担心意大利的14个理由

    当人们专注于最近西班牙银行业获得的1000亿欧元信贷额度用于资本重整时，当投资者还在消化希腊大选结果时，我们认为有必要将意大利的宏观经济失衡和风险置于整个大背景中，这很重要。近年来意大利一直被列为“欧猪五国”（PIIGS）之一；由于该国的经济规模，我们向来将其视为欧洲最大的潜在风险。意大利是全球第七大经济体，欧洲第四大经济体和欧元区第三大经济体。

    意大利庞大的债务规模（1.9万亿欧元，债务/GDP比率120%）、未来12个月内需要展期的债务如山（近4000亿欧元）以及市场对意大利总理马里奥•蒙蒂降低财政赤字、拉动经济增长的信心开始动摇，这些因素都可能导致意大利成为欧洲下一张倒下的多米诺骨牌。

    此外，还有对意大利信用可靠度的担心：近期意大利主权债务CDS利差以及10年期国债收益率都已接近周期高点，这正是意大利在基本面持续恶化的情况下民间忧虑加深的反映——GDP连续三个季度呈现下降；失业率上升（特别是年轻人的失业率）；劳动力市场竞争力弱化；对主要贸易伙伴国的商品出口竞争更激烈。虽然零售额等数据相对保持良好（至少今年相比欧元区是这样），我们基本上认为是储蓄率下降和消费信贷的极速增长在支撑着这些数据，预计很快就会回到平均水平；服务和制造业数据持续为负，而且我们看不到这种落后于欧元区的表现将会有中长期的大幅反弹。

    具体到风险信号。意大利10年期收益率仍高企于6%左右，5年期CDS报546个基点，仅略低于西班牙CDS的614个基点。我们相信所有这些意味着未来3-5年意大利经济面临的压力上升。意大利不仅会像所有的欧元区成员国一样，看到经济疲软在整个欧元区的溢出效应——因为大多数国家的主要贸易伙伴国是欧盟成员国——而且其较高的偿债成本也会让政府有加税压力以满足偿债资金需求，所有这些都会对意大利整体经济带来向下压力。而且，这出现在意大利国会对蒙蒂的信任发生动摇、反对紧缩的底层力量（罢工和骚乱）依然强大之时。

    不过，评估意大利时不得不提的可取之处是去年该国的公共赤字/GDP比率为-3.9%，明显好于西班牙的-8.9%。或许到2013年意大利就能降到《增长与稳定公约》（Growth and Stability Pact）规定的-3%，但我们认为道路仍然充满挑战。如果综合考虑发布紧缩政策的挑战、较高的偿债成本以及信贷紧缩环境下欧元区弱国的溢出效应，意大利今明两年的增速或不及预期，而违约风险上升可能需要欧盟官员实施超过现有机制救助能力的救助方案。如果市场对意大利主权债务和银行业危机的担忧达到一触即发的地步，欧元债券或许是唯一可行的解决方案。

    下面列出意大利最大的十四项宏观经济失衡和风险：

    沉重的债务负担——首先让我们来看看意大利的债务状况。债务/GDP比率120%，在欧洲仅次于希腊，为第二高。仅未来12个月，意大利所需偿付的债务本息就将达到4000亿欧元。

    With eyes focused on Spain's recent €100 billion credit line to recapitalize its banks and investors digesting the results of the Greek elections last weekend, we thought it's important to contextualize the macroeconomic imbalances and risks in Italy. Italy has long been grouped squarely as a member of the PIIGS, and is a country we've persistently signaled as the largest potential risk threat in Europe, due in particular to the size of its economy, as the seventh-largest global economy, the fourth-largest in Europe, or the third-largest in the Eurozone.

    The main glaring risk threats that could propel Italy down the path to become Europe's next domino is the size of country's outstanding debt (at €1.9 trillion or 120% of GDP); the mountain of debt it has to roll over in the next 12 months (nearly €400 billion); and the market's cracking credibility around Prime Minister Mario Monti's ability to reduce the country's fiscal footprint and spur growth.

    Further, fear around Italy's creditworthiness, which has recently been expressed by near cycle highs in sovereign CDS spreads and government yields on the 10-year bond, follow some rather glaring negative fundamentals over recent quarters and years: declining GDP over the last three consecutive quarters; a rising unemployment rate (especially among its youth); deterioration in labor market competitiveness; and increased competition for export goods to its key trading partners. And while figures such as retail sales have held up relatively well (at least this year compared to the Eurozone), we largely see the number supported by declines in the savings rate and the extreme growth in consumer credit, which we expect to revert to the mean; service and manufacturing figures show a decidedly negative trend and we don't see the underperformance versus the Eurozone aggregate materially rebounding over the intermediate to longer term.

    Specific to risk signals, Italy's 10-year yield remains elevated around 6%, with 5-year CDS trading at 546 basis points, or just under Spain's CDS at 614bps. We believe all this spells increased pressure on the Italian economy to grow over the next 3-5 years. Not only will Italy, like all EU members, see spillover effects from economic weakness throughout the region --as most countries' main trading partners are fellow EU members -- but the higher cost to service its debt will put more pressure on politicians to raise taxes to meet funding requirements, all of which will put further downside pressures on the overall economy. And this comes at a time in which Monti's credibility in parliament is shaking and foot power (strikes and riots) remains strong across a populous that is largely against austerity.

    One saving grace to keep in mind when assessing Italy is that its public deficit stands at -3.9% of GDP as of last year compared to Spain's at -8.9%. Italy may in fact be compliant with the Growth and Stability Pact limit of -3% by 2013, yet we think the road will be challenged. When one combines the challenges of issuing austerity, the higher cost to service debt, and the spillover effects from struggling peer economies with a tighter credit environment, Italy is likely to shoot below its growth forecasts this year and next, while heightened default fears may call Eurocrats to act on a bailout that is greater than the capabilities of the existing bailout facilities. Eurobonds may be the only viable solution should the market's fear of Italy's sovereign and banking risks reach a precipice.

    Here are Italy's greatest macroeconomic imbalances and risks:

    Debt's Drag- We begin by looking at Italy's debt profile. At 120% (as a % of GDP) –the second highest in Europe behind Greece—its debt servicing load will equate to €400 billion over the next 12 months alone.