, which is widely seen as the next troubled nation after Spain, in the first three months of the year. Bank of America (BAC), too, added over $600 million of Italian government bonds to its portfolio in the first three months of the year. Morgan Stanley (MS) added $555 million in French government bonds, after largely betting against the nation's debt in the year before.

    And that's just the bets we can see. While the banks now disclose more about their Europe bets than they used to. Most of the detail has to do with the countries that have been seen for the past year or so as the most troubled, like Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The financial statements of Goldman and Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) still give no detail about those banks' lending and credit exposure in France. None of the U.S.'s largest banks disclose anything about how much much they stand to lose in say Germany, or Europe overall for that matter.

    MORE: Four reasons why the euro will survive

    It is likely that Wall Street firms and U.S. large banks have recently been upping their activities in Europe's largest economies. U.S. banks need more capital in order to meet new regulatory requirements. And they don't want to have to sell more shares to do so. The only other option is to increase your bottom line. But that's hard to do in a slow U.S. economy, still struggling with a housing downturn, and low interest rates. And so a number of U.S. banks are looking to Europe to expand and pick up business at a time when local banks are struggling. At a recent presentation for investors and analysts, Goldman's president Gary Cohn said that Goldman could benefit from Europe's financial troubles by picking up customers for weaker overseas rivals. But to do so, Goldman will have to up what it could loose in Europe as well.