希腊不会重现雷曼悲剧

    不久以前，人们还在对任何与欧洲有丁点关系的投资避之不及。如今，在希腊投票可能让欧洲财政问题再陷僵局的前夕，美国投资者却已对欧洲危机的说法不以为然。标准普尔500指数正在从5月份的跌跌不休中反弹。再出一个雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）？不可能。如今，绝大多人相信希腊退出欧元区是“可控”的。（注：原文写于希腊投票前）

    几天前，我与一位过去交易大盘金融股的对冲基金经理聊天，“谨慎”一词或许还不足以形容他。早在上世纪90年代中期，他就曾警告我要提防证券化风险，正是证券化带来了次级债、债务担保凭证（CDO）和其他很多最终引发金融危机的“创新”。不过，最近当另外一位交易员买下大都会人寿（MetLife）持有的相当一部分与希腊、葡萄牙和其他一些欧洲财政弱国相关的债券时，他说，他基本上瞧不上这个人了。“他们知道这风险已有两年了。”他说，“你是在告诉我，他们还没有采取行动？”

    看起来这就是当今市场大多数投资者的假定。既然我们知道希腊和欧债危机至少已有一年，实际上可能比这更早，大都会人寿和其他公司肯定早已采取自我保护措施？但他们做了吗？风险是投资者对大都会人寿和其他公司的自我保护措施可能估计过高。

    比如，美国大银行已基本结清希腊风险敞口或进行了对冲。但近来，他们一直在增加对意大利和法国的风险敞口。因此，如果希腊违约，他们的问题不大。但如果这导致欧洲银行业更广泛的挤兑，美国大银行仍将损失巨大。

    去年夏季令人忧心的另一类欧洲资产——货币市场基金也不像一年前那么让人操心了。Federated Investors管理的资产约有3/4是货币市场基金。尽管如此，该股今年仍大涨43%。

    像其他货币基金公司一样，Federated也将投资主要货币市场基金的敞口从去年的45%降到了今年的21%。尽管如此，Federated在欧洲的投资仍超过了任何一个竞争对手。跟踪Federated的10位华尔街分析师无一推荐该股。不过，看起来这些分析师担心的主要是悬而未决的货币市场监管改革，而不是欧洲问题。

    “过去五年我们倍受欧洲问题困扰，”给予Federated“弱于大盘”评级的瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）分析师克雷格•西根塔勒说，“现在的投资者不太担心欧洲商业票据敞口。”他认为，Federated的货币市场基金很难会有重大损失，除非出现像雷曼那样的事件。这正是问题所在。

    译者：早稻米

    Not too long ago investors were running scared from any investment that seemed remotely tied to Europe. Now, on the eve of a Greek vote that could throw the continent's finances into question again, U.S. investors are blowing off the idea that Europe's a major risk. The S&P 500 is rebounding from its May pummeling. Another Lehman Brothers. No way. The prevailing line these days is that a Greek exit from the Euro would be "manageable."

    Yesterday I was talking to a hedge fund manager who used to trade the shares of large-cap financial stocks. To say he is a cautious guy would be an understatement. Back in the mid-1990s, he warned me about the dangers of securitization, the process that created subprime mortgage bonds and CDOs and many of the other "innovations" that led to the financial crisis. Yet, when another trader recently brought up MetLife's (MET) significant holdings of bonds tied to Greece, Portugal and some of Europe's other weaker financial nations, he said he mostly dismissed the guy. "They've known about the risk for two years," he says. "You're telling me they haven't dealt with it?"

    And that appears to be the presumption running the market right now. Since we have known about Greece and the European debt crisis for at least a year now, and really much longer than that, MetLife and others have surely acted to protect themselves. But have they? The risk is that the market is presuming that MetLife and others have done more than they actually have.

    Large U.S. banks, for instance, have mostly sold off or hedged nearly all of their exposure to Greece. But they have recently been increasing their exposure to Italy and France. So they are protected if Greece defaults. But if that leads to a wider run on European banks, large U.S. banks could still lose billions.

    Money market funds, another source of European worry last summer, are eliciting fewer concerns than they were a year ago. About three-quarters of the assets under management at Federated Investors (FII) are in money market funds. Nonetheless, shares of the company are up 43% this year.

    Federated, like other money market fund managers, has cut the European exposure of its prime money market funds from 45% a year ago. At 21%, though, Federated has more invested in Europe than any of its competitors. None of the 10 Wall Street analysts who follow Federated are currently recommending the stock. Still, it appears most of the analysts' worries are related to pending money market regulatory changes, not fears about Europe.

    "We've been stressed on Europe three times in the past five years," says Credit Suisse analyst Craig Siegenthaler, who gives Federated's shares an "underperform" rating. "Investors are less worried about European commercial paper exposure this time around." Siegenthaler says it would be very hard for Federated's money market funds to have major losses. You would have to have a Lehman-like event, he says. And that's exactly the point.