美国通胀水平可能继续下降
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美联储（Federal Reserve）主席本•伯南克经常因为对股市过度反应而遭受批评。不过也许他就该这么干。 上一次股市大崩盘后，美联储推出了第二轮量化宽松和“扭转操作”。最近道琼斯指数再次大跌（尽管昨日有所反弹），再加上其它一些比较疲软的经济数据，让人怀疑伯南克和美联储是否会再次推出一轮新的刺激计划。同时，也有些人对伯南克的救市手段感到不满，认为伯南克更关心的是股市的方向，而不是总体的经济状况。还有些人批评伯南克站在了投资者一边，而不是消费者这边，认为美联储的举措可能会引发大规模的通胀。 不过一份最新研究显示，监视股市的动向也许正是伯南克此时应该做的事情。美国国家经济研究局（NBER）近日发布了一篇名为《通胀追踪投资组合》（Inflation Tracking Portfolios）的工作文件，研究了自1985年初一直到去年年末的消费价格以及一系列投资活动的变动。这篇报告的作者包括加州大学洛杉矶分校（UCLA）的经济学教授弗朗西斯•朗斯达夫，以及投资银行黑石集团（Blackrock）的两名雇员。研究发现，大多数被我们当成通胀避险工具的东西，比如黄金和房地产，都有夸大价格实际波动的倾向。就连政府发行的抗通胀公债也不能很好地预言未来的通胀。抗通胀公债价格的波动往往远远超过总体消费价格的波动。通胀最好的预言者恰恰就是股市。 该研究报告的作者们发现，从总体来看，未来的通胀往往会随着股市的走向而变动，在这一点上，股市预言通胀的能力比他们考察的任何其它因素都强。因此，如果股市接连一个月下跌的话，很可能就意味着一个月后通胀水平会降低。如果股市暴涨，则可能意味着消费价格未来也会上涨。 此外，该研究报告的作者们还发现，有些行业的通胀敏感性要高于其它行业。比如石油股往往会与通胀呈同向波动，而零售股与通胀的相关性则比较小。所以如果真想追踪通胀的话，我们需要建立一个投资组合，做多与通胀相关的行业股，做空与通胀不相关的行业股——该研究报告的作者们就是这样做的。那么，这个通胀组合对眼下有何预测呢？大体来看，通胀水平（5月份已下降0.3%）还会继续下降。报告的作者们在2011年年底就已经停止了构建那个投资组合。不过上个月石油股下跌了14%。而包括沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）和塔吉特百货（Target）在内的一些零售股却出现了上升。西尔斯百货（Sears）的股价则出现了下跌。 朗斯塔夫表示，他并不是想要对政府的货币政策发表任何说长道短。不过股票的确是未来通胀的最好的预言师。那么，一旦股市暴跌，伯南克再次像以前一样出手救市就不难理解了。考虑到五月份的情况有多糟糕，美联储说不定正酝酿着另一轮量化宽松或其它的刺激计划，至少美联储应该做好这样的准备。 译者：朴成奎 |
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke often gets criticized for overreacting to the stock market. But maybe that's exactly what he should be doing. QE2 and Operation Twist were announced after market drops. And the recent swoon in the Dow, despite rebounding yesterday, along with some rather weak economic data, have reignited new speculation that Bernanke & Co. might finally announce a new stimulus program. That's led some critics to contend that Bernanke cares more about the direction of stocks than the general economy. Others, who predict the Fed's moves will spark massive inflation, say Bernanke is choosing investors over consumers. But a new study suggests that keeping an eye on the market is exactly what Bernanke should be doing. Inflation Tracking Portfolios, which was released as a working paper by the NBER this week, looked at the movement in consumer prices and a number of various investments from the beginning of 1985 through the end of last year. The study's authors, which included UCLA economics professor Francis A. Longstaff and two employees from investment firm Blackrock, found that most things that we generally tend to think of as inflation hedges, such as gold and real estate, tend to overstate the actual moves in prices. Even Inflation-Protected Treasury bonds, nicknamed TIPs, came out as a pretty poor predictor of future inflation. Prices of TIPs tended to jump around much more than overall prices did. The best inflation oracle: the market. In general, the authors found that future inflation tends to track stocks better than anything else they looked at. So if the market dropped over the course of a month, it tends to indicate that inflation will be lower a month from now. A jump in stocks, tends to mean consumer prices will rise as well. What's more, the authors found some industries are more correlated to inflation than others. Oil stocks tend to move in the same direction as inflation; retail stocks, not as much. So if you really want to track inflation, you need to build a portfolio that long the sectors that are correlated with inflation and short the sectors that are not, which is what the authors of the study did. What is the inflation portfolio predicting now? Generally, that inflation, which dropped 0.3% in May, will continue to fall. The authors stopped constructing their portfolio at the end of 2011. But oil stocks are down 14% in the past month. A number of retailing stocks, on the other handing including Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are up. Sears (SHLD) is down. Longstaff says he wasn't looking to make any statement about monetary policy. But if stocks are really the best indicator of future inflation, then it seems to make sense that Bernanke would jump to action, as he has, when stocks have dropped. And given how bad May was, another QE or some other round of Fed stimulus is probably on its way, or at least it should be. |
